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WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 9, 2018

December 9th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 9, 2018: The stock market has shown tremendous volatility this past week. Since Black Friday after Thanksgiving, the market has gone up 6 days followed by sharp declines for the last 3 days. One might expect that the market may find a short-term bottom either Tuesday or Wednesday based on time symmetry. And based on the internal indicators listed below, a bottom will also require 2 to 4 more days of decline before reaching oversold readings.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 11 or “Extreme Fear.” The sentiment is certainly negative as this indicator has remained in the negative territory for a couple of months now. The trading environment is very tricky and will punish anyone who is on the wrong side of the market. If you have the temperament to trade, you’ll find lots of opportunities for some fast money. But for most people, this is a market to avoid until it calms down and shows more signs of capitulation. The “blood” is not quite “on the street” but it’s getting there. Be careful out there!

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 1, 2018

December 1st, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 1, 2018: The stock market has gone straight up since its bottom on Black Friday. That day was marked by a new closing low that was not confirmed by the majority of breadth and momentum indicators. This is a classic “Granville Buy Signal” named for the infamous stock market analyst of the period from 1977 to 1983. From this point forward, after the strongest one week rally in stock market history, one could expect that the market to continue going higher in a zig-zag pattern until the end of the year. If you missed this last opportunity, you’ll have to buy on any short-term oversold conditions.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 22 or “Extreme Fear.” It should be in the “neutral” zone shortly with the continued rally in the stock market. Use any short-term oversold readings as a place to add to long positions through the end of the year. It looks like a “Santa Claus Rally” is in the cards for this year.

POSSIBLE INTERMEDIATE-TERM BOTTOM NEXT WEEK

November 23rd, 2018 Comments off

Categories: Stock Market Timing Tags:

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 18, 2018

November 18th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 18, 2018: The stock market appears to be in the process of retesting its October bottom. For now, it’s filled the upside gaps on its most recent move down. That means that a rally could possibly start from this area right now. Or it could begin down again, reach oversold conditions, and successfully test the October bottom. That kind of process would probably take place on the week following Thanksgiving.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 10 or “Extreme Fear.” It has been in this range for nearly a month and has shifted the sentiment to the negative. That means that a rally starting from this area could last several weeks or months. But the current short-term climate makes me think that catching the absolute bottom will be tricky as always. And a smart, well thought out betting strategy will be important in order to take positions without risk missing the opportunity. This requires that a trader pays close attention over the next two weeks.

POSSIBLE POST-THANKSGIVING BUYING OPPORTUNITY

November 14th, 2018 Comments off

Categories: Uncategorized Tags:

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 10, 2018

November 10th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 10, 2018: The stock market made a huge upside move in response to the election results on Wednesday. The question is whether that move signified a breakout to a new highs or a last grasp top for the latest bounce. Since this is anyone’s guess, the next entry point would likely be an oversold condition in the majority of breadth indicators. But a strong move down from here and a resumption of October’s down move would certainly change the character of the market again. This is a time for caution, as well as a time for opportunity for those willing to accept the risks and stomach the volatility.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 18 or “Extreme Fear.” While this is still in the “Extreme Fear” category, it is far off of the lows from the previous two weeks. This might suggest that the market is simply retracing its strong move up with a chance of forming another pivot bottom in about 5-10 trading days. So be alert and ready to act on a brief buying opportunity ahead.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 3, 2018

November 3rd, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 3, 2018: The stock market had a key reversal on Monday that carried over all the way until Friday morning. In the process, it has recovered much of its losses over the month. Right now, several of the breadth indicators have short-term overbought readings suggesting that a retest of the previous lows could be in the making. If we are to assume that the bull market is only in a correction mode, then it would make sense to take positions on weakness as it nears last Monday’s previous lows. If that retest comes on light volume, then a reversal to the upside is even more likely.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 7 or “Extreme Fear.” This reading suggests that there is plenty of room for the market to rally. This time of year can be particularly tricky, but present several trading opportunities. But not everyone is suited for playing this much volatility and I happen to fall into that category. But a light volume retest of the previous lows would present a lower-risk entry point for the next ride up. But you never know about this market. It may just continue to go straight up from here.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY OCTOBER 28, 2018

October 28th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR OCTOBER 28, 2018: The stock market dropped hard last week taking out support levels in all indices. With several breadth indicators in oversold territory, one would expect another bounce to occur soon. But in terms to sustaining a strong upside rally, I expect more downside with lower lows. If we should get oversold readings in the McClellan Oscillators, I’d want to play a relief rally of several hundred points. That could come sometime next week with a test of the early 2018 lows around 2530 in the S&P 500.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 7 or “Extreme Fear.” It has been in this territory for a few weeks now and is an indicator of a major correction if not the start of a Bear Market. But in “Wall Street Craps” terms, the tables are cold and lots of money can be lost betting heavier on a cold table. So aside from a quick light trade with tight stops, you should keep most of your money on the sidelines.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY OCTOBER 21, 2018

October 21st, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR OCTOBER 21, 2018: The stock market has either completed its bounce or is in the process of retesting the previous lows. I have a hunch that whichever direction the market goes on Monday, the rest of the week will do the opposite. So if we get a rally on Monday, I’d be selling into that strength, but conversely I’d be buying on a retest of the lows. Of course this is a gamble, but something that I see as an opportunity for gain.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 14 or “Extreme Fear.” It has been in the this area for over a week and usually doesn’t stay here for more than two weeks. So the market is either going to rally here or is in the middle point of a decline into a lower-risk buying zone before the election.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – OCTOBER 14, 2018

October 13th, 2018 Comments off

The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” has a current reading of 11 after reaching an even more extreme reading of 5 on Friday. This suggests that the market is within the buying opportunity area.

This indicator has gone down enough but only may need to spend more time in this area before rallying upwards in the coming weeks.

With the internal indicators in “oversold” readings, this suggests that a tradable bottom could occur in this time period – which is within the next two weeks. However, there is always the possibility of one more crash down of obvious “bad news” in order to shake out the weak hands.