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WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FEBRUARY 10, 2019

February 10th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 10, 2019: The stock market showed some downside action with a turnaround near the close of Friday. Two of the internal oscillators are in “oversold” territory and may suggest that the downside pressure should subside near-term. But the other internal indicators (new choices to reflect other perspectives of the market) suggest that this is all short-term action that needs more time to set up properly for a stronger move in either direction.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The market may have hit a very short-term bottom on Friday but any major moves will require more time to set up properly. This may be a good time to step aside and let time create a better opportunity to trade.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FEBRUARY 4, 2019

February 5th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 4, 2019: The stock market has continued its strong, broad-based rally from the Christmas lows by going practically straight up. But now is the time for a correction of this rally (most likely starting after the State of the Union address Tuesday) and based on the momentum, I’d expect it to be more of a sideways, stalling decline than a steep drop which serves the purpose of chewing up time. But a good buying opportunity will likely arise from the next oversold reading.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The market may be setting itself up for a decline starting after Trump gives his State of the Union speech. This correction may not amount to a lot of points to the downside, but I’d be a buyer on the next oversold bottom. I think that the December lows were an important pivot point for this market and a continuation of the Bull Market.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JANUARY 27, 2019

January 27th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JANUARY 27, 2019: The stock market experienced a choppy week ending up about where it started. In the process, it has worked out some of its overbought condition. The internal indicators are largely neutral which suggests that the market can go in either direction with the same probability – either up towards heavy resistance or down for a 50% retracement.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: It’s anyone’s guess whether the market corrects from here or rallies and then corrects. Perhaps there will be a tradable low in mid-February to take new positions on the long side. But momentum still appears strong to the upside and it’s a tough bet trying to play the downside. The December low’s extreme technical readings may have put in a solid bottom for many months.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JANUARY 12, 2019

January 12th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JANUARY 12, 2019: The stock market continued its strong bounce from the December 26th lows. All internal indicators show “overbought” readings which suggests both strength and possible exhaustion. There doesn’t appear to be any catalyst for a decline, but it’s probably too late to ride this current trend up without a small correction to neutralize these “overbought” conditions.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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TIME SYMMETRY: The market declined from December 3rd to December 26 which was a period of 23 calendar days or 16 trading days. Projecting out from the December 26th low, the upcoming time symmetry top should occur either on Thursday January 17 or Friday January 18.

THE BOTTOM LINE: The time to buy was in late December and it was a very tricky bottom indeed. It was a reminder of how difficult it is to go long after a 1000 point up day, but that would have been the preferred tactic at the time.

If I had to guess, I would anticipate a decline starting late this coming week to a closing Dow low below the January 3rd (Apple) low of 22,686.22. Then a new rally could take the market back up to the 200-day moving average around Dow 24000 or S&P 500 2700. For now, keep your powder dry for a possible entry to the long side in another few weeks.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JANUARY 6, 2019

January 6th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JANUARY 6, 2019: The stock market has made several radical intraday moves in the last month that has been unnerving to many traders and investors like myself. At the present time, the internal indicators have moved into “overbought” territory and can remain there for another one to two days before trending lower. This means that a short-term top can be anticipated after a few more days of advance.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 16 or “Extreme Fear.”  But this is a far stronger reading than the “2” reading of December 24th, just before the December 26th bottom. This suggests that the market can still move in either direction but has much more room to the upside. Based on the indicators and cycles, I’d anticipate a few more days to the upside before there is an attempt to retest the December 26 or January 3rd bottoms.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 25, 2018

December 25th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 25, 2018: The stock market gave us one chance to get out on Wednesday morning before the Fed’s announcement. But after the Chairman Powell’s briefing, the market tanked hard on the remainder of Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Monday of Christmas Eve Day. Needless to say, there was no “Santa Claus Rally” and investors are in total shock mode right now. As the internal indicators show, this is a gradual “crash” up to now and when it finally stops is anyone’s guess.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 2 or “Extreme Fear.” This confirms the action of the internal indicators above and suggests that we are near an internal low for the market. We may get a short and sharp rally soon, but in all likelihood we should see another visit to the established lows. It may take a classic “crash” in order for the market to finally hit bottom and reverse its downward trend. And with the most recent figures, that is going to take an intraday drop exceeding 1000 Dow points which is going to be scary. If I had to guess, I’d say that a rally should start on Friday December 28th after tax-selling season finally ends.

THE LOWEST READING SINCE THIS INDICATOR’S INCEPTION!

December 22nd, 2018 Comments off

The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” has a current reading of “2” which is the lowest number since this indicator’s inception. This suggests that market sentiment is at levels last seen in the 2008-2009 bear market. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that the market is ready to go up just now. But what this does do is potentially indicate the location of the “internal bottom” of the market. The “external bottom” or lowest Dow Jones Industrial Average closing price will likely follow 2-5 weeks later. On this second “external bottom” there will be many non-confirmations to show it’s a final bottom. This type of set-up won’t happen until January.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 16, 2018

December 15th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 16, 2018: The stock market continued its downward move by closing at its lows for this correction. With the majority of internal indicators showing readings in the 30s, a short-term bottom can be expected on Monday or Tuesday. That should set up the market for its anticipated “Santa Claus Rally.”

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 8 or “Extreme Fear.” This single digit reading after two months of “Extreme Fear” readings overall is sufficient to indicate that the general market is unloved and the sentiment has been severe enough it both duration and direction. This sets up the market for a year-end rally starting sometime between Tuesday and Thursday of this week.

Note: Thursday would match the recent 18-day cycle of lows from October 29 to November 23 in terms of number of trading days. Tuesday would mark the matching number of calendar days. Thus, a cyclical low can be anticipated between Tuesday and Thursday of this week. But remember that it will be tricky catching the exact bottom for it may mean trying to catch a “falling knife.”

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 9, 2018

December 9th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 9, 2018: The stock market has shown tremendous volatility this past week. Since Black Friday after Thanksgiving, the market has gone up 6 days followed by sharp declines for the last 3 days. One might expect that the market may find a short-term bottom either Tuesday or Wednesday based on time symmetry. And based on the internal indicators listed below, a bottom will also require 2 to 4 more days of decline before reaching oversold readings.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 11 or “Extreme Fear.” The sentiment is certainly negative as this indicator has remained in the negative territory for a couple of months now. The trading environment is very tricky and will punish anyone who is on the wrong side of the market. If you have the temperament to trade, you’ll find lots of opportunities for some fast money. But for most people, this is a market to avoid until it calms down and shows more signs of capitulation. The “blood” is not quite “on the street” but it’s getting there. Be careful out there!

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 1, 2018

December 1st, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 1, 2018: The stock market has gone straight up since its bottom on Black Friday. That day was marked by a new closing low that was not confirmed by the majority of breadth and momentum indicators. This is a classic “Granville Buy Signal” named for the infamous stock market analyst of the period from 1977 to 1983. From this point forward, after the strongest one week rally in stock market history, one could expect that the market to continue going higher in a zig-zag pattern until the end of the year. If you missed this last opportunity, you’ll have to buy on any short-term oversold conditions.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 22 or “Extreme Fear.” It should be in the “neutral” zone shortly with the continued rally in the stock market. Use any short-term oversold readings as a place to add to long positions through the end of the year. It looks like a “Santa Claus Rally” is in the cards for this year.