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Posts Tagged ‘stock action’

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY SEPTEMBER 11, 2021

September 11th, 2021 Comments off
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The stock market appears to have topped out over the shorter-term on September 2nd. Since that time, the market has been trending downwards towards a possible bottom in mid-September. Recent bottoms have occurred on July 19th and August 19th which were 23 trading days apart. If that same pattern were to repeat itself, then the next bottom would be between September 19 and September 22. So be ready for a quick trade to the upside if the conditions for a bottom look worth risking.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Fear” territory with a reading of 34 after being in the “Neutral” and “Greed” zone for the past two weeks. The best buy signals on major corrections have occurred when the reading gets below 10. But a minimum reading of 25 would be required for a short-term bottom worth trading.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY AUGUST 21, 2021

August 21st, 2021 Comments off
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The stock market traded lower for most of the week that coincided with the turmoil in Afghanistan. With the rally on Friday, the Dow Jone Industrial Average is about 500 points below its August 16th high. I would expect a rally to new highs to be unconfirmed by the majority of other indicators. That would set up a Dow Theory Sell Signal as well as a Granville Sell Signal worth shorting or selling existing long positions. Such a scenario could take place in the next 3-7 trading sessions so be on your toes for this developing opportunity.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Extreme Fear” territory with a reading of 25 after being in the “Extreme Fear” zone with a reading of 22 on Thursday. The best buy signals on major corrections have occurred when the reading gets below 10, however.

Monday August 23rd Note: The Granville Sell Signal usually occurs when the new unconfirmed high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average coincides with an obvious public good news cover story. Could the Pfizer COVID vaccine FDA approval be that cover story?

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JULY 24, 2021

July 24th, 2021 Comments off
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The stock market spiked down on Monday and then rallied strongly the remaining 4 days of the week. I was looking for a trade set-up on Tuesday morning, the market did not present an opportunity to “fade” the trade . This has happened often in the past and it is often wisest to buy during the last half hour of trading instead of letting the futures market change course and ruin your trading plans. I missed a good trading opportunity by trying to be too perfect in a tricky market. In this case, it’s more important to determine a gradual betting strategy than trying to time a “hot and cold” market too closely.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Fear” territory with a reading of 32 after being in the “Extreme Fear” zone with a reading of 17 on Monday. So this indicator did flash a clear buy signal of Monday which I saw but didn’t act on.

Note: Friday July 23rd’s, new closing high in the Dow Jone Industrial Average was not confirmed by the Dow Jones Transportation Average. This sets up a classic Dow Theory Sell Signal. Mark this date as a possible intermediate term top.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MAY 26, 2021

May 27th, 2021 Comments off
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The stock market is hovering near its all-time highs with no apparent reason to decline at this point in time. In fact, the market sentiment as measured by the “Fear/Greed Index” suggests that a short-term buy signal is close at hand. With the Memorial Day holiday quickly upon us, it doesn’t look like a trading opportunity of any kind is not likely until June. This is a time to let the market set itself up for its next big move. In the meantime, the odds still favor a market that continues to drift upwards.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This indicator is clustering in the oversold range. This is an indication that a breakout is eminent. But in which direction is not clear right now.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Fear” territory which is close to the “Extreme Fear” zone that often signals a buy. If the market were to have a short term decline, a buy signal from this indicator could be triggered.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MAY 2, 2021

May 1st, 2021 Comments off
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The stock market bottomed in early March and has not retested that level since. Right now, all of the internal indicators are mid-range with no pressure to go in either direction. With recent new all-time highs, a correction can be expected especially with earning season having already passed. If a correction starts now, it could be finished by the end of the week or the beginning of next week at the earliest. Then one could expect another run to higher highs in all the major indices.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This indicator ticked lower on Friday and could suggest the beginning of a downtrend. Overall, this indicator has held up well for the market.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Greed” territory which suggests that a bottom won’t materialize until it at least touches the “Extreme Fear” reading. That would take 5 to 7 trading days at the very least.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MARCH 31, 2021

April 1st, 2021 Comments off
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The stock market bottomed in early March and has not retested that level since. Right now, all of the internal indicators are mid-range with no pressure to go in either direction. There is strength in the advance/decline line and the Dow Jones Transportation Average, while there is apparent weakness in the McClellan Summation Index. All of this suggests that a churning market with a slight bias to the upside can be reasonably expected with no sharp sustained actions in either direction.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator has been in a downtrend for several days now but without a break in the price action. Right now, the indicator is clustering with a possible move back to the upside soon. In addition, the Fear/Greed Index is in the “Neutral” territory suggesting that the market can go either way or simply continue sideways for the time being.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MARCH 7, 2021

March 6th, 2021 Comments off
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The stock market had a very volatile week leading into this weekend. The internal indicators have been hovering in the lower range suggesting one more stab to the downside before a sustainable rally can be made. Friday’s reversal may have been a one-day wonder which shows how difficult it is to trade the short side of the market. My guess is that the smarter way to play this market is to buy for a good bounce off of the 200 moving average of a major index or key stock like TSLA or Apple. That could happen as early as Monday-Wednesday next week so be ready.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator has been trending down for a couple of weeks now. It is also starting to separate dots to the downside which has proven to be an indication of momentum to the downside. Solid bottoms have historically occurred when the dots cluster at a low point and this is not the case now. This suggests that any move up from here would be just a bounce and not the start of a sustained uptrend.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FEBRUARY 20, 2021

February 21st, 2021 Comments off
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The stock market has been hovering near its all-time highs for all of this week. Friday’s action saw a strong advance/decline line and Dow Jones Transportation Index which suggests that there is still strength in the general stock market. At the same time, many stocks appear to have run out of gas and a decline into the end of February looks like a strong possibility. With the recent oversold readings in the McClellan Oscillators, a short term rally could easy materialize during next week.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator is starting to turn down after the most recent rally. With a cluster and turn down, the next thing that this indicator typically does is start to separate to the downside with greater losses ahead. We shall see in this difficult market to read.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 25, 2020

December 25th, 2020 Comments off
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 25, 2020: The stock market has been hovering in the same range for several weeks now while digesting its substantial post-election gains. With many of the internal indicators near oversold readings, any short burst to the downside would produce a short-term buy signal worth taking a risk. It seems that the “Buy the Dip” strategy will continue to work into the future until it doesn’t.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator just broke below its 15-day moving average after “clustering” for several days near its high. This is a classic pattern for an intermediate term top. This would make a prudent swing trader or investor very careful at this time.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 15, 2020

November 16th, 2020 Comments off
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 14, 2020: The stock market rallied strongly Post-Election last week with shorts getting squeezed and a radical rotation into low-performing basic industry stocks. But what happens from here is anyone’s guess. One thing seems certain: high volatility can be expected in these next couple of months and with that come trading opportunities for disciplined, clear-thinking swing traders.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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Short-Term Swing Trading Strategy: The market may be heading towards a 27-day cycle high for Wednesday November 18th. The next low would then be projected to Wednesday December 9th which is a 27-day cycle low. If the technicals match up well with this scenario, I’d be looking to make some trading moves to match the rhythm of the market.