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WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR JANUARY 5, 2014

January 5th, 2014 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR January 6, 2014: The stock market may have reached its internal high on New Years Eve. A new closing high 5 to 10 trading days after that date could very easily be the final external high for this major rally. But with most professional traders sitting out last week, the stock market can still do almost anything in either direction this coming week. Expect at least one more new high in January to occur before any kind of significant decline begins.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

My advice for traders and investors is to remain of the sidelines and let the market set itself up for the next major move. The internal indicators have mostly moved back into neutral readings after the declines on Thursday and Friday. The current list of oversold Blue Chips stocks and Exchange-Trade Funds that are near the lower range of their Money Flow Indicator and should be monitored on further weakness include: Apple , IEF, and MSFT. With such a short list of buying candidates, it implies that the market needs to correct further before moving to the upside.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR DECEMBER 29, 2013

December 29th, 2013 Comments off

craps front coverMARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR December 29, 2013: The stock market rallied to 6 consecutive new highs before its slight drop on Friday. This certainly qualifies as confirmed strength but also a possible sign of an internal top. I would expect the strength to continue for a few more days with a good chance of a correction starting at the beginning of the New Year. This market is now overbought, over-loved, and overextended as the indicators below are signaling. This isn’t a time for buying, it’s a time for selling.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

My advice for traders and investors is to remain of the sidelines and let the market set itself up for the next major move. The current list of oversold Blue Chips stocks and Exchange-Trade Funds that are near the lower range of their Money Flow Indicator and could be bought on further weakness include: Ford, TLT & FXI. This short list is another indication that very few issues are in good buying ranges. I noticed that bellwether stock, Apple, may have made a final double top on “obvious good news” marking the end of its rally.

WALL STREET CRAPS MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR AUGUST 10, 2013

August 10th, 2013 Comments off

craps front coverMARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR August 10, 2013: The stock market made a new closing high 5 trading sessions ago. Since that time, it has been in a slow, choppy decline where there has been an absence of buyers rather than an abundance of sellers. The previous high was largely confirmed by other major indicators and suggests that another “retest” rally will be made in the coming week. But the NYSE Summation Index is making the case for a significant low coming up in a couple of weeks.

Key market indicators show the following:

For now, my advice for traders is to wait for the next oversold condition and then take positions for an upside move into the Fall. But if the market were to rally here into an unconfirmed new high, I’d be wary that the highs for the year have been achieved and to stand aside in a defensive position of cash. Thus far, playing the short side of the market has been difficult to trade and is better off avoided by most people.

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The indicators for Apple (AAPL) read as follows:

  • Current price: 454
  • Relative Strength Indicator = 61 heading down
  • Ultimate Indicator = 59 heading down
  • Money Flow Indicator = 50 heading down
  • 50-Day Moving Average = 435

The stock of Apple appears to have achieved its upside objective for this cycle in terms of price. I would wait to take new positions in the stock whenever any of the indicators (RSI, Ultimate, Money Flow) reach oversold readings. Of these, the Money Flow Indicator has been the most reliable one for swing trading. I’ve surmised that trying to chart this stock purely from a price standpoint has been an exercise in futility. The best trading results for the past year have been by simply relying on the Money Flow Indicator to identify low-risk buying areas to go long.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR AUGUST 6, 2013

August 5th, 2013 Comments off

craps front coverMARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR August 6, 2013: The stock market has continued its march upwards despite any rest for over a month. Expect this winning streak to continue until we see some obvious non-confirmations to the downside. For now, it looks like any near-term correction could create a quick oversold condition for another ride to new highs. The last phase of this advance should see strength in the DOW and QQQ Indexes while breadth weakens. This has not happened yet.

Key market indicators show the following:

For now, my advice for traders is to buy into any dip that corresponds to an oversold reading. This current rally has its doubters and will continue to “climb a wall of worry” until the bears capitulate. The most recent highs appear to have been strongly confirmed which gives the market more weeks to the upside.

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The indicators for Apple (AAPL) read as follows:

  • Current price: 469.45
  • Relative Strength Indicator = 74 overbought
  • Ultimate Indicator = 69 almost overbought
  • Money Flow Indicator = 65 neutral
  • 200-Day Moving Average = 465

The stock of Apple is finally broke decisively above its 50-Day Bear Market Moving Average. That means that this moving average no longer applies to the nature of the stock. A new “Bull Market Moving Average” will eventually form as the stock of Apple shifts to its new phase. But at this time, it cannot be determined what time frame the new moving average will get in sync with. But for now, a smart trader will be looking for a correction in the stock in order to ride this new phase upwards. That signal will probably come from an oversold condition in the Money Flow Indicator or Relative Strength Indicator.

WALL STREET CRAPS MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR JULY 17, 2013

July 16th, 2013 Comments off

craps front cover2MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR July 17, 2013: The stock market has been pushing upwards with an absence of fear. It is now at the top of its trading range in an environment of investor euphoria. While this may not signal the end of the bull move, it should mark the general end of this current cycle. I’m sure that the first correction down from here will be met by dip buyers. But it’s the nature of the next rally that will determine whether the market has the strength to push to new highs or retreat to the lower-to-middle part of the trading range. But don’t be surprised if you look back at this time period and wish that you had sold out.

Key market indicators show the following:

For now, my advice for traders is to buy into any dip that is triggered by obvious bad news for a quick ride to test the recent highs. Active broad-based exchange-traded funds to consider buying would include DIA, SPY, QQQ, SSO. The NYSE Summation Index shows that the market should be strong for several more weeks. But for most investors, this time period represents a period in which to lightened up on existing long positions.

Projected Final High: Tuesday July 23

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The indicators for Apple (AAPL) read as follows:

  • Current price: 430.20
  • Relative Strength Indicator = 56 neutral
  • Ultimate Indicator = 60 and heading higher
  • Money Flow Indicator = 61
  • 50-Day Bear Market Moving Average = 427

The stock of Apple is finally above its 50-Day Bear Market Moving Average. It is also right in the middle of its price pivot points. But given its Money Flow Indicator pattern of cyclical lows, I’d bet that new lows for the stock are some 3 months away. That also means that it probably has at least one more good month of advance in it. This stock may continue to move independently of the general market.

WALL STREET CRAPS MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR JULY 10, 2013

July 10th, 2013 Comments off

MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR July 10, 2013: The stock market continues to climb the proverbial “wall of worry” on the hope of reassuring news from the Fed. This current rally is in the position to challenge the market’s previous highs and may even surpass those May readings. But overall, this appears to be a time to wait for a pullback before it embarks on its challenge of the old highs.

Key market indicators show the following:

For now, my advice is to buy into any dip that is triggered by obvious bad news. Active broad-based exchange-traded funds to consider buying would include DIA, SPY, QQQ, SSO. The NYSE Summation Index shows that the market should be strong for several more weeks.

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The indicators for Apple (AAPL) read as follows:

  • Relative Strength Indicator = 50 neutral
  • Ultimate Indicator = 58 and heading higher
  • Money Flow Indicator = 29 with lots of room to move to the upside
  • 50-Day Bear Market Moving Average = 427

The stock of Apple is in a position to go in either direction but seems to have an upwards bias. I was hoping for a retest of the old lows but got surprised by a Wall Street analyst’s “strong buy” recommendation that moved the stock up sharply for several days. It has since retraced some of those gains, but may be ready to rally again shortly.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR JUNE 30, 2013

June 29th, 2013 Comments off

MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR July 10, 2013: The stock market reached a short-term bottom last Monday morning. Normally, one would expect a retest of that bottom in about 5 to 7 days. Therefore, we would expect some weakness on Monday and/or Tuesday as that retest. We had 3 days up from the bottom and can anticipate an equal 3 days down in this simple time symmetry. But the Summation Index clearly shows that we have already arrived at an intermediate term bottom and that smart traders/investors should get on-board for another bull run that will climb the proverbial “wall of worry.”

Key market indicators show the following:

For now, my advice is to buy into any weakness at the beginning of the week. Active broad-based exchange-traded funds to consider buying would include DIA, SPY, QQQ, SSO.

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The indicators for Apple (AAPL) read as follows:

  • Relative Strength Indicator = 26 (buy signal under 30)
  • Ultimate Indicator = 33 (buy signal under 30 which it was on Thursday’s close)
  • Money Flow Indicator = 6 (buy signal under 20)

This means that the stock of Apple is now in a buy zone and time to start accumulating. While it would appear that a test of the previous lows around 383 can be expected, we’ve learned to expect the unexpected when it comes to this stock. With a 3% dividend, an investor will get paid to wait on this unpredictable stock.

WALL STREET CRAPS MARKET OBSERVATION FOR JUNE 12,2013

June 13th, 2013 Comments off

MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR June 12, 2013: The stock market reached a short-term bottom last Thursday morning. That bottom is about to be tested one week later which coincides with tomorrow. With extreme readings in the NYSE Breadth Oscillator over the past week, it is entirely likely that tomorrow will present a buying opportunity before the next leg up to new highs.

Key market indicators show the following:

For now, my advice is to buy into weakness in oversold stocks or indexes with high positive correlations. Exchange-traded funds to buy would include DIA, SPY, QQQ, SSO. Oversold stocks to consider would include QCOM, BRCM, IYR.

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The indicators for Apple (AAPL) read as follows:

  • Relative Strength Indicator = 42
  • Ultimate Indicator = 38
  • Money Flow Indicator = 44

This means that the stock of Apple is mid-ranged and can go in either direction. There isn’t any pressure on the stock to go in one direction verses the other. I’d personally stay away from this issue until one or more of its indicators show that it is oversold again.

WALL STREET CRAPS MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR MAY 29, 2013

May 29th, 2013 Comments off

MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR May 29, 2013: The stock market reached new highs on Monday in a possible “key reversal day.” This could end up being the “internal high” for the market. With that in mind, a smart trader or investor can expect a new closing Dow high in the next one to three weeks. If that new Dow high comes without corresponding strength in other major indexes or if the market becomes overbought on its march up to a new high, then the odds are good that the final top is in. Then you could expect the long-awaited correction to begin at that time with a minimum of one month in duration & a possible 50% retracement of the previous advance.

Key market indicators show the following:

For now, my advice is to remain on the sidelines and let the market set itself up for its next big move. The short-term indicators are near “buy” readings so any further declines should be contained.

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The indicators for Apple (AAPL) read as follows:

  • Relative Strength Indicator = 54
  • Ultimate Indicator = 52
  • Money Flow Indicator = 46

This means that the stock of Apple is mid-ranged and can go in either direction. There isn’t any pressure on the stock to go in one direction verses the other. I’d personally stay away from this issue since it could just as easily go down 80 points as up.

WALL STREET CRAPS OBSERVATIONS FOR MAY 13, 2013

May 12th, 2013 Comments off

MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR May 13, 2013: The stock market reached new highs during this past week which were largely confirmed by other major indicators. But it wasn’t necessarily overwhelming strength across the board. This could be setting up the “head” of a potential “head and shoulders” top. That said, it implies that the topping process has much more time to chew up before getting anywhere near a full-blown declining phase. I’d look instead for the market to correct into another buying opportunity for a ride up into an overbought condition as it forms its right shoulder.

Key market indicators show the following:

For now, my advice is to remain on the sidelines and let the market set itself up for its next big move. It could be an oversold condition on the next decline which would set up a short but profitable ride up into its next overbought condition. If we get a few more closing highs that is not confirmed by strength, we could reach a point of exhaustion to the upside.

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As for Apple (AAPL), it’s the same advice as last week. The stock has finally broken above its Bear Market Optimized 50-Day Moving Average. After hitting its price pivot points in the 417-392 range, the stock of Apple rallied enough to end its Bear Market. But it doesn’t automatically mean that the stock will go into an instant bull market. Instead, the stock of Apple could remain in a neutral position while it “backs and fills” in order to form a stronger base for a more sustainable rally. I’d be looking to gradually accumulate the stock on a retracement into the 423-400 price range.