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WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 26, 2016

December 26th, 2016 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 26, 2016: The stock market is still hovering near its all-time highs with one more closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average likely in the coming week to 10 days. But keep in mind that this time of the year can be very tricky and volatile. I see this week as the set up for the first week of the year which may be the final high for the intermediate term. Or we could decline into next week setting up a bottom during the first week of January with a rally into March. Be prepared for either kind of scenario.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Greed” which still makes me think that we have one more rally and revisit into the “Extreme Greed” area. With the internal breadth indicator reading “neutral,” I believe that this will be a week of non-action. On the other hand, anticipate the first week of the year to be eventful and possibly a short-term scare or longer term non-confirmation intermediate top. Either could happen in about 7-10 days.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – DECEMBER 22, 2016

December 22nd, 2016 Comments off

Today’sĀ  “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index” reading has moved from “Extreme Greed” to “Greed” as of this week. Any return to new highs by the Major Indices will most likely move the needle back into the “Extreme Greed” territory. However, this second return to “Extreme Greed” territory will most likely signal the final rally of this move. Expect the first weeks of January to be tricky and counter-intuitive.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 18, 2016

December 18th, 2016 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 18, 2016: The stock market continues to hover near its all-time highs in the majority of indexes. With the internal breadth indicators nearing “oversold” readings, it looks like a brief decline of maybe one or two trading sessions will lead to another run to new highs and beyond. While most of the buying power has been spent on this present rally, a quick trade to the upside may be worth a bet until the end of the year.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Extreme Greed” and means that this is more a time to sell than to buy. But with the internal breadth indicators nearing “oversold,” it looks we will get our “Santa Claus Rally” right on cue for a ride up until New Years Eve. But after that, the reality of an overbought, over-valued, and over-loved market will bring the correction or even an end to the intermediate-term rally since the Election.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – DECEMBER 10, 2016

December 10th, 2016 Comments off

fear-and-greed-december-9Last week’s stock market strategy report said that the general market was surprisingly “oversold” and ready for an extension of the post-election rally. We certainly got that rally and more with the “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index” pushing into the “Extreme Greed” range for all 5 days. I would still expect a few days with readings over 90 before this rally has exhausted itself. But this is still no place to be going long and only the pros should consider heavy betting on the downside. If you’re inclined to trade, this may be a time to step aside and let the market zig-zag higher with non-confirmations or zig-zag lower into another short-term oversold condition. Either of these scenarios appears to be more than a week away. So stay on the sidelines and let the market set itself up for the next trading opportunity.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY ā€“ DECEMBER 4, 2016

December 3rd, 2016 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 4, 2016: The stock market has been correcting its move from the election lows over the past several days. With the majority of internal breadth indicators at “oversold” readings, a short-term rally should begin now. This final rally should mark the end of the big move from February’s low. Look for this rally to be lead by the oil stocks and unconfirmed by the leading technology stocks which typically signals the end of a major move.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Greed” after a short stint in the “Extreme Greed” territory. If we get a rally from right here, the new readings should mostly be in the “Extreme Greed” area and signal a time to get out of the market for the intermediate term. Expect a decline after this next rally to last two to three months and probably retract all of the “Trump Rally” and possibly more. But for now, look for one more short-term rally with several non-confirmations to finish this major move from the February lows.