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WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JULY 12, 2020

July 12th, 2020 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JULY 12, 2020: The stock market is near the top of its trading range. After a large gap down last month, the market has held its own for a few weeks now. The question is whether the market will fill that gap soon or head down from here. In any case, it does not appear that a new All-Time High is likely or if it does reach a new high – that will mark the end of the rally since March 23rd.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market’s internal indicators are reading “neutral.” This means that it could go either way from here. The move that I think may happen is a new closing high to fill the June gap, but that high marking the top of this move since March 23rd.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JUNE 16, 2020

June 17th, 2020 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JUNE 16, 2020: The stock market made a sharp move downwards on last Thursday and has recovered much of that decline over the last 3 trading days. This sets up the possibility of a Classic Dow Theory and Granville Non-Confirmation sell signal on the next closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This new unconfirmed high could mark the end of this powerul rally since the March 26th bottom.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market is setting itself up for a possible sell signal on the next closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That new high would be unconfirmed by the majority of other indicators and particularly the Dow Jones Transportation Average which would need to rally substantially in the next few days. Note: The next closing high may even have one or two additional days to the upside with each day being progressively weaker and more selective.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MAY 7, 2020

May 7th, 2020 Comments off

STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MAY 7, 2020: The stock market has been hovering in a tight trading range for the last couple of weeks. During this time, a few of the internal oscillators have come down to the “oversold” range. That brings the possibility of a short-term bottom in 2 to 3 trading days if the trend continues down. But be careful of a potential crash, too.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market is approaching a possible short-term buying opportunity as the internal indicators move down to oversold readings. But a trader must be careful not to jump the gun since there could be a downside break with momentum or a possible mini-crash.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY APRIL 11, 2020

April 11th, 2020 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR APRIL 11, 2020: Last week,the stock market said “no” to the idea of an immediate retest of the previous lows that so many were expecting. Instead, it went straight up in the face of bad news where it now sits at the halfway point of the entire previous decline. With the internal indicators just below “overbought” levels, one could expect a few more days of strength before the top of this rally can be expected.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market may have a few more days of strength before it corrects this rally phase. It is anyone’s guess whether the market will decline or back and fill. But the stage can be set for an extended rally where the majority missed out at the bottom, the fear of missing out kicks in, and the market climbs the proverbial “wall of worry.”

“The market will do whatever it has to do to embarrass the greatest number of people to the greatest extent possible.” — Walter Deemer’s Law Of Perversity

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MAY 13, 2019

May 19th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MAY 13, 2019: Note: I was ready to post this after Monday’s decline. These were the readings on that day’s close after a brutal decline. But in truth, I was looking for a follow through on Tuesday morning to fade a buy into. But Tuesday opened up and I never capitalized on this minor short-term buy signal.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market gave us a brief buy point at the end of Monday’s close, but it would have been tricky to catch. This is another piece of evidence that short-term trading is difficult to do in today’s environment. It’s better to wade in with smaller units as opportunities present themselves. You will go crazy trying to catch the perfect time to buy and thus, it is unwise to make large bets with the expectation of a short-term turnaround.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JULY 14, 2018

July 14th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JULY 14, 2018:  The market presented a tricky, short-term trading opportunity on July 3rd. It came from a semi-oversold condition which suggests that the rally will not be strong. So far, it appears as if the market can still go in either direction with the same degree of certainty. This is a time to be on the sidelines waiting for the next opportunity to set up. The Volatility Indicator will have to traverse across its oscillator from “overbought” to “oversold” which will probably take over a week to happen.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 47 or “neutral.” I’m still awaiting for a quick move into the “Extremely Fear” area in order to feel like the conditions are ripe for a more sustainable rally. So, we continue to wait for a better trading opportunity to the upside.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – MARCH 18, 2018

March 18th, 2018 Comments off

The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” reading has a current reading of 19 which is in the “Extreme Fear” zone. This suggests that the market is in a buying range and not a selling range. Tactically, this means that you should either buy or hold depending on your situation.

This indicator ventured out into the “Fear” area about a week ago, but has returned back into the “Extreme Greed” zone once again. My guess is that this indicator will not stay in the “Extreme Greed” area very long since it has already spent an abnormally long period of time in it last month.

I would look to buy weakness especially if we should receive oversold readings in breadth indicators, moves toward major indexes 200-day moving averages or retests of previous correction lows. While it is hard to say how much higher the general market can go up from here, the important thing to keep in mind is that this market has been correcting for a long enough time to support a healthy multi-month rally.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MARCH 10, 2018

March 10th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MARCH 10, 2018: The stock market is currently “overbought” in most of the internal indicators. Therefore, the market can hit a short-term top at any time. This has been a very tricky market to trade precisely, since the swings have been so punishing over the short-term when being too early with large bets. The market still has room to rally to the upside. As far as taking new long positions, the time for that was either last week or early February. Now is a time to watch and wait for the next “oversold” set-up.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 44 or “Fear.” This is the first move out of the “Extreme Fear” area in several weeks. As far as sentiment goes, we had our chance over the past month to take long positions on weakness. The thing to do now, is wait for a short-term oversold condition in two the McClellan Oscillators (the most reliable short-term indicators) in order to take new positions for another trip into new high territory.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JANUARY 15, 2018

January 16th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JANUARY 15, 2018: Despite the stock market’s historic and relentless rally, it still remains relatively “neutral” in its internal technical position. Only one out of the five that I follow is in the “overbought” area with the reliable “Volatility Indicator” in close range of a buy signal. While this is not an optimal time to “buy low and sell high,” it is most likely a time when there is a rotation of strength and a pause in the advance. I’d still be looking for another short-term oversold condition to create a new buying opportunity to the upside.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Extreme Greed.” This means that it is not a time to buy and one that you consider selling. I’d be looking for some short-term “bad news” to create a short, sharp drop that will present yet another buying opportunity to the upside. Despite the duration and extent of this rally, it still makes more sense to expect the market to go than go down over the short-to-intermediate term. Trying to guess tops is simply too hard to do with a measure of accuracy when you have a market of this nature.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 3, 2017

December 3rd, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 3, 2017: Despite stock market’s historic run-up, it still may have more time to rally. Friday’s 300-point drop may have purged a lot of negativity and weak hands out of the market. The internal indicators are coming off of overbought readings and may be setting itself up for another rally after a brief drop into the traditional December 12-18 time slot. It’s more than likely that any correction of any significance will occur after the New Year.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Greed” after only one day being in the “Fear” territory. I’d still be looking to go long on any new oversold condition between December 12-18. Consider choppy action as a time to create such an oversold condition and a chance to once again ride up to new all-time highs.