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Forecasting Model for 2017 & Early 2018

December 14th, 2017 Comments off

Forecasting is difficult at best. Rarely is it accurate. This is a longtime study that projects the path of the S&P 500 for 2017.

The one thing that the turning points claim to project is merely that there will be a change in direction. It does not predict whether the market will go up or down. And it also does not claim to predict the amplitude of the move (how much it goes up or down)

So looking at this graph, the next turning point of significance (100/100 Power) is slated for January 17, 2018. That means that a major change of direction should occur on or near this date.

Will it be accurate?

And in what direction does this suggest?

The answer to the second question is that it will be in the opposite direction of where the market was heading into that point in time.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 3, 2017

December 3rd, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 3, 2017: Despite stock market’s historic run-up, it still may have more time to rally. Friday’s 300-point drop may have purged a lot of negativity and weak hands out of the market. The internal indicators are coming off of overbought readings and may be setting itself up for another rally after a brief drop into the traditional December 12-18 time slot. It’s more than likely that any correction of any significance will occur after the New Year.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Greed” after only one day being in the “Fear” territory. I’d still be looking to go long on any new oversold condition between December 12-18. Consider choppy action as a time to create such an oversold condition and a chance to once again ride up to new all-time highs.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – NOVEMBER 18, 2017

November 18th, 2017 Comments off


The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” reading has a current reading of 44 which is in the “Fear” zone. This allows the market to go in either direction so it is neither a selling or a buying area.

But this indicator continues to move across its range from “Extreme Greed” readings around 90 just a few weeks ago. Recent buying opportunities have come when this indicator gets a reading of 25 or lower.

Today’s “Fear” reading is the first one in a long time and may be suggesting that an oversold/pessimistic bottom is coming in the next few weeks. That would present a chance to get back onboard the market for another ride up to new highs.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 12, 2017

November 12th, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 12, 2017: The stock market has experienced a short correction in its rally since the August bottom. The internal indicators are slightly oversold and can support a continuation of the rally with the aid of any good news. But ideally, if the market continues to correct, it will set up a better buying opportunity around Thanksgiving or in the seasonal bottoming time around mid-December. For now, it looks like a good time to wait for a better entry point for a ride up into the New Year.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Neutral” after a long stay in the both the “Greed” and “Extreme Greed” territory. But a quick move lower into the “Extreme Fear” would probably present a good buying opportunity. I’m inclined to wait for such a time especially when that reading coincides with oversold readings in the internal indicators above. So for now, it’s a time for patience.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – NOVEMBER 5, 2017

November 5th, 2017 Comments off


The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” reading has a current reading of 66 which is in the “Greed” zone. This allows the market to go in either direction so it is neither a selling or a buying area.

One might think that the market’s continuing rally has to stop and correct at the very least. But it appears that there are still major portions of the general market that have stayed modest in their appreciation and present opportunities for price advances.

But since this indicator was in the “Extreme Greed” area for a long time, it may be working its way toward the “Extreme Fear” area and a buying opportunity a few weeks away from now.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY OCTOBER 21, 2017

October 21st, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR OCTOBER 21, 2017: The stock market continues to march upwards fueled by good news on the tax reform front. This rally has continued while many internal indicators have been reaching “oversold” levels. This would not appear to make any sense at all. Because of these confusing signals in the general market, it might be better to be on the sidelines until oversold indicators match up with market bottoms, not market tops.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Extreme Greed” after a short stay in the “Greed” territory. This is a simple indicator that guides an investor into the foundational discipline of buying low and selling high. Based on this indicator, this is not a “buy low” scenario, but instead a “sell high” environment. But more importantly, this is a unique time of a market with few, if any, remaining bears and almost total agreement on the bullish side. It’s just a matter of how long it can remain that way and what will be the trigger that finally creates a significant decline. But the truth is that no one really knows!

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – OCTOBER 3, 2017

October 2nd, 2017 Comments off


The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” reading has been in the “Extreme Greed” zone for several days now. It has even gone to the far extreme by posting a reading of 90 which probably marks an “internal top” or point of maximum upside momentum.

While this isn’t the only indicator of the market’s condition, it has represented a reliable gauge of market sentiment in the past. When the market is “over-loved” like it is now, it matches both the present overbought (in terms of price action) and overvalued (fundamental) condition.

Together, these 3 gauges confirm that this is highly likely the area of an important top and certainly not a time to become more bullish and hold large bets for more upside appreciation. That doesn’t mean that they market can’t go any higher in terms of price, but it does suggest that it won’t be going up for very much longer. If there is a time to move to the sidelines, this would be one of those.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY SEPTEMBER 23, 2017

September 23rd, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 23, 2017: The stock market is at the top of its price range with a few of the internal indicators in overbought territory. But other indicators show neutral readings which still allows the market to go in either direction with equal likelihood. This is one of those times where it’s probably most prudent to lighten up on over-extended positions and wait to add when the next oversold condition presents itself.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Greed” after being in the “Extreme Greed” range for a few days last week. Many times this means that this indicator will traverse itself from an “Extreme Greed” reading back down to an “Extreme Fear” reading. But most of all, this index is saying that this is not a good time to be buying. The next week should be interesting as the general market may be setting up for an October Crash. Stay alert!

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – SEPTEMBER 16, 2017

September 16th, 2017 Comments off


The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” reading is once again back in the “Extreme Greed” range after being in the “Extreme Fear” zone only a few weeks ago. At the beginning of this week, most of the internal indicators were showing “overbought” conditions. Plus, the market indices are pushing against resistance levels at the top of the price ranges.

All of these point to a time when it’s too late to buy and most likely a good time to sell or lighten up. And while this Fear/Greed Index is showing “Extreme Greed,” it can still move closer to the 90-95 range before exhausting itself to the upside.

Now is a time to start building up cash for the next buying opportunity when this indicator is back in the “Extreme Greed” area. That time is several weeks away.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY SEPTEMBER 10, 2017

September 10th, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 10, 2017: The stock market is in a sort of “no-man’s land” right now. Last week, it was in an “overbought” area and now it may be tracing out a pattern across its price range towards an “oversold” condition. With all of the internal indicators showing “neutral” readings, there is plenty of room for the market to go in either direction. But we are in the time of year when tops and bottoms can form, it would be prudent to play it safely right now and wait for a better opportunity to take shape in the coming weeks.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Fear” after being in the “neutral” range for a few days. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this index go back into the “Extreme Fear” range before finally hitting the bottom of this sideways correction. There isn’t any immediate action that needs to take place right now. This is a time to build cash reserves in anticipation of a better buying opportunity in the coming weeks.