Archive

Posts Tagged ‘stock trading’

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FEBRUARY 10, 2019

February 10th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 10, 2019: The stock market showed some downside action with a turnaround near the close of Friday. Two of the internal oscillators are in “oversold” territory and may suggest that the downside pressure should subside near-term. But the other internal indicators (new choices to reflect other perspectives of the market) suggest that this is all short-term action that needs more time to set up properly for a stronger move in either direction.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The market may have hit a very short-term bottom on Friday but any major moves will require more time to set up properly. This may be a good time to step aside and let time create a better opportunity to trade.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FEBRUARY 4, 2019

February 5th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 4, 2019: The stock market has continued its strong, broad-based rally from the Christmas lows by going practically straight up. But now is the time for a correction of this rally (most likely starting after the State of the Union address Tuesday) and based on the momentum, I’d expect it to be more of a sideways, stalling decline than a steep drop which serves the purpose of chewing up time. But a good buying opportunity will likely arise from the next oversold reading.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The market may be setting itself up for a decline starting after Trump gives his State of the Union speech. This correction may not amount to a lot of points to the downside, but I’d be a buyer on the next oversold bottom. I think that the December lows were an important pivot point for this market and a continuation of the Bull Market.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JANUARY 27, 2019

January 27th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JANUARY 27, 2019: The stock market experienced a choppy week ending up about where it started. In the process, it has worked out some of its overbought condition. The internal indicators are largely neutral which suggests that the market can go in either direction with the same probability – either up towards heavy resistance or down for a 50% retracement.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: It’s anyone’s guess whether the market corrects from here or rallies and then corrects. Perhaps there will be a tradable low in mid-February to take new positions on the long side. But momentum still appears strong to the upside and it’s a tough bet trying to play the downside. The December low’s extreme technical readings may have put in a solid bottom for many months.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY SEPTEMBER 30, 2018

September 30th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 30, 2018: The stock market is churning at a high consolidation area which neither good or bad. While it may seem like the market is overdue for a correction after this long rally, it still shows resiliency in the face of a mixed bag of political and economic news. With the three timing indicators set almost identically around the neutral reading of “50,” I’d expect the market to either correct into a short-term bottom or rally into resistance and a short-term top. But most of all, there is nothing to do right now.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 47 or “Neutral.” This makes the market within striking range of a quick move to “Extreme Fear” under 25 and a chance to a short-term tradable rally to participate in.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MAY 19, 2018

May 20th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MAY 19, 2018: The internal indicators of the stock market have been trending down the last few days, chewing up time, and possibly setting itself up for another trading bottom as early as late next week. Another plausible scenario is for next week to produce a bounce with a more stable bottom about two weeks out. In any event, there is nothing to do but wait for the next set-up and that can only happen with a bout of bad news.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 52 or “Neutral.” This doesn’t really tell you anything except that it has probably seen the worst in terms of extreme negative sentiment. One more quick trip to the “Extreme Fear” area will probably be all that it takes for another tradable intermediate term bottom.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY APRIL 28, 2018

April 28th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR APRIL 28, 2018: The stock market may be setting itself up for an intermediate-term bottom next week. The internal breadth indicators below are all close to oversold readings and additional weakness is sure to trigger buy signals. If a decline next week starts to materialize, then look at it as an opportunity to go long and ignore the “bad news” that has to happen in order to create the public selling. The trick will be if this happens mostly on Friday when it will take more guts to make trading commitments over an uncertain weekend.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 40 or “Fear.” This reading is after it has been in the “Extreme Fear” range for many weeks. I would expect a brief one or two day return to the “Extreme Fear” zone to coincide with a new intermediate buy signal on any weakness next week. If so, this “correction” will have scared enough weak hands out of the long game with only strong hands left to ride the next rally up. Of course, if we rally straight up from here then this scenario goes out the window and the deck will be “shuffled” once again.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – APRIL 14, 2018

April 14th, 2018 Comments off

The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” has a current reading of 23 which is in the “Extreme Fear” zone. This suggests that the market is in a buying range and not a selling range. Tactically, this means that you should either buy or hold depending on your situation.

This indicator has remained in the “Extreme Fear” area for an abnormally long time. I would guess that it will leave this “oversold” area shortly and not return for some time. (After perhaps, one more spike down)

I would look to buy on any 2 to 3 day weakness that is accompanied by “obvious bad news” as the cover story for a good bottom in the market. I think that the next retest of the recent bottoms will be successful and that a sharp rally should follow. The only trick will be if the weakness occurs on a Friday where traders will have to sweat out the weekend of potentially more bad news.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MARCH 25, 2018

March 25th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MARCH 25, 2018: The stock market is setting itself up for a climatic bottom over the short-term. Breadth indicators are in “oversold” territory with the chance of become even more oversold if the market should sell-off on Monday-Tuesday. While a market panic is difficult to buy into, it may still be the proper strategy for buying low and selling high. But the proper to tactic would be to buy in smaller increments spread over 3-5 days during periods of weakness. This takes discipline that few amateurs possess.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 7 or “Extreme Fear.” With any weakness on Monday, this indicator will have the lowest reading in several years indicating a potential intermediate term bottom. To spread the risk, a wise trader should buy a combination of diversified broad-based ETFs and strong Blue-Chip dividend-paying stocks (example: Exxon, Microsoft, Apple, Wells Fargo). The first step would be to buy on extreme weakness in small pilot positions and add gradually. If a market panic should occur, it may take a few days for the market to stabilize or bounce. And then there is the possibility of a final wave down which a trader must be anticipate when conditions become so extreme as they are now.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – MARCH 2, 2018

March 1st, 2018 Comments off

The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” reading has a current reading of 8 which is well into the “Extreme Fear” zone. This suggests that the market is in a buying range and not a selling range. Tactically, this means that you should either buy or hold depending on your situation.

This indicator has remained in the “Extreme Fear” area for several weeks now. This is very abnormal and suggests that we have corrected long enough in terms of time. But the charts of the major indexes don’t appear to have declined enough in terms of price.

Today’s “Extreme Fear” reading means that it’s time to start taking pilot positions if you’re under-invested in preparation for a rally to challenge the old highs. A bottom may likely appear on either Friday or Monday but actually picking that bottom will be hard to do as always. You will have sweaty palms from the fear of taking a risk here, but it’s about time for the market to get out of the “Extreme Fear” zone. It’s been here too long.

Note: This reading of 8 is the lowest of this current down cycle and may mark the bottom of this correction.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FEBRUARY 5, 2018

February 5th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 5, 2018: The stock market is currently “oversold” in all of the internal indicators. Therefore, the market can hit a short-term bottom as early as Tuesday. And over the past several years, the market has rebounded from similar bottoms without retesting. But what is different now is how far and long the market has advanced in the post-election period. If you want to play for a fast money trade, I’d expect a rally to come in the next 5 trading sessions and likely coincide with a bounce off of the 200-day moving average in the S&P 500.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 40 or “Greed.” I would expect the next short-term bottom to occur when this indicator is below a reading of 25 in “Extreme Fear” territory. That could happen in the next few days and be worth the risk for a quick ride up to the old highs. My favorite trading vehicle because of its diversification and low-correlation to interest rates would be the QQQ Exchange Traded Fund in the area of 148-150.