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WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JANUARY 12, 2019

January 12th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JANUARY 12, 2019: The stock market continued its strong bounce from the December 26th lows. All internal indicators show “overbought” readings which suggests both strength and possible exhaustion. There doesn’t appear to be any catalyst for a decline, but it’s probably too late to ride this current trend up without a small correction to neutralize these “overbought” conditions.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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TIME SYMMETRY: The market declined from December 3rd to December 26 which was a period of 23 calendar days or 16 trading days. Projecting out from the December 26th low, the upcoming time symmetry top should occur either on Thursday January 17 or Friday January 18.

THE BOTTOM LINE: The time to buy was in late December and it was a very tricky bottom indeed. It was a reminder of how difficult it is to go long after a 1000 point up day, but that would have been the preferred tactic at the time.

If I had to guess, I would anticipate a decline starting late this coming week to a closing Dow low below the January 3rd (Apple) low of 22,686.22. Then a new rally could take the market back up to the 200-day moving average around Dow 24000 or S&P 500 2700. For now, keep your powder dry for a possible entry to the long side in another few weeks.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JANUARY 6, 2019

January 6th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JANUARY 6, 2019: The stock market has made several radical intraday moves in the last month that has been unnerving to many traders and investors like myself. At the present time, the internal indicators have moved into “overbought” territory and can remain there for another one to two days before trending lower. This means that a short-term top can be anticipated after a few more days of advance.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 16 or “Extreme Fear.”  But this is a far stronger reading than the “2” reading of December 24th, just before the December 26th bottom. This suggests that the market can still move in either direction but has much more room to the upside. Based on the indicators and cycles, I’d anticipate a few more days to the upside before there is an attempt to retest the December 26 or January 3rd bottoms.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 25, 2018

December 25th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 25, 2018: The stock market gave us one chance to get out on Wednesday morning before the Fed’s announcement. But after the Chairman Powell’s briefing, the market tanked hard on the remainder of Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Monday of Christmas Eve Day. Needless to say, there was no “Santa Claus Rally” and investors are in total shock mode right now. As the internal indicators show, this is a gradual “crash” up to now and when it finally stops is anyone’s guess.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 2 or “Extreme Fear.” This confirms the action of the internal indicators above and suggests that we are near an internal low for the market. We may get a short and sharp rally soon, but in all likelihood we should see another visit to the established lows. It may take a classic “crash” in order for the market to finally hit bottom and reverse its downward trend. And with the most recent figures, that is going to take an intraday drop exceeding 1000 Dow points which is going to be scary. If I had to guess, I’d say that a rally should start on Friday December 28th after tax-selling season finally ends.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 16, 2018

December 15th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 16, 2018: The stock market continued its downward move by closing at its lows for this correction. With the majority of internal indicators showing readings in the 30s, a short-term bottom can be expected on Monday or Tuesday. That should set up the market for its anticipated “Santa Claus Rally.”

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 8 or “Extreme Fear.” This single digit reading after two months of “Extreme Fear” readings overall is sufficient to indicate that the general market is unloved and the sentiment has been severe enough it both duration and direction. This sets up the market for a year-end rally starting sometime between Tuesday and Thursday of this week.

Note: Thursday would match the recent 18-day cycle of lows from October 29 to November 23 in terms of number of trading days. Tuesday would mark the matching number of calendar days. Thus, a cyclical low can be anticipated between Tuesday and Thursday of this week. But remember that it will be tricky catching the exact bottom for it may mean trying to catch a “falling knife.”

POSSIBLE INTERMEDIATE-TERM BOTTOM NEXT WEEK

November 23rd, 2018 Comments off

POSSIBLE POST-THANKSGIVING BUYING OPPORTUNITY

November 14th, 2018 Comments off

BRADLEY SIDEROGRAPH STOCK MARKET FORECAST FOR 2017

November 28th, 2016 Comments off

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Updated Bradley Turn Dates for May-June 2015

May 18th, 2015 Comments off

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2015 Bradley Turns Dates for the S&P 500 – The Classic Version

April 16th, 2015 Comments off

classic bradley

STOCK MARKET TIMING TIP #8: FINE-TUNE YOUR BETTING STRATEGY!

January 11th, 2012 Comments off

FINE-TUNE YOUR BETTING STRATEGY: After you have gained valuable experience in trading, you can adjust your betting strategy to suit your own individual preferences.

For example: In my own trading account, I find it easier to buy three times over a three to five day period. This means that I don’t necessarily buy every day during the period of time that I identify as a bottom area. I will also make my first bet only one unit. I do this in order to eliminate the tendency to miss moves by wanting to time the market perfectly. Then I’ll make my second and third bets equal to two units, bringing my total for any one position to five betting units.

This strategy works for me because I’ve found that the hardest bet to make is always the first one. This 1-2-2 betting strategy also makes it easier to sell effectively if I choose to leave this particular market position in the same gradual progression. (Note: The 1-2-2 progression appeals to our basic antsy, fear-based behavior when it comes to trading the stock market. On the buying side, we are often afraid of missing out on an opportunity but scared of being too early. On the selling side, we can be fearful of losing a profit and having it turn into a loss. But at the same time, we are afraid of selling too early and losing out on the potential for further profits.)

Comment: If all of this seems a little confusing, then simply make of your bets small ones. I call these the “$5 Bets.” This is the smallest denomination of a betting unit and is one that any player with a $100 bankroll can feel comfortable about playing. Remember that the key to playing freely lies in not being afraid to lose – hence the $5 bet.

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“To obtain better than average investment results over a long pull requires a policy of selection or operation possessing a twofold merit: (1) It must meet objective or rational tests of underlying soundness; and (2) it must be different from the policy followed by most investors or speculators.”

Benjamin Graham ~ Economist & Professional Investor (1894-1976)