Archive

Posts Tagged ‘stock market timing’

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY APRIL 6, 2019

April 7th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR APRIL 6, 2019: The stock market is now at the top of its trading range with all 5 internal indicators in “overbought” territory. This usually suggests that the market will fail on its first attempt to break above this current price range. But with the persistent strength of this market, it would be risky to bet on an immediate downturn. Until there are more obvious non-confirmations and/or a strong downside reversal, the Bulls will still have the upper-hand on this market.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The market appears to be setting itself up for an eventual upside breakout on the news of a trade deal with China. But could this event become the trigger for a downside reversal on high volume? That’s the question that I’d be anticipating as I view this market in the current news environment remembering the words and wisdom of the late Joseph E. Granville, “the obvious is obviously wrong.”

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MARCH 12, 2019

March 12th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MARCH 12, 2019: The stock market made a nice short-term bottom last Friday after a sustained move down. Although the prices didn’t go down much, the internal indicators were clearly oversold. My only hesitation was that the “Volatility Indicator” was only mid-range and I was concerned that the selling would continue for one to two more day. But I was wrong.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The market may have reached a bottom that could propel the general market to new highs. It is now primed to “climb the wall of worry” to new highs without much resistance. For those like me who missed it, there may not be a good place to reenter the market here.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FEBRUARY 18, 2019

February 19th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 18, 2019: The stock market rallied from its short-term oversold readings last week to the surprise of many. To simplify things, I’ve decided to reduce the number of important indicators that I follow for swing trading in order to make clearer decisions. My experience is that too many indicators lead to more confusion and less action on a daily basis. And I’ve chosen the three indicators that are both less followed, more accurate, and more frequent in producing high-probability trading signals.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The market continues to rally in an almost “straight up” fashion. Aside from last week’s mild “oversold” reading, there hasn’t been much, if any, resistance to the advance. And in doing so, it has frustrated many chartists and technical market players. The smart thing here is to wait for the next “oversold” reading from the three key indicators above and trade lightly with the objective to “taking the money and run.” The time for taking longer term investment positions was back in December.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FEBRUARY 10, 2019

February 10th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 10, 2019: The stock market showed some downside action with a turnaround near the close of Friday. Two of the internal oscillators are in “oversold” territory and may suggest that the downside pressure should subside near-term. But the other internal indicators (new choices to reflect other perspectives of the market) suggest that this is all short-term action that needs more time to set up properly for a stronger move in either direction.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The market may have hit a very short-term bottom on Friday but any major moves will require more time to set up properly. This may be a good time to step aside and let time create a better opportunity to trade.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FEBRUARY 4, 2019

February 5th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 4, 2019: The stock market has continued its strong, broad-based rally from the Christmas lows by going practically straight up. But now is the time for a correction of this rally (most likely starting after the State of the Union address Tuesday) and based on the momentum, I’d expect it to be more of a sideways, stalling decline than a steep drop which serves the purpose of chewing up time. But a good buying opportunity will likely arise from the next oversold reading.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The market may be setting itself up for a decline starting after Trump gives his State of the Union speech. This correction may not amount to a lot of points to the downside, but I’d be a buyer on the next oversold bottom. I think that the December lows were an important pivot point for this market and a continuation of the Bull Market.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JANUARY 27, 2019

January 27th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JANUARY 27, 2019: The stock market experienced a choppy week ending up about where it started. In the process, it has worked out some of its overbought condition. The internal indicators are largely neutral which suggests that the market can go in either direction with the same probability – either up towards heavy resistance or down for a 50% retracement.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: It’s anyone’s guess whether the market corrects from here or rallies and then corrects. Perhaps there will be a tradable low in mid-February to take new positions on the long side. But momentum still appears strong to the upside and it’s a tough bet trying to play the downside. The December low’s extreme technical readings may have put in a solid bottom for many months.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 9, 2018

December 9th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 9, 2018: The stock market has shown tremendous volatility this past week. Since Black Friday after Thanksgiving, the market has gone up 6 days followed by sharp declines for the last 3 days. One might expect that the market may find a short-term bottom either Tuesday or Wednesday based on time symmetry. And based on the internal indicators listed below, a bottom will also require 2 to 4 more days of decline before reaching oversold readings.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 11 or “Extreme Fear.” The sentiment is certainly negative as this indicator has remained in the negative territory for a couple of months now. The trading environment is very tricky and will punish anyone who is on the wrong side of the market. If you have the temperament to trade, you’ll find lots of opportunities for some fast money. But for most people, this is a market to avoid until it calms down and shows more signs of capitulation. The “blood” is not quite “on the street” but it’s getting there. Be careful out there!

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 18, 2018

November 18th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 18, 2018: The stock market appears to be in the process of retesting its October bottom. For now, it’s filled the upside gaps on its most recent move down. That means that a rally could possibly start from this area right now. Or it could begin down again, reach oversold conditions, and successfully test the October bottom. That kind of process would probably take place on the week following Thanksgiving.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 10 or “Extreme Fear.” It has been in this range for nearly a month and has shifted the sentiment to the negative. That means that a rally starting from this area could last several weeks or months. But the current short-term climate makes me think that catching the absolute bottom will be tricky as always. And a smart, well thought out betting strategy will be important in order to take positions without risk missing the opportunity. This requires that a trader pays close attention over the next two weeks.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 10, 2018

November 10th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 10, 2018: The stock market made a huge upside move in response to the election results on Wednesday. The question is whether that move signified a breakout to a new highs or a last grasp top for the latest bounce. Since this is anyone’s guess, the next entry point would likely be an oversold condition in the majority of breadth indicators. But a strong move down from here and a resumption of October’s down move would certainly change the character of the market again. This is a time for caution, as well as a time for opportunity for those willing to accept the risks and stomach the volatility.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 18 or “Extreme Fear.” While this is still in the “Extreme Fear” category, it is far off of the lows from the previous two weeks. This might suggest that the market is simply retracing its strong move up with a chance of forming another pivot bottom in about 5-10 trading days. So be alert and ready to act on a brief buying opportunity ahead.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 3, 2018

November 3rd, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 3, 2018: The stock market had a key reversal on Monday that carried over all the way until Friday morning. In the process, it has recovered much of its losses over the month. Right now, several of the breadth indicators have short-term overbought readings suggesting that a retest of the previous lows could be in the making. If we are to assume that the bull market is only in a correction mode, then it would make sense to take positions on weakness as it nears last Monday’s previous lows. If that retest comes on light volume, then a reversal to the upside is even more likely.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 7 or “Extreme Fear.” This reading suggests that there is plenty of room for the market to rally. This time of year can be particularly tricky, but present several trading opportunities. But not everyone is suited for playing this much volatility and I happen to fall into that category. But a light volume retest of the previous lows would present a lower-risk entry point for the next ride up. But you never know about this market. It may just continue to go straight up from here.