Archive

Posts Tagged ‘stock trading’

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 20, 2021

November 19th, 2021 Comments off
craps front cover

The stock market has been correcting and chewing up time since its recent move to all-time highs. In the meantime, three of the short-term oscillators have flashed “oversold” readings suggesting that a short-term bottom is here now. This may be setting the market up for one last rally into December before any major correction occurs. You could start taking positions on any weakness during the next few days or sell any remaining positions into strength as the market continues to climb the proverbial “wall of worry.”

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This indicator has been clustering in the overbought range, but is now breaking down and headed across its Ultimate Indicator oscillator’s range towards the “oversold” area. According to the history of this indicator, it will need some clustering at a lower level before a sustainable rally can happen. What I’d expect instead would be a short, sharp rally to new all-time highs in December, but not one of duration.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Greed” territory after having been in the “Extreme Greed” area for some time.. One has to be very careful about taking long positions at this time even though the short-term oscillators are “oversold.” Bottoms usually don’t occur unless this indicator has a reading of 25 or less (Extreme Fear).

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY OCTOBER 24, 2021

October 23rd, 2021 Comments off
craps front cover

The stock market has been doing a great job of “climbing the wall of worry.” On Thursday of this past week, many short-term indicators topped out and the evaluation is whether it did so from: 1) exhaustion & a move down across the trading range or 2) just a pause before resuming its relentless climb. Unfortunately, no one really knows despite what they may claim with almost total certainty. I would look for either a decline and then a failed retest or a high volume reversal before making any bets to the downside. Sometimes it’s just better to watch from the sidelines and preserve your capital (chips).

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Greed” territory with a reading of 67 after being in the “Extreme Greed” zone for a day or so. This indicator gave a one-day buy signal in early October, but it is not a reliable timing tool for catching tops. Therefore, it’s not worth reading too much into its reading this coming week.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY AUGUST 21, 2021

August 21st, 2021 Comments off
craps front cover

The stock market traded lower for most of the week that coincided with the turmoil in Afghanistan. With the rally on Friday, the Dow Jone Industrial Average is about 500 points below its August 16th high. I would expect a rally to new highs to be unconfirmed by the majority of other indicators. That would set up a Dow Theory Sell Signal as well as a Granville Sell Signal worth shorting or selling existing long positions. Such a scenario could take place in the next 3-7 trading sessions so be on your toes for this developing opportunity.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Extreme Fear” territory with a reading of 25 after being in the “Extreme Fear” zone with a reading of 22 on Thursday. The best buy signals on major corrections have occurred when the reading gets below 10, however.

Monday August 23rd Note: The Granville Sell Signal usually occurs when the new unconfirmed high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average coincides with an obvious public good news cover story. Could the Pfizer COVID vaccine FDA approval be that cover story?

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JULY 24, 2021

July 24th, 2021 Comments off
craps front cover

The stock market spiked down on Monday and then rallied strongly the remaining 4 days of the week. I was looking for a trade set-up on Tuesday morning, the market did not present an opportunity to “fade” the trade . This has happened often in the past and it is often wisest to buy during the last half hour of trading instead of letting the futures market change course and ruin your trading plans. I missed a good trading opportunity by trying to be too perfect in a tricky market. In this case, it’s more important to determine a gradual betting strategy than trying to time a “hot and cold” market too closely.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Fear” territory with a reading of 32 after being in the “Extreme Fear” zone with a reading of 17 on Monday. So this indicator did flash a clear buy signal of Monday which I saw but didn’t act on.

Note: Friday July 23rd’s, new closing high in the Dow Jone Industrial Average was not confirmed by the Dow Jones Transportation Average. This sets up a classic Dow Theory Sell Signal. Mark this date as a possible intermediate term top.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MAY 26, 2021

May 27th, 2021 Comments off
craps front cover

The stock market is hovering near its all-time highs with no apparent reason to decline at this point in time. In fact, the market sentiment as measured by the “Fear/Greed Index” suggests that a short-term buy signal is close at hand. With the Memorial Day holiday quickly upon us, it doesn’t look like a trading opportunity of any kind is not likely until June. This is a time to let the market set itself up for its next big move. In the meantime, the odds still favor a market that continues to drift upwards.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This indicator is clustering in the oversold range. This is an indication that a breakout is eminent. But in which direction is not clear right now.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Fear” territory which is close to the “Extreme Fear” zone that often signals a buy. If the market were to have a short term decline, a buy signal from this indicator could be triggered.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MAY 2, 2021

May 1st, 2021 Comments off
craps front cover

The stock market bottomed in early March and has not retested that level since. Right now, all of the internal indicators are mid-range with no pressure to go in either direction. With recent new all-time highs, a correction can be expected especially with earning season having already passed. If a correction starts now, it could be finished by the end of the week or the beginning of next week at the earliest. Then one could expect another run to higher highs in all the major indices.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This indicator ticked lower on Friday and could suggest the beginning of a downtrend. Overall, this indicator has held up well for the market.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Greed” territory which suggests that a bottom won’t materialize until it at least touches the “Extreme Fear” reading. That would take 5 to 7 trading days at the very least.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MARCH 31, 2021

April 1st, 2021 Comments off
craps front cover

The stock market bottomed in early March and has not retested that level since. Right now, all of the internal indicators are mid-range with no pressure to go in either direction. There is strength in the advance/decline line and the Dow Jones Transportation Average, while there is apparent weakness in the McClellan Summation Index. All of this suggests that a churning market with a slight bias to the upside can be reasonably expected with no sharp sustained actions in either direction.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator has been in a downtrend for several days now but without a break in the price action. Right now, the indicator is clustering with a possible move back to the upside soon. In addition, the Fear/Greed Index is in the “Neutral” territory suggesting that the market can go either way or simply continue sideways for the time being.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MARCH 7, 2021

March 6th, 2021 Comments off
craps front cover

The stock market had a very volatile week leading into this weekend. The internal indicators have been hovering in the lower range suggesting one more stab to the downside before a sustainable rally can be made. Friday’s reversal may have been a one-day wonder which shows how difficult it is to trade the short side of the market. My guess is that the smarter way to play this market is to buy for a good bounce off of the 200 moving average of a major index or key stock like TSLA or Apple. That could happen as early as Monday-Wednesday next week so be ready.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator has been trending down for a couple of weeks now. It is also starting to separate dots to the downside which has proven to be an indication of momentum to the downside. Solid bottoms have historically occurred when the dots cluster at a low point and this is not the case now. This suggests that any move up from here would be just a bounce and not the start of a sustained uptrend.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FEBRUARY 20, 2021

February 21st, 2021 Comments off
craps front cover

The stock market has been hovering near its all-time highs for all of this week. Friday’s action saw a strong advance/decline line and Dow Jones Transportation Index which suggests that there is still strength in the general stock market. At the same time, many stocks appear to have run out of gas and a decline into the end of February looks like a strong possibility. With the recent oversold readings in the McClellan Oscillators, a short term rally could easy materialize during next week.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator is starting to turn down after the most recent rally. With a cluster and turn down, the next thing that this indicator typically does is start to separate to the downside with greater losses ahead. We shall see in this difficult market to read.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 25, 2020

December 25th, 2020 Comments off
craps front cover

STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 25, 2020: The stock market has been hovering in the same range for several weeks now while digesting its substantial post-election gains. With many of the internal indicators near oversold readings, any short burst to the downside would produce a short-term buy signal worth taking a risk. It seems that the “Buy the Dip” strategy will continue to work into the future until it doesn’t.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator just broke below its 15-day moving average after “clustering” for several days near its high. This is a classic pattern for an intermediate term top. This would make a prudent swing trader or investor very careful at this time.