Archive for July, 2017


July 30th, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JULY 29, 2017: The stock market has corrected internally while not giving much in price as evidenced by the near oversold readings in the 5 indicators listed below. This suggests that another rally could be coming soon after another drop next week. But with the large decline in the Dow Jones Transportation Average last week, I’d be careful about taking larger permanent positions. The next set-up to the upside will likely be a sharp quick rally at best.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:


THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Greed” after being in the “Extreme Greed” range for 3 days last week. This suggests that there is enough euphoria among market participants to warrant extreme caution. But with the internal indicators that I follow approaching “oversold” readings, I’d be looking for any decline in the next few days to be only temporary. This could be just another “dip” worth buying in this seemingly endless Bull Market.


July 26th, 2017 Comments off

The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” reading is in the “Extreme Greed” range at 81. This indicator is now suggesting that the general stock market is in the danger zone. This means that it’s not the time to buy in order to go long equities. Instead, it’s a probably best to lightened up on extended positions and reduce your risk.

And while the market may correct, bottom, and return to this same price level, it’s usually prudent to begin taking your gains especially when the sentiment is overextended like it is now. When the technicals and the sentiment confirm each other, it’s smart to anticipate an immediate trend change. That doesn’t necessarily mean going short because that in itself is a whole different game to play for most.

Note: A chapter in my book, Wall Street Craps: How to Play Today’s Hot & Cold Stock Market for Fast Money With Less Risk, deals with the unexpected unique challenges of playing the short vs. the traditional long game of stock market investing & the dangers of leveraged short Exchange-Traded Funds.


July 16th, 2017 Comments off

The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” reading is in the “Greed” range at 64. This indicator leaves room for the market to rally further until it reaches unsafe territory in the “Extreme Greed” area.

A few weeks ago, this indicator gave a one-day reading of 25 in the “Extreme Fear” range. That proved to be the bottom in retrospect as this bull market continues to power through. With that in mind, it’s probably wise to avoid any short positions and await the next oversold reading in the breadth oscillators or an “Extreme Fear” reading below 26 in the Fear/Greed Sentiment Index in order to take additional long positions.

But at this point, taking profits would not be such an unwise thing to do in anticipation of the next sharp downdraft with seems likely to occur after an “obvious” piece of good public news (like the passing of the new health act).