Archive

Posts Tagged ‘insurance’

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MAY 19, 2018

May 20th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MAY 19, 2018: The internal indicators of the stock market have been trending down the last few days, chewing up time, and possibly setting itself up for another trading bottom as early as late next week. Another plausible scenario is for next week to produce a bounce with a more stable bottom about two weeks out. In any event, there is nothing to do but wait for the next set-up and that can only happen with a bout of bad news.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 52 or “Neutral.” This doesn’t really tell you anything except that it has probably seen the worst in terms of extreme negative sentiment. One more quick trip to the “Extreme Fear” area will probably be all that it takes for another tradable intermediate term bottom.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY APRIL 28, 2018

April 28th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR APRIL 28, 2018: The stock market may be setting itself up for an intermediate-term bottom next week. The internal breadth indicators below are all close to oversold readings and additional weakness is sure to trigger buy signals. If a decline next week starts to materialize, then look at it as an opportunity to go long and ignore the “bad news” that has to happen in order to create the public selling. The trick will be if this happens mostly on Friday when it will take more guts to make trading commitments over an uncertain weekend.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 40 or “Fear.” This reading is after it has been in the “Extreme Fear” range for many weeks. I would expect a brief one or two day return to the “Extreme Fear” zone to coincide with a new intermediate buy signal on any weakness next week. If so, this “correction” will have scared enough weak hands out of the long game with only strong hands left to ride the next rally up. Of course, if we rally straight up from here then this scenario goes out the window and the deck will be “shuffled” once again.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – APRIL 14, 2018

April 14th, 2018 Comments off

The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” has a current reading of 23 which is in the “Extreme Fear” zone. This suggests that the market is in a buying range and not a selling range. Tactically, this means that you should either buy or hold depending on your situation.

This indicator has remained in the “Extreme Fear” area for an abnormally long time. I would guess that it will leave this “oversold” area shortly and not return for some time. (After perhaps, one more spike down)

I would look to buy on any 2 to 3 day weakness that is accompanied by “obvious bad news” as the cover story for a good bottom in the market. I think that the next retest of the recent bottoms will be successful and that a sharp rally should follow. The only trick will be if the weakness occurs on a Friday where traders will have to sweat out the weekend of potentially more bad news.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MARCH 25, 2018

March 25th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MARCH 25, 2018: The stock market is setting itself up for a climatic bottom over the short-term. Breadth indicators are in “oversold” territory with the chance of become even more oversold if the market should sell-off on Monday-Tuesday. While a market panic is difficult to buy into, it may still be the proper strategy for buying low and selling high. But the proper to tactic would be to buy in smaller increments spread over 3-5 days during periods of weakness. This takes discipline that few amateurs possess.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 7 or “Extreme Fear.” With any weakness on Monday, this indicator will have the lowest reading in several years indicating a potential intermediate term bottom. To spread the risk, a wise trader should buy a combination of diversified broad-based ETFs and strong Blue-Chip dividend-paying stocks (example: Exxon, Microsoft, Apple, Wells Fargo). The first step would be to buy on extreme weakness in small pilot positions and add gradually. If a market panic should occur, it may take a few days for the market to stabilize or bounce. And then there is the possibility of a final wave down which a trader must be anticipate when conditions become so extreme as they are now.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – MARCH 2, 2018

March 1st, 2018 Comments off

The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” reading has a current reading of 8 which is well into the “Extreme Fear” zone. This suggests that the market is in a buying range and not a selling range. Tactically, this means that you should either buy or hold depending on your situation.

This indicator has remained in the “Extreme Fear” area for several weeks now. This is very abnormal and suggests that we have corrected long enough in terms of time. But the charts of the major indexes don’t appear to have declined enough in terms of price.

Today’s “Extreme Fear” reading means that it’s time to start taking pilot positions if you’re under-invested in preparation for a rally to challenge the old highs. A bottom may likely appear on either Friday or Monday but actually picking that bottom will be hard to do as always. You will have sweaty palms from the fear of taking a risk here, but it’s about time for the market to get out of the “Extreme Fear” zone. It’s been here too long.

Note: This reading of 8 is the lowest of this current down cycle and may mark the bottom of this correction.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FEBRUARY 5, 2018

February 5th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 5, 2018: The stock market is currently “oversold” in all of the internal indicators. Therefore, the market can hit a short-term bottom as early as Tuesday. And over the past several years, the market has rebounded from similar bottoms without retesting. But what is different now is how far and long the market has advanced in the post-election period. If you want to play for a fast money trade, I’d expect a rally to come in the next 5 trading sessions and likely coincide with a bounce off of the 200-day moving average in the S&P 500.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 40 or “Greed.” I would expect the next short-term bottom to occur when this indicator is below a reading of 25 in “Extreme Fear” territory. That could happen in the next few days and be worth the risk for a quick ride up to the old highs. My favorite trading vehicle because of its diversification and low-correlation to interest rates would be the QQQ Exchange Traded Fund in the area of 148-150.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – JANUARY 20, 2018

January 20th, 2018 Comments off

The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” reading has a current reading of 80 which is in the “Extreme Greed” zone. This suggests that the market is in a selling range and not a buying range. Tactically, this means that you should either sell or hold depending on your situation.

This indicator has remained in the “Extreme Greed” area for most of last week. However, this gauge was in the “neutral” zone not too long ago. But we never got into the “Fear” range with a chance to reload for this ride to the upside.

Today’s “Extreme Greed” reading means that it’s time to be on the sidelines waiting for the sentiment to become more negative and present another buying opportunity. That’s going to take a few weeks at a minimum.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – DECEMBER 31, 2017

December 31st, 2017 Comments off

The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” reading has a current reading of 53 which is in the “Neutral” zone. This allows the market to go in either direction so it is neither a selling or a buying area.

This indicator has remained in the “Greed” area for most of December which is surprising when you consider the duration and extent of this rally. While recent buying opportunities have come when this indicator gets a reading of 25 or lower, the market may continue to rally without any resistance.

Today’s “Neutral” reading is a small move in the direction towards “Extreme Fear” and may be suggesting that an oversold/pessimistic bottom is coming in the first week or two of 2018. That would present a chance to get back onboard the market for another ride up to new highs.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 12, 2017

November 12th, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 12, 2017: The stock market has experienced a short correction in its rally since the August bottom. The internal indicators are slightly oversold and can support a continuation of the rally with the aid of any good news. But ideally, if the market continues to correct, it will set up a better buying opportunity around Thanksgiving or in the seasonal bottoming time around mid-December. For now, it looks like a good time to wait for a better entry point for a ride up into the New Year.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Neutral” after a long stay in the both the “Greed” and “Extreme Greed” territory. But a quick move lower into the “Extreme Fear” would probably present a good buying opportunity. I’m inclined to wait for such a time especially when that reading coincides with oversold readings in the internal indicators above. So for now, it’s a time for patience.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY OCTOBER 21, 2017

October 21st, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR OCTOBER 21, 2017: The stock market continues to march upwards fueled by good news on the tax reform front. This rally has continued while many internal indicators have been reaching “oversold” levels. This would not appear to make any sense at all. Because of these confusing signals in the general market, it might be better to be on the sidelines until oversold indicators match up with market bottoms, not market tops.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Extreme Greed” after a short stay in the “Greed” territory. This is a simple indicator that guides an investor into the foundational discipline of buying low and selling high. Based on this indicator, this is not a “buy low” scenario, but instead a “sell high” environment. But more importantly, this is a unique time of a market with few, if any, remaining bears and almost total agreement on the bullish side. It’s just a matter of how long it can remain that way and what will be the trigger that finally creates a significant decline. But the truth is that no one really knows!