Archive

Posts Tagged ‘AAPL’

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JANUARY 8, 2022

January 8th, 2022 Comments off
craps front cover

The stock market had a rocky start to 2022. With several non-confirmations during the last week of December, it is not surprising that there would be problems this week. With that being said, the general market could stay in this range without a major move in either direction. But with the large percentage losses in many of last year’s dynamic growth stocks, the background is set for a final plunge for these shares. However, there aren’t any signs of capitulation that would mark that final bottom. So for now, I would recommend keeping your powder dry and resist the temptation of going long until we see more signs of extreme behavior/sentiment.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This indicator has rallied from its December 20th low and is in the process of clustering at a peak before heading lower again. A tradable bottom usually isn’t signaled unless the clustering starts after a sustained move down. That point is still weeks away in time.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Neutral” territory with a reading of 52. At the December 2018 bottom, this indicator reached a reading of 3. So we are a long way away from a swing trade to the upside. A minimum reading of 25 is required to reach the “Extreme Fear” range.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 5, 2021

December 5th, 2021 Comments off
craps front cover

The stock market had a volatile week with large movements in both directions. But under the surface, many stocks experienced large retracements from their all-time highs. With the negative news backdrop of the new COVID strain and larger than expected inflation projections, the market is ripe for a crash and reversal this coming week. If you’ve been waiting for an opportunity to make some fast money, this week may be your week. But this next rally may be a narrow advance so I’d stick with large-cap stocks like those in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This indicator has broken down and has a current oversold reading of 15. It satisfies the requirement of a bottom condition, but usually needs a cluster of readings in the lower area before rallying for a new up leg.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Extreme Fear” territory with a reading of 20. At the December 2018 bottom, this indicator reached a reading of 3. But overall, this indicator is sufficiently oversold to support a bounce upwards.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 27, 2021

November 27th, 2021 Comments off
craps front cover

The stock market turned down sharply on Friday and is now heading towards a possible bounce around the SPY 89-day moving average at 448. With the negative news build-up over the long weekend, we could easily have a panic crash on Monday. In any case, a sharp short bounce worth trading to the upside can be expected early next week. But what happens over the intermediate term is anyone’s guess. Another problem is the widespread expectation of a Santa Claus Rally which may be a dangerous assumption. You need to remember the alternative case of December 2018.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This indicator has broken down and is one trading day away from a possible “oversold” condition. In the past, this indicator has shown the ability to stay oversold for many days, but recently the bottom of the market has occurred shortly after entering this oversold territory. So be ready to move soon if you’re willing to risk playing the trading game.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Fear” territory after having been in the “Greed” area for some time. Friday’s sharp down took this indicator down quickly from a reading of 64 to 31 which is the largest one-day drop that I can ever recall. One or two more negative days and this indicator will be in the “Extreme Fear” range which is a precondition for a bottom.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 20, 2021

November 19th, 2021 Comments off
craps front cover

The stock market has been correcting and chewing up time since its recent move to all-time highs. In the meantime, three of the short-term oscillators have flashed “oversold” readings suggesting that a short-term bottom is here now. This may be setting the market up for one last rally into December before any major correction occurs. You could start taking positions on any weakness during the next few days or sell any remaining positions into strength as the market continues to climb the proverbial “wall of worry.”

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This indicator has been clustering in the overbought range, but is now breaking down and headed across its Ultimate Indicator oscillator’s range towards the “oversold” area. According to the history of this indicator, it will need some clustering at a lower level before a sustainable rally can happen. What I’d expect instead would be a short, sharp rally to new all-time highs in December, but not one of duration.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Greed” territory after having been in the “Extreme Greed” area for some time.. One has to be very careful about taking long positions at this time even though the short-term oscillators are “oversold.” Bottoms usually don’t occur unless this indicator has a reading of 25 or less (Extreme Fear).

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY OCTOBER 24, 2021

October 23rd, 2021 Comments off
craps front cover

The stock market has been doing a great job of “climbing the wall of worry.” On Thursday of this past week, many short-term indicators topped out and the evaluation is whether it did so from: 1) exhaustion & a move down across the trading range or 2) just a pause before resuming its relentless climb. Unfortunately, no one really knows despite what they may claim with almost total certainty. I would look for either a decline and then a failed retest or a high volume reversal before making any bets to the downside. Sometimes it’s just better to watch from the sidelines and preserve your capital (chips).

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Greed” territory with a reading of 67 after being in the “Extreme Greed” zone for a day or so. This indicator gave a one-day buy signal in early October, but it is not a reliable timing tool for catching tops. Therefore, it’s not worth reading too much into its reading this coming week.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MAY 26, 2021

May 27th, 2021 Comments off
craps front cover

The stock market is hovering near its all-time highs with no apparent reason to decline at this point in time. In fact, the market sentiment as measured by the “Fear/Greed Index” suggests that a short-term buy signal is close at hand. With the Memorial Day holiday quickly upon us, it doesn’t look like a trading opportunity of any kind is not likely until June. This is a time to let the market set itself up for its next big move. In the meantime, the odds still favor a market that continues to drift upwards.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This indicator is clustering in the oversold range. This is an indication that a breakout is eminent. But in which direction is not clear right now.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Fear” territory which is close to the “Extreme Fear” zone that often signals a buy. If the market were to have a short term decline, a buy signal from this indicator could be triggered.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MARCH 31, 2021

April 1st, 2021 Comments off
craps front cover

The stock market bottomed in early March and has not retested that level since. Right now, all of the internal indicators are mid-range with no pressure to go in either direction. There is strength in the advance/decline line and the Dow Jones Transportation Average, while there is apparent weakness in the McClellan Summation Index. All of this suggests that a churning market with a slight bias to the upside can be reasonably expected with no sharp sustained actions in either direction.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator has been in a downtrend for several days now but without a break in the price action. Right now, the indicator is clustering with a possible move back to the upside soon. In addition, the Fear/Greed Index is in the “Neutral” territory suggesting that the market can go either way or simply continue sideways for the time being.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MARCH 7, 2021

March 6th, 2021 Comments off
craps front cover

The stock market had a very volatile week leading into this weekend. The internal indicators have been hovering in the lower range suggesting one more stab to the downside before a sustainable rally can be made. Friday’s reversal may have been a one-day wonder which shows how difficult it is to trade the short side of the market. My guess is that the smarter way to play this market is to buy for a good bounce off of the 200 moving average of a major index or key stock like TSLA or Apple. That could happen as early as Monday-Wednesday next week so be ready.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator has been trending down for a couple of weeks now. It is also starting to separate dots to the downside which has proven to be an indication of momentum to the downside. Solid bottoms have historically occurred when the dots cluster at a low point and this is not the case now. This suggests that any move up from here would be just a bounce and not the start of a sustained uptrend.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 25, 2020

December 25th, 2020 Comments off
craps front cover

STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 25, 2020: The stock market has been hovering in the same range for several weeks now while digesting its substantial post-election gains. With many of the internal indicators near oversold readings, any short burst to the downside would produce a short-term buy signal worth taking a risk. It seems that the “Buy the Dip” strategy will continue to work into the future until it doesn’t.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator just broke below its 15-day moving average after “clustering” for several days near its high. This is a classic pattern for an intermediate term top. This would make a prudent swing trader or investor very careful at this time.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 15, 2020

November 16th, 2020 Comments off
craps front cover

STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 14, 2020: The stock market rallied strongly Post-Election last week with shorts getting squeezed and a radical rotation into low-performing basic industry stocks. But what happens from here is anyone’s guess. One thing seems certain: high volatility can be expected in these next couple of months and with that come trading opportunities for disciplined, clear-thinking swing traders.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

Short-Term Swing Trading Strategy: The market may be heading towards a 27-day cycle high for Wednesday November 18th. The next low would then be projected to Wednesday December 9th which is a 27-day cycle low. If the technicals match up well with this scenario, I’d be looking to make some trading moves to match the rhythm of the market.