Archive for December, 2017

Forecasting Model for 2017 & Early 2018

December 14th, 2017 Comments off

Forecasting is difficult at best. Rarely is it accurate. This is a longtime study that projects the path of the S&P 500 for 2017.

The one thing that the turning points claim to project is merely that there will be a change in direction. It does not predict whether the market will go up or down. And it also does not claim to predict the amplitude of the move (how much it goes up or down)

So looking at this graph, the next turning point of significance (100/100 Power) is slated for January 17, 2018. That means that a major change of direction should occur on or near this date.

Will it be accurate?

And in what direction does this suggest?

The answer to the second question is that it will be in the opposite direction of where the market was heading into that point in time.


December 3rd, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 3, 2017: Despite stock market’s historic run-up, it still may have more time to rally. Friday’s 300-point drop may have purged a lot of negativity and weak hands out of the market. The internal indicators are coming off of overbought readings and may be setting itself up for another rally after a brief drop into the traditional December 12-18 time slot. It’s more than likely that any correction of any significance will occur after the New Year.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:


THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Greed” after only one day being in the “Fear” territory. I’d still be looking to go long on any new oversold condition between December 12-18. Consider choppy action as a time to create such an oversold condition and a chance to once again ride up to new all-time highs.