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WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY AUGUST 25, 2024

August 25th, 2024 Comments off
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The stock market has made a dramatic recovery from its sharp decline last month. However, this could be the ideal setup for a classic Dow Theory Sell Signal. A new closing high the DJIA over 41,198.08 will not be confirmed by the NDX, DJTA, and the popular Magnificent 7, three prominent indicators. The ideal cover story is also present with the new Kennedy/Trump alliance and the Fed’s announcement of a cut in interest rates. This could all occur as early as Monday so watch the last hour of trading with the idea of taking pilot positions on the sell side if a rally comes without significant volume. Note: Be careful since Wednesday’s NVDA announcements may trigger another leg up as well.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 76. This suggests that there may be some more time left to this rally (1-2 weeks) since this indicator is still in a rising trend.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Neutral” territory with a reading of 53. This does not mean that it is an ideal time to short the market. In fact, this indicator is best used for finding bottoms, not tops. It did another good job of spotting this current rally.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY AUGUST 3, 2024

August 3rd, 2024 Comments off
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The stock market continues to correct for the last 15 trading sessions. This is a time match from the previous correction with the possibility that Friday marked the end of the decline. The Fear/Greed Index seems to agree that one more lower close on Monday might mark the bottom of this decline and the start of the Elliot Wave #5 to ATHs. However, the NYSE McClellan Summation Index is clustering in the overbought region and suggests the opposite – that a decline of a few weeks is due to reverse the upward trend in breadth numbers.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 81. This suggests that a decline is due to occur over the next few weeks to correct the upward trend in breadth statistics.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Fear” territory with a reading of 27. A close below 25 would take this widely-followed indicator into the “Extreme Fear” area that has marked the bottom of all corrections. Note: Major corrections end when this Index is below a reading of 5.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JUNE 19, 2024

June 19th, 2024 Comments off
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The stock market has been continuing its relentless march upwards in terms of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Indexes. At the same time, the Advance/Decline Line, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average have not confirmed that same strength. This presents a time to be extra careful about trading the upside for too long of a time and trading the downside too early or in the wrong sectors.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 22. This clearly means that a bottom is closer than a top. This is a rare occurrence when many major indexes are making new highs.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Fear” territory with a reading of 42. This means that the market could head lower and reach a bottom soon. Or the market can head higher for a much longer period of time.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY AUGUST 23, 2022

August 24th, 2022 Comments off
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The stock market has declined sharply from its rally highs only one week ago. The short term oscillators are all in oversold territory suggesting that a bounce is due at any time now. Perhaps, Wednesday will be a day that opens lower, scares bulls into dumping, and turning around for a positive close. But where the market goes on an intermediate term basis is anyone’s guess at this time.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This indicator has a current reading of 74 which is just coming out of overbought territory. This suggests that an intermediate term bottom has not had enough time to set up and any trades on the long side are for short-term speculation only.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Neutral” territory with a reading of 45. A reading below 25 is needed for a tradable low based on this sentiment indicator.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY OCTOBER 26, 2019

October 26th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR OCTOBER 26, 2019: The stock market has been rallying for 4 weeks now in a narrow channel suggesting a change of direction soon. With the internal indicators having reached “overbought” territory during this past week, I’d expect a move down the next few days with a setup for one last run to new highs before the late Fall volatility returns to finish the year.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market has already made an internal top with the market likely to dip for a few days before going to new highs during the second week on November. Be ready for a quick dip buy point this coming week for a ride up.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY AUGUST 31, 2019

September 1st, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR AUGUST 31, 2019: The stock market is currently in a tight trading range with its 4th trip up to the top of it on Friday. With the internal indicators in neutral territory across the board, I’d expect the trading range to continue without a breakout to either the top or bottom in the next few weeks. Don’t be surprised if the rally continues for a few more days on hopes for a trade deal with China only to find disappointment and threats again by next weekend…..and another drop to test the bottom of the range.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market is in the middle of its trading range in terms of the internal indicators. It appears that the market will continue upwards for a few more days before taking another trip to revisit its most recent bottom.

FEAR/GREED IS NOW REGISTERING “EXTREME FEAR”

August 6th, 2019 Comments off

The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” has a current reading of “22” which is the first step to getting a tradable bottom. But keep in mind that more often than not, the final bottom or ideal buy point occurs when this indicator is below a reading of “10.”

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JULY 22, 2019

July 21st, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JUNE 15, 2019: The stock market is still hovering close to its all-time highs, but has undergone some internal corrections of late. Both McClellan Oscillators are giving “oversold” readings with the Volatility Indicator within a day of reaching a similar “oversold” level. This usually means that the dip here is yet another buying opportunity over the short term.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market may easily be in a “buy the dip” situation. Another day of weakness, would make this an even better opportunity for those willing to play the shorter-term game. I wouldn’t be surprised if this choppiness were to continue until the end of the month, too.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JUNE 15, 2019

June 15th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JUNE 15, 2019: The stock market was overbought in all 5 internal indicator by midweek and are all trending down in the same pattern as of this weekend. This setup could lead to a buying opportunity by the end of the coming week if all 5 indicators continue on their current path. We haven’t seen this clean a pattern in awhile so be ready to take trading positions as early as this coming Friday.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market has a very clean top with almost identical charts in all 5 internal indicators. This is confirmation of a short-term trend change with a move across the channel to a corresponding “clean” bottom in all 5 internal indicators. That would be the desired outcome, but rarely do these things line up so cleanly. But if they do, we may have a nice trading bottom forming by the end of this week or the beginning to next week.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JUNE 2, 2019

June 5th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JUNE 2, 2019: The stock market is oversold in two out of the five internal indicators. Any weakness on Monday or Tuesday should be considered a short-term buying opportunity. Expect this bottom to be a tricky one to catch (like they all are) and be prepared to buy early rather than be left back at the station. (Note: This was supposed to have been posted on Sunday night but was delayed due to a personal emergency.) 

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market is oversold enough to begin looking to accumulated broad-based stock positions. The trickiest scenario would be for the market to open higher on Monday and force traders to buy into strength rather than weakness.