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WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JULY 14, 2018

July 14th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JULY 14, 2018:  The market presented a tricky, short-term trading opportunity on July 3rd. It came from a semi-oversold condition which suggests that the rally will not be strong. So far, it appears as if the market can still go in either direction with the same degree of certainty. This is a time to be on the sidelines waiting for the next opportunity to set up. The Volatility Indicator will have to traverse across its oscillator from “overbought” to “oversold” which will probably take over a week to happen.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 47 or “neutral.” I’m still awaiting for a quick move into the “Extremely Fear” area in order to feel like the conditions are ripe for a more sustainable rally. So, we continue to wait for a better trading opportunity to the upside.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – JUNE 30, 2018

June 30th, 2018 Comments off

The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” has a current reading of 34 which is in the “Fear” zone. This suggests that the market is within range of a buying opportunity on further weakness.

This indicator has been in the “neutral” area for some time as well as “Fear” and “Greed,” but it has avoided both “Extreme Fear” and “Extreme Greed” readings in past month.

With the internal indicators approaching “oversold” readings, this suggests that a tradable bottom could occur in the coming week to 10 days. While it is uncertain to how powerful a rally might be from here, it probably is worth taking some positions on weakness particularly if it is accompanied by “obvious bad news.”

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JUNE 17, 2018

June 17th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JUNE 17, 2018Some internal indicators of the stock market are showing “oversold” readings, while others are trending down. This suggests that a short-term bottom could be setting up for later this week. I see this as a quick trading opportunity and may likely come with more bad news on the “trade war” front. The “Volatility Indicator” would have to reach oversold levels before I’d make that move with my trading account.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 61 or “Greed.” This is largely a neutral reading and doesn’t suggest any direction for the stock market at this time. Any moves are likely to be short-term in nature. An intermediate top or bottom does not seem likely in the coming weeks.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – MARCH 18, 2018

March 18th, 2018 Comments off

The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” reading has a current reading of 19 which is in the “Extreme Fear” zone. This suggests that the market is in a buying range and not a selling range. Tactically, this means that you should either buy or hold depending on your situation.

This indicator ventured out into the “Fear” area about a week ago, but has returned back into the “Extreme Greed” zone once again. My guess is that this indicator will not stay in the “Extreme Greed” area very long since it has already spent an abnormally long period of time in it last month.

I would look to buy weakness especially if we should receive oversold readings in breadth indicators, moves toward major indexes 200-day moving averages or retests of previous correction lows. While it is hard to say how much higher the general market can go up from here, the important thing to keep in mind is that this market has been correcting for a long enough time to support a healthy multi-month rally.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MARCH 10, 2018

March 10th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MARCH 10, 2018: The stock market is currently “overbought” in most of the internal indicators. Therefore, the market can hit a short-term top at any time. This has been a very tricky market to trade precisely, since the swings have been so punishing over the short-term when being too early with large bets. The market still has room to rally to the upside. As far as taking new long positions, the time for that was either last week or early February. Now is a time to watch and wait for the next “oversold” set-up.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 44 or “Fear.” This is the first move out of the “Extreme Fear” area in several weeks. As far as sentiment goes, we had our chance over the past month to take long positions on weakness. The thing to do now, is wait for a short-term oversold condition in two the McClellan Oscillators (the most reliable short-term indicators) in order to take new positions for another trip into new high territory.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JANUARY 15, 2018

January 16th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JANUARY 15, 2018: Despite the stock market’s historic and relentless rally, it still remains relatively “neutral” in its internal technical position. Only one out of the five that I follow is in the “overbought” area with the reliable “Volatility Indicator” in close range of a buy signal. While this is not an optimal time to “buy low and sell high,” it is most likely a time when there is a rotation of strength and a pause in the advance. I’d still be looking for another short-term oversold condition to create a new buying opportunity to the upside.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Extreme Greed.” This means that it is not a time to buy and one that you consider selling. I’d be looking for some short-term “bad news” to create a short, sharp drop that will present yet another buying opportunity to the upside. Despite the duration and extent of this rally, it still makes more sense to expect the market to go than go down over the short-to-intermediate term. Trying to guess tops is simply too hard to do with a measure of accuracy when you have a market of this nature.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 3, 2017

December 3rd, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 3, 2017: Despite stock market’s historic run-up, it still may have more time to rally. Friday’s 300-point drop may have purged a lot of negativity and weak hands out of the market. The internal indicators are coming off of overbought readings and may be setting itself up for another rally after a brief drop into the traditional December 12-18 time slot. It’s more than likely that any correction of any significance will occur after the New Year.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Greed” after only one day being in the “Fear” territory. I’d still be looking to go long on any new oversold condition between December 12-18. Consider choppy action as a time to create such an oversold condition and a chance to once again ride up to new all-time highs.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – NOVEMBER 18, 2017

November 18th, 2017 Comments off


The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” reading has a current reading of 44 which is in the “Fear” zone. This allows the market to go in either direction so it is neither a selling or a buying area.

But this indicator continues to move across its range from “Extreme Greed” readings around 90 just a few weeks ago. Recent buying opportunities have come when this indicator gets a reading of 25 or lower.

Today’s “Fear” reading is the first one in a long time and may be suggesting that an oversold/pessimistic bottom is coming in the next few weeks. That would present a chance to get back onboard the market for another ride up to new highs.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – NOVEMBER 5, 2017

November 5th, 2017 Comments off


The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” reading has a current reading of 66 which is in the “Greed” zone. This allows the market to go in either direction so it is neither a selling or a buying area.

One might think that the market’s continuing rally has to stop and correct at the very least. But it appears that there are still major portions of the general market that have stayed modest in their appreciation and present opportunities for price advances.

But since this indicator was in the “Extreme Greed” area for a long time, it may be working its way toward the “Extreme Fear” area and a buying opportunity a few weeks away from now.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – OCTOBER 25, 2015

October 24th, 2015 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR OCTOBER 25, 2015: The stock market appeared to be headed towards a short-term oversold bottom by mid-week, but instead revered to the upside in a big way. But daily TRIN readings have continued to be negative despite this last run-up which only serves to add confusion to any breadth analysis. That being said, this means that any buying opportunity will be pushed back another few weeks as the market will need time to set itself up again for an oversold bottom.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: This is a time to step aside and let the market digest its recent gains. It appears that the general market will continue to “climb a wall of worry” on its way to new closing highs. The only thing that would likely set itself up for a new decline and a possible oversold bottom would be an actual rise in interest rates by the FED. This still remains a possibility as we approach December.