STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 18, 2019: The stock market rallied from its short-term oversold readings last week to the surprise of many. To simplify things, I’ve decided to reduce the number of important indicators that I follow for swing trading in order to make clearer decisions. My experience is that too many indicators lead to more confusion and less action on a daily basis. And I’ve chosen the three indicators that are both less followed, more accurate, and more frequent in producing high-probability trading signals.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The market continues to rally in an almost “straight up” fashion. Aside from last week’s mild “oversold” reading, there hasn’t been much, if any, resistance to the advance. And in doing so, it has frustrated many chartists and technical market players. The smart thing here is to wait for the next “oversold” reading from the three key indicators above and trade lightly with the objective to “taking the money and run.” The time for taking longer term investment positions was back in December.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: investing, investing tips, investments, retirement, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading advice, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 10, 2019: The stock market showed some downside action with a turnaround near the close of Friday. Two of the internal oscillators are in “oversold” territory and may suggest that the downside pressure should subside near-term. But the other internal indicators (new choices to reflect other perspectives of the market) suggest that this is all short-term action that needs more time to set up properly for a stronger move in either direction.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The market may have hit a very short-term bottom on Friday but any major moves will require more time to set up properly. This may be a good time to step aside and let time create a better opportunity to trade.
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 4, 2019: The stock market has continued its strong, broad-based rally from the Christmas lows by going practically straight up. But now is the time for a correction of this rally (most likely starting after the State of the Union address Tuesday) and based on the momentum, I’d expect it to be more of a sideways, stalling decline than a steep drop which serves the purpose of chewing up time. But a good buying opportunity will likely arise from the next oversold reading.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The market may be setting itself up for a decline starting after Trump gives his State of the Union speech. This correction may not amount to a lot of points to the downside, but I’d be a buyer on the next oversold bottom. I think that the December lows were an important pivot point for this market and a continuation of the Bull Market.
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JANUARY 27, 2019: The stock market experienced a choppy week ending up about where it started. In the process, it has worked out some of its overbought condition. The internal indicators are largely neutral which suggests that the market can go in either direction with the same probability – either up towards heavy resistance or down for a 50% retracement.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: It’s anyone’s guess whether the market corrects from here or rallies and then corrects. Perhaps there will be a tradable low in mid-February to take new positions on the long side. But momentum still appears strong to the upside and it’s a tough bet trying to play the downside. The December low’s extreme technical readings may have put in a solid bottom for many months.
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 30, 2018: The stock market is churning at a high consolidation area which neither good or bad. While it may seem like the market is overdue for a correction after this long rally, it still shows resiliency in the face of a mixed bag of political and economic news. With the three timing indicators set almost identically around the neutral reading of “50,” I’d expect the market to either correct into a short-term bottom or rally into resistance and a short-term top. But most of all, there is nothing to do right now.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 47 or “Neutral.” This makes the market within striking range of a quick move to “Extreme Fear” under 25 and a chance to a short-term tradable rally to participate in.
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JULY 14, 2018: The market presented a tricky, short-term trading opportunity on July 3rd. It came from a semi-oversold condition which suggests that the rally will not be strong. So far, it appears as if the market can still go in either direction with the same degree of certainty. This is a time to be on the sidelines waiting for the next opportunity to set up. The Volatility Indicator will have to traverse across its oscillator from “overbought” to “oversold” which will probably take over a week to happen.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 47 or “neutral.” I’m still awaiting for a quick move into the “Extremely Fear” area in order to feel like the conditions are ripe for a more sustainable rally. So, we continue to wait for a better trading opportunity to the upside.
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This indicator is labeled as being in the “Neutral” zone right now. Ideal buying opportunities have only occurred when the general market has been in the “Extreme Fear” zone. This suggests that the market needs more time and greater fear in order to set itself up for a better intermediate-term buying opportunity. (Source: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed)
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR OCTOBER 3, 2016: The stock market has been climbing and dropping in the same price range for several weeks now. There isn’t a clear trend and the current market is neutral in terms of overbought vs. oversold. With the national election only a month away, I suspect that the markets will make a clearer trend before and then afterwards. So if we rally into the election, expect the opposite to occur after the election and vice versa. For now, keep your powder dry and wait for a better entry point.
Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The internal indicators are neutral and trending down slightly. This would suggest that the market is likely to decline over the near term with the chance of reaching an oversold condition shortly. That would set up a rally to challenge and maybe exceed the all-time highs as we approach the elections. But right now isn’t an attractive time to buy unless we can get some more bearishness and lower prices.
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While this indicator is labeled as being in the “Fear” zone, the ideal buying opportunities have occurred when the general market has been in the “Extreme Fear” zone. This suggests that the market needs more time and greater fear in order to set itself up for a better intermediate-term buying opportunity. (Source: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed)
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 18, 2016: The stock market has retreated and bounced around for the last few weeks. The internal indicators are near the lower range and could reach oversold readings if the market should fall in the coming days. Look for weakness early this week with the opportunity to buy near the end of the week for another run to new highs. If that scenario doesn’t set up that way, then step aside and let the market create a different kind of opportunity further down the road.
Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The internal indicators are neutral but within range of a bottom. While the readings have not been very severe to the downside, the length of time in this lower range suggests that a move up should be coming soon. It is based on that factor, that I’d be ready to move into action should we see weakness at the beginning of next week.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy Tags: 401k, annuities, insurance, investing, investing tips, investments, life insurance, money, pension plan, QQQ, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, tony robbins, trading, trading tips, wall street