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WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JANUARY 15, 2018

January 16th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JANUARY 15, 2018: Despite the stock market’s historic and relentless rally, it still remains relatively “neutral” in its internal technical position. Only one out of the five that I follow is in the “overbought” area with the reliable “Volatility Indicator” in close range of a buy signal. While this is not an optimal time to “buy low and sell high,” it is most likely a time when there is a rotation of strength and a pause in the advance. I’d still be looking for another short-term oversold condition to create a new buying opportunity to the upside.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Extreme Greed.” This means that it is not a time to buy and one that you consider selling. I’d be looking for some short-term “bad news” to create a short, sharp drop that will present yet another buying opportunity to the upside. Despite the duration and extent of this rally, it still makes more sense to expect the market to go than go down over the short-to-intermediate term. Trying to guess tops is simply too hard to do with a measure of accuracy when you have a market of this nature.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 3, 2017

December 3rd, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 3, 2017: Despite stock market’s historic run-up, it still may have more time to rally. Friday’s 300-point drop may have purged a lot of negativity and weak hands out of the market. The internal indicators are coming off of overbought readings and may be setting itself up for another rally after a brief drop into the traditional December 12-18 time slot. It’s more than likely that any correction of any significance will occur after the New Year.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Greed” after only one day being in the “Fear” territory. I’d still be looking to go long on any new oversold condition between December 12-18. Consider choppy action as a time to create such an oversold condition and a chance to once again ride up to new all-time highs.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – NOVEMBER 18, 2017

November 18th, 2017 Comments off


The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” reading has a current reading of 44 which is in the “Fear” zone. This allows the market to go in either direction so it is neither a selling or a buying area.

But this indicator continues to move across its range from “Extreme Greed” readings around 90 just a few weeks ago. Recent buying opportunities have come when this indicator gets a reading of 25 or lower.

Today’s “Fear” reading is the first one in a long time and may be suggesting that an oversold/pessimistic bottom is coming in the next few weeks. That would present a chance to get back onboard the market for another ride up to new highs.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – NOVEMBER 5, 2017

November 5th, 2017 Comments off


The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” reading has a current reading of 66 which is in the “Greed” zone. This allows the market to go in either direction so it is neither a selling or a buying area.

One might think that the market’s continuing rally has to stop and correct at the very least. But it appears that there are still major portions of the general market that have stayed modest in their appreciation and present opportunities for price advances.

But since this indicator was in the “Extreme Greed” area for a long time, it may be working its way toward the “Extreme Fear” area and a buying opportunity a few weeks away from now.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – OCTOBER 25, 2015

October 24th, 2015 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR OCTOBER 25, 2015: The stock market appeared to be headed towards a short-term oversold bottom by mid-week, but instead revered to the upside in a big way. But daily TRIN readings have continued to be negative despite this last run-up which only serves to add confusion to any breadth analysis. That being said, this means that any buying opportunity will be pushed back another few weeks as the market will need time to set itself up again for an oversold bottom.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: This is a time to step aside and let the market digest its recent gains. It appears that the general market will continue to “climb a wall of worry” on its way to new closing highs. The only thing that would likely set itself up for a new decline and a possible oversold bottom would be an actual rise in interest rates by the FED. This still remains a possibility as we approach December.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – OCTOBER 18, 2015

October 18th, 2015 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR OCTOBER 18, 2015: The majority of stock market indices find themselves near their 200-day moving average. Internal breadth indicators are generally in “mid-range” making it possible to go in either direction. The last two months have shown weakness towards the end of the month so don’t be surprised to see a dip as we approach October’s final days. Otherwise, stay neutral and patient waiting for the next set-up.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: This is a time to step aside and let the market set itself up for its next big move. Expect a decline into month’s end and a possible buying opportunity if the market can get oversold. Any decline from here is not likely to violate August’s lows and weakness will probably be a good time to get reinvested to the long side.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – SEPTEMBER 27, 2015

September 27th, 2015 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 27, 2015: The stock market is moving closer to another oversold condition as it aims to retest the August lows. Historically, early October is a time in the stock market cycle where bottoms commonly occur. But this time, that bottom may come a little earlier. Stay ready and willing to take new long positions on weakness in the coming two weeks.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The internal indicators are close to flashing oversold buy signals marking the end of this current correction. The next oversold condition near the retest of the previous lows may be an important intermediate buying opportunity. Sentiment is again starting to shift too far to the negative side. Anticipate a short sharp decline on obvious bad news to create the backdrop to the next signal to buy. Top non-leverage buying candidates based on liquidity, diversification, and performance include:  QQQ and DIA

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – SEPTEMBER 13, 2015

September 12th, 2015 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 13, 2015: The stock market is moving closer to an overbought condition after the most recent panic to the downside. Strength on Monday or Tuesday could mark the top of this most recent move and start the decline to retest the August or last October lows. This is a time to lighten up into any strength and to keep your powder dry for an important buying opportunity soon.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The internal indicators are close to flashing sell signals marking the end of this current rally. The next oversold condition near the retest of the previous lows may be an important buying opportunity.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – AUGUST 30, 2015

August 30th, 2015 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR AUGUST 30, 2015: The stock market has established a panic intraday low which will most likely not be violated in the intermediate term. However, a retest of the lows may produce a new closing low for the DJIA. Such a move would create the ideal environment to establish new positions for a run towards new all-time highs. But first, we need to work off the present rally, chew up time, and start the decline down below Tuesday’s closing low.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The internal indicators show that there is still more room to the upside. But overall, the set-up is not ideal for taking on new long positions (or short positions for that manner). This is one of those times where the majority of investors and traders should step aside and let things settle down to more reasonable/tolerable daily swings.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – AUGUST 23, 2015

August 23rd, 2015 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR AUGUST 23, 2015: The Fear & Greed Index has a current reading of 5 indicating “Extreme Fear.” This means that in terms of sentiment, we are in the buy zone now. If we don’t get government manipulation over the weekend, it is possible that we have a panic intraday low on either Monday or Tuesday. This might lead to a short-term bounce of several hundred Dow points. And while the past declines have resulted in V-shaped bottoms, this correction may be the one that requires a retest of the lows in order to begin a sustainable rally.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: While the market has gone down a lot in terms of price and sentiment, but it has not gone down long enough in duration. That means that bounces can be played nimbly over the short term, but a safer longer term bottom is probably weeks away. You may want to play the bounce which could come on Monday or Tuesday, but it might be wiser to wait at least for the retest of Friday’s low.