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WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MAY 27, 2024

May 26th, 2024 Comments off
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The stock market appears to have reached a short-term “external top” with the reversal on Thursday after the Nvidia earnings report. In order to receive a “sell signal,” I would anticipate a new closing high or two with non-confirmations across the board. That is setting up for within the next 5-10 trading days. However, if the market continues to climb with strengthen, then Wednesday’s external top analysis would be invalidated.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 64. This indicator has topped out and is trending down at the moment. This often times indicates that the market is heading down or staying flat.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Neutral” territory with a reading of 53. New long positions should be considered if this indicator can get below a reading of 25. That will take a little bit of time to create.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY APRIL 7, 2024

April 6th, 2024 Comments off
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The stock market haD been on a relentless advance since its bottom in October of last year. However, these past two weeks have shown signs of a possible topping pattern and a time to move to the sidelines or lighten up on long positions. From a Dow Theory perspective, the Dow Transportation Index may provide a non-confirmation of a new Dow Industrial Average high. And if other major indexes and technical indicator also fail to confirm a new closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, then we will have a classic “Sell Everything” Joe Granville Sell Signal worth respecting. This all makes for an interesting time.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 47. But the daily readings just closed below its 15 Day Moving Average two days ago. This suggests that a bigger decline may be in the cards over the shorter term and not a time at all to buy or hold.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Greed” territory with a reading of 61. It is too early to buy based on this indicator which has been very accurate in picking bottoms to the exact day. Maybe a lot of people are watching and acting on this index.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 31, 2023

December 31st, 2023 Comments off
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The stock market has been on a relentless advance that has destroyed the Bears and is pushing to new all-time highs. This euphoria could continue longer than most expect, but lead to a sharp correction in the next week or two. It’s probably too late to buy and too early to sell. I’d expect a new closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average that is unconfirmed by the majority of other indicators and indexes to be the time for the market to turn down. Expect the first 10 days of January to be very tricky to trade in either direction.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 97. It has been in a strong uptrend since it bottomed in late October. The first clue of a decline is now showing up with a “cluster” of postings near its peak. Time wise, the market has gone up long enough without a correction by historical standards.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Extreme Greed” territory with a reading of 76. This indicator suggests that it is not the time to go long and time to lighten up on long positions.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY SEPTEMBER 10, 2023

September 9th, 2023 Comments off
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The stock market has been correcting for the last week with many of the short-term indicator within striking distance of oversold readings. Investors and traders should be very careful in this time period as deep oversold readings often occur during the September-October time period. This week should be interesting with Apple’s earnings, new iPhone and China news affecting this bellwether stock.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 26. It has been in the oversold range for some time now and just recently started to decline once again.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Neutral” territory with a reading of 51. The next solid upside trading opportunity doesn’t appear unless this trusty indicator hits a reading of 25 or less (Extreme Fear).

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY AUGUST 12, 2023

August 13th, 2023 Comments off
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The stock market has been correcting for the past few weeks since the end of July/early August. The technology sector has taken a harder hit than the rest of the market. The internal indicators show that the market can go in either direction, but the NYSE McClellan Summation Index suggests that the decline has more time to go. But price-wise, the SPX 55-Day Moving Average is getting close and provides support to the market for bounce. But it is unusual for a market to reach an intermediate hit and an intermediate bottom in the same month.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 45. This indicator has been trending lower for 10 trading days now. It is approaching an oversold reading which says that a tradable bottom is approaching. This is one of the most reliable intermediate-term trading indicators and gives you plenty of time to prepare.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Greed” territory with a reading of 67. The next solid upside trading opportunity doesn’t appear unless this trusty indicator hits a reading of 25 or less (Extreme Fear).

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MAY 14, 2023

May 14th, 2023 Comments off
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The stock market has been trading in a very tight trading range for many weeks now. While many technology stocks have performed well, others like bank. transportation and Russell 500 stocks have performed poorly. With such a split market, the breadth readings will give distorted readings. Based on my experience, a sharp but quick drop should create a good buying opportunity for nimble traders. But otherwise, long-term investors might want to wait in high-yielding money market funds for a better, more oversold bottom.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 31. This indicator has been trending lower for over 10 trading days now. It is approaching an oversold reading which says that a tradable bottom is approaching. This is one of the most reliable intermediate-term trading indicators and gives you plenty of time to prepare.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Greed” territory with a reading of 58. The next upside trading opportunity doesn’t appear unless this trusty indicator hits a reading of 25 or less.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY APRIL 26, 2023

April 27th, 2023 Comments off
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The stock market has broken to the downside after hovering for several weeks in a tight trading zone. The short-term indicators are very oversold so a bounce can be expected in the next day or two to release that upside pressure. But after this bounce, you can expect the market to return to the downside since the intermediate-term NYSE McClellan Summation Index has made its turn to the downside with very negative historical indications.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 58 but is now clearly turning down after rallying for about a month. Timewise, this downturn can be expected to start accelerating in about 5-7 days. Use this anticipated bounce to unload on your long positions with the intent of buying back after this indicator bottoms several weeks from now.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Neutral” territory with a reading of 52. This indicator has a long way to go before it registers a buy signal below a reading of 25 or “Extreme Fear.”

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY APRIL 9, 2023

April 9th, 2023 Comments off
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The stock market is hovering just below its recent short-term high. With nearly all of the oscillators having been overbought at the beginning of this past week, there is a good chance of a retest of the recent highs. But this retest is likely to fail and start a sharp decline to challenge the October lows. This is not a good time to be taking long positions, but possibly one to take light short positions.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 50. It has been coming out of a good low position from two weeks ago and is likely to continue its upwards move to an overbought positions in 2-3 weeks. This is one of the more bullish indicators.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Greed” territory with a reading of 57. This is a neutral position with plenty of room to go up or down.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FEBRUARY 5, 2023

February 5th, 2023 Comments off
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The stock market is broke through major resistance to new rally highs this past week. The Bulls were encouraged by positive remarks from the Fed despite some weaker-than-expected earning from several major tech companies. Thursday’s late action along with Friday’s retreat has reset the internal indicators to neutral positions. I will be looking for a short-term oversold condition to add some long positions for the short-term.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 92. This is both a sign of strength and one of being overbought. But does appear to indicate that this indicator is most likely at its peak and that the major part of the current rally is over.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Extreme Greed” territory with a reading of 76. This is the first time that it has been in this range for a long time. I can easily spend more time here, but an investor should be careful about joining the Bull crowd at this late time.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JANUARY 16, 2023

January 16th, 2023 Comments off
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The stock market is currently short-term overbought and is likely to have a correction of some sort in the next week to 10 days. Once this overbought condition is relieved, the market can be expected to retest its current high and possibly breakthrough to higher ground. The most telling characteristic of the most recent bottom is that the final decline was lead by “the Generals” Apple and Tesla. As such, a good trader must be ready for the surprises that may come to the upside instead of the downside for the intermediate term.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 77. This indicator is just now starting to cluster. So there is no indication that a significant decline is going to happen right now. It’s most recent bottom surprised me by not getting to the “oversold” area, but instead turned up at the beginning of the year.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Greed” territory with a reading of 63 and trending up. Timing-wise, this doesn’t meet the criteria for buying right now. However, bullish runs can go on for extended periods of time without much of any time spent heading towards the oversold condition.