WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 18, 2018
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 18, 2018: The stock market appears to be in the process of retesting its October bottom. For now, it’s filled the upside gaps on its most recent move down. That means that a rally could possibly start from this area right now. Or it could begin down again, reach oversold conditions, and successfully test the October bottom. That kind of process would probably take place on the week following Thanksgiving.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
- NYSE McClellan Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 34 (neutral)
- Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 41 (neutral)
- Volatility Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 45 (neutral)
- S&P 500 % Above 50-Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 47 (neutral)
- Nasdaq 100 % Above 50-Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 44 (neutral)
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 10 or “Extreme Fear.” It has been in this range for nearly a month and has shifted the sentiment to the negative. That means that a rally starting from this area could last several weeks or months. But the current short-term climate makes me think that catching the absolute bottom will be tricky as always. And a smart, well thought out betting strategy will be important in order to take positions without risk missing the opportunity. This requires that a trader pays close attention over the next two weeks.
POSSIBLE POST-THANKSGIVING BUYING OPPORTUNITY
WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 10, 2018
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 10, 2018: The stock market made a huge upside move in response to the election results on Wednesday. The question is whether that move signified a breakout to a new highs or a last grasp top for the latest bounce. Since this is anyone’s guess, the next entry point would likely be an oversold condition in the majority of breadth indicators. But a strong move down from here and a resumption of October’s down move would certainly change the character of the market again. This is a time for caution, as well as a time for opportunity for those willing to accept the risks and stomach the volatility.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
- NYSE McClellan Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 63 (neutral)
- Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 61 (neutral)
- Volatility Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 66 (neutral)
- S&P 500 % Above 50-Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 71 (Overbought)
- Nasdaq 100 % Above 50-Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 67 (neutral)
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 18 or “Extreme Fear.” While this is still in the “Extreme Fear” category, it is far off of the lows from the previous two weeks. This might suggest that the market is simply retracing its strong move up with a chance of forming another pivot bottom in about 5-10 trading days. So be alert and ready to act on a brief buying opportunity ahead.
WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 3, 2018
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 3, 2018: The stock market had a key reversal on Monday that carried over all the way until Friday morning. In the process, it has recovered much of its losses over the month. Right now, several of the breadth indicators have short-term overbought readings suggesting that a retest of the previous lows could be in the making. If we are to assume that the bull market is only in a correction mode, then it would make sense to take positions on weakness as it nears last Monday’s previous lows. If that retest comes on light volume, then a reversal to the upside is even more likely.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
- NYSE McClellan Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator Reading – 74 (Overbought)
- Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator Reading – 81 (Overbought)
- Volatility Indicator – Ultimate Indicator Reading – 68 (neutral)
- S&P 500 % Above 50-Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator Reading – 64 (neutral)
- Nasdaq 100 % Above 50-Day Moving Average – 73 (Overbought)
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 7 or “Extreme Fear.” This reading suggests that there is plenty of room for the market to rally. This time of year can be particularly tricky, but present several trading opportunities. But not everyone is suited for playing this much volatility and I happen to fall into that category. But a light volume retest of the previous lows would present a lower-risk entry point for the next ride up. But you never know about this market. It may just continue to go straight up from here.