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WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY OCTOBER 21, 2017

October 21st, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR OCTOBER 21, 2017: The stock market continues to march upwards fueled by good news on the tax reform front. This rally has continued while many internal indicators have been reaching “oversold” levels. This would not appear to make any sense at all. Because of these confusing signals in the general market, it might be better to be on the sidelines until oversold indicators match up with market bottoms, not market tops.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Extreme Greed” after a short stay in the “Greed” territory. This is a simple indicator that guides an investor into the foundational discipline of buying low and selling high. Based on this indicator, this is not a “buy low” scenario, but instead a “sell high” environment. But more importantly, this is a unique time of a market with few, if any, remaining bears and almost total agreement on the bullish side. It’s just a matter of how long it can remain that way and what will be the trigger that finally creates a significant decline. But the truth is that no one really knows!

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY SEPTEMBER 23, 2017

September 23rd, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 23, 2017: The stock market is at the top of its price range with a few of the internal indicators in overbought territory. But other indicators show neutral readings which still allows the market to go in either direction with equal likelihood. This is one of those times where it’s probably most prudent to lighten up on over-extended positions and wait to add when the next oversold condition presents itself.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Greed” after being in the “Extreme Greed” range for a few days last week. Many times this means that this indicator will traverse itself from an “Extreme Greed” reading back down to an “Extreme Fear” reading. But most of all, this index is saying that this is not a good time to be buying. The next week should be interesting as the general market may be setting up for an October Crash. Stay alert!

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY SEPTEMBER 10, 2017

September 10th, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 10, 2017: The stock market is in a sort of “no-man’s land” right now. Last week, it was in an “overbought” area and now it may be tracing out a pattern across its price range towards an “oversold” condition. With all of the internal indicators showing “neutral” readings, there is plenty of room for the market to go in either direction. But we are in the time of year when tops and bottoms can form, it would be prudent to play it safely right now and wait for a better opportunity to take shape in the coming weeks.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Fear” after being in the “neutral” range for a few days. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this index go back into the “Extreme Fear” range before finally hitting the bottom of this sideways correction. There isn’t any immediate action that needs to take place right now. This is a time to build cash reserves in anticipation of a better buying opportunity in the coming weeks.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY SEPTEMBER 4, 2017

September 3rd, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 4, 2017: The stock market finds itself at the top of its trading range once again after being in the “Extreme Fear” area of the Fear/Greed Index for several days. With all five internal indicators reading “overbought,” it is time to take some profits and refrain from buying just now. This rally probably has a few more days before it corrects. But it’s anyone’s guess whether this next dip is going to be sideways, shallow, brief or extended. This is a very tricky time of year and with all that’s going on in terms of political and tax-reform news the volatility in the market can be expected to increase significantly. Thus, you don’t want to take too many chances of being on the wrong side of the market.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Neutral” after being in the “Extreme Fear” range for many days. Usually this marks an intermediate term bottom, but the correction has been so shallow that it’s difficult to call it anymore than a “dip.” With the market short-term overbought, it would be prudent to avoid new purchases right now. But with the market near resistance price levels, I’d be looking for obvious non-confirmations as a sign of a trend-reversal. But more than anything, this is a time to be cautious and manage your chips wisely.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY AUGUST 13, 2017

August 13th, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR AUGUST 13, 2017: The stock market has now reached short-term oversold levels according to many internal indicators. This sets up the market for a “bounce” to higher levels. If the general market advances quickly at the beginning of the week, we may get left behind as the market would have bottomed on last Thursday. But if it should decline early in the coming week, we may be presented with a short-term buying opportunity for a quick ride up to challenge the old market highs.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Fear” which serves as a buying alert. My market discipline is that a buying opportunity is only acted upon once the Fear/Greed Index reaches “Extreme Fear” levels. That could occur early next week if the market should continue to decline. But since prices have not decline very much from the market highs, any buying will be in stocks or ETFs with only short-term (not intermediate-term) oversold readings.

This opportunity will not be the case of buying low and selling high, but more like buying high and selling higher. This is not the time for bottom-fishing, but instead is a time to buy only those issues with a high correlation to the general market. Or simply restrict your buying in S&P 500 and/or Nasdaq 100 equivalents.

Note: None of the broad-based ETFs in the major indices are currently oversold. This could mean that a better low may be coming later when these ETFs do become oversold.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JULY 29, 2017

July 30th, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JULY 29, 2017: The stock market has corrected internally while not giving much in price as evidenced by the near oversold readings in the 5 indicators listed below. This suggests that another rally could be coming soon after another drop next week. But with the large decline in the Dow Jones Transportation Average last week, I’d be careful about taking larger permanent positions. The next set-up to the upside will likely be a sharp quick rally at best.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Greed” after being in the “Extreme Greed” range for 3 days last week. This suggests that there is enough euphoria among market participants to warrant extreme caution. But with the internal indicators that I follow approaching “oversold” readings, I’d be looking for any decline in the next few days to be only temporary. This could be just another “dip” worth buying in this seemingly endless Bull Market.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JUNE 18, 2017

June 18th, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JUNE 18, 2017: The stock market is in a neutral position with an equal probability of going either up or down. Expect the market to set itself up for its next big move by creating a false small move in one direction or the other – followed by a stronger move in the opposite direction. If I had to guess, the market will probably decline throughout the week – setting up a larger rally to follow. All we need is the market to show some “oversold” readings in order to act.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “neutral” suggesting a balance between bullish and bearish sentiment. If we should get “oversold” readings in a few of the internal indicators or an “Extreme Fear” reading in the Fear/Greed Index, we could be setting up a chance to “buy the dip” for another ride up to higher highs.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY APRIL 23, 2017

April 23rd, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR APRIL 23, 2017: The stock market remains in a neutral position with the ability to go in either direction. The last two weeks has presented the market with an opportunity to become “oversold” but rallied modestly instead to prevent investors and traders from getting to a low-risk entry point. Expect the market to set itself up for the next trading opportunity in the coming weeks, but right now it’s best to take a wait and see approach to this tricky news-driven market.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Fear” after being in the “Extreme Fear” range for only one trading day. I would expect a much deeper reading in the “Extreme Fear” range in order to safely say that the stock market is “oversold” or “under-loved” in terms of sentiment. The current geopolitical climate should serve to push sentiment strongly in one direction or the other. And most likely, it will create the desire emotion of “extreme fear” which allows presents disciplined traders with a low-risk buying opportunity. So right now it’s best to let the market set itself up for the next trading opportunity.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY APRIL 8, 2017

April 9th, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR APRIL 8, 2017: The stock market remains in neutral territory despite the unstable news background. But the news will help create the cover story for the next top or bottom as it will polarize public sentiment. Right now it appears that the breadth oscillators are heading down towards an oversold bottom in the near term (3 to 5 days). If the readings become low enough, a rally worth trading to the upside may be in store for us. But until those low reading occur, it’s probably wisest to keep your powder dry for better odds in playing this tricky market.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Fear” after being in the “Neutral” area for a week. The set-up in the breadth oscillators suggests that a short-term bottom is nearby. If the Fear/Greed Sentiment Index can register an “Extreme Fear” reading in the meantime, we may have a sharp rally to ride into May. But until that sets up properly, it’s best to do nothing except get your ducks in a row.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – MARCH 26, 2017

March 26th, 2017 Comments off

The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” reading has moved into the “Fear” range this past week. When it reaches the “Extreme Fear” area, it will become one of the pre-conditions for an intermediate-term stock market bottom.

So any further weakness in the general market will probably put this index in the “Extreme Fear” range which means that it’s a time to start getting your feet wet with a diversified long position. My favorite plays would be the SPY and QQQ Exchange-Trade Funds.

But since the last market top was not very far from the current position, I’d look at this next bottom as being only a starting point to challenge the old highs.