The stock market has made a dramatic recovery from its sharp decline last month. However, this could be the ideal setup for a classic Dow Theory Sell Signal. A new closing high the DJIA over 41,198.08 will not be confirmed by the NDX, DJTA, and the popular Magnificent 7, three prominent indicators. The ideal cover story is also present with the new Kennedy/Trump alliance and the Fed’s announcement of a cut in interest rates. This could all occur as early as Monday so watch the last hour of trading with the idea of taking pilot positions on the sell side if a rally comes without significant volume. Note: Be careful since Wednesday’s NVDA announcements may trigger another leg up as well.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
***********
NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 76. This suggests that there may be some more time left to this rally (1-2 weeks) since this indicator is still in a rising trend.
Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Neutral” territory with a reading of 53. This does not mean that it is an ideal time to short the market. In fact, this indicator is best used for finding bottoms, not tops. It did another good job of spotting this current rally.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: Categories: Stock Market Strategy, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, Stock Market Strategy, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, Tags: investing, Tags: investments, Tags: QQQ, trading, trading tips, wall street, WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JUNE 19
The stock market continues to correct for the last 15 trading sessions. This is a time match from the previous correction with the possibility that Friday marked the end of the decline. The Fear/Greed Index seems to agree that one more lower close on Monday might mark the bottom of this decline and the start of the Elliot Wave #5 to ATHs. However, the NYSE McClellan Summation Index is clustering in the overbought region and suggests the opposite – that a decline of a few weeks is due to reverse the upward trend in breadth numbers.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
***********
NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 81. This suggests that a decline is due to occur over the next few weeks to correct the upward trend in breadth statistics.
Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Fear” territory with a reading of 27. A close below 25 would take this widely-followed indicator into the “Extreme Fear” area that has marked the bottom of all corrections. Note: Major corrections end when this Index is below a reading of 5.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: QQQ, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, Stock Market Strategy, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, Tags: investing, Tags: investments, trading, trading tips, wall street
The stock market is broke through major resistance to new rally highs this past week. The Bulls were encouraged by positive remarks from the Fed despite some weaker-than-expected earning from several major tech companies. Thursday’s late action along with Friday’s retreat has reset the internal indicators to neutral positions. I will be looking for a short-term oversold condition to add some long positions for the short-term.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
***********
NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 92. This is both a sign of strength and one of being overbought. But does appear to indicate that this indicator is most likely at its peak and that the major part of the current rally is over.
Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Extreme Greed” territory with a reading of 76. This is the first time that it has been in this range for a long time. I can easily spend more time here, but an investor should be careful about joining the Bull crowd at this late time.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: Categories: Stock Market Strategy, investing tips, investments, QQQ, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, Stock Market Strategy, stock market timing, Tags: investing
The stock market appears to have topped out over the shorter-term on September 2nd. Since that time, the market has been trending downwards towards a possible bottom in mid-September. Recent bottoms have occurred on July 19th and August 19th which were 23 trading days apart. If that same pattern were to repeat itself, then the next bottom would be between September 19 and September 22. So be ready for a quick trade to the upside if the conditions for a bottom look worth risking.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
***********
Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Fear” territory with a reading of 34 after being in the “Neutral” and “Greed” zone for the past two weeks. The best buy signals on major corrections have occurred when the reading gets below 10. But a minimum reading of 25 would be required for a short-term bottom worth trading.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: investing tips, investments, QQQ, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, Stock Market Strategy, stock market timing, Tags: investing
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 4, 2019: The stock market has continued its strong, broad-based rally from the Christmas lows by going practically straight up. But now is the time for a correction of this rally (most likely starting after the State of the Union address Tuesday) and based on the momentum, I’d expect it to be more of a sideways, stalling decline than a steep drop which serves the purpose of chewing up time. But a good buying opportunity will likely arise from the next oversold reading.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
***********
THE BOTTOM LINE: The market may be setting itself up for a decline starting after Trump gives his State of the Union speech. This correction may not amount to a lot of points to the downside, but I’d be a buyer on the next oversold bottom. I think that the December lows were an important pivot point for this market and a continuation of the Bull Market.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: Categories: Stock Market Strategy, investing tips, investments, retirement, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, Tags: investing, trading advice, trading tips, wall street