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WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JUNE 15, 2019

June 15th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JUNE 15, 2019: The stock market was overbought in all 5 internal indicator by midweek and are all trending down in the same pattern as of this weekend. This setup could lead to a buying opportunity by the end of the coming week if all 5 indicators continue on their current path. We haven’t seen this clean a pattern in awhile so be ready to take trading positions as early as this coming Friday.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market has a very clean top with almost identical charts in all 5 internal indicators. This is confirmation of a short-term trend change with a move across the channel to a corresponding “clean” bottom in all 5 internal indicators. That would be the desired outcome, but rarely do these things line up so cleanly. But if they do, we may have a nice trading bottom forming by the end of this week or the beginning to next week.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JUNE 2, 2019

June 5th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JUNE 2, 2019: The stock market is oversold in two out of the five internal indicators. Any weakness on Monday or Tuesday should be considered a short-term buying opportunity. Expect this bottom to be a tricky one to catch (like they all are) and be prepared to buy early rather than be left back at the station. (Note: This was supposed to have been posted on Sunday night but was delayed due to a personal emergency.) 

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market is oversold enough to begin looking to accumulated broad-based stock positions. The trickiest scenario would be for the market to open higher on Monday and force traders to buy into strength rather than weakness.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MAY 13, 2019

May 19th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MAY 13, 2019: Note: I was ready to post this after Monday’s decline. These were the readings on that day’s close after a brutal decline. But in truth, I was looking for a follow through on Tuesday morning to fade a buy into. But Tuesday opened up and I never capitalized on this minor short-term buy signal.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market gave us a brief buy point at the end of Monday’s close, but it would have been tricky to catch. This is another piece of evidence that short-term trading is difficult to do in today’s environment. It’s better to wade in with smaller units as opportunities present themselves. You will go crazy trying to catch the perfect time to buy and thus, it is unwise to make large bets with the expectation of a short-term turnaround.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY APRIL 23, 2019

April 24th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR APRIL 23, 2019: The stock market hits oversold readings on Monday giving us a brief short-term buy signal. That signal proved to be a timely entry points for today’s strong rally. With the bottom being only a day ago, it is certainly possible for the market to continue its rally for several more days. This has certainly been a classic “climb the wall of worry” rally with no apparent reason to stop its climb especially with its most recent pause to refresh.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market registered a short term oversold bottom on Monday. While the market is hitting resistance near its old highs, the timing of yesterday’s bottom gives it lots of time to work itself higher.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY APRIL 6, 2019

April 7th, 2019 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR APRIL 6, 2019: The stock market is now at the top of its trading range with all 5 internal indicators in “overbought” territory. This usually suggests that the market will fail on its first attempt to break above this current price range. But with the persistent strength of this market, it would be risky to bet on an immediate downturn. Until there are more obvious non-confirmations and/or a strong downside reversal, the Bulls will still have the upper-hand on this market.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The market appears to be setting itself up for an eventual upside breakout on the news of a trade deal with China. But could this event become the trigger for a downside reversal on high volume? That’s the question that I’d be anticipating as I view this market in the current news environment remembering the words and wisdom of the late Joseph E. Granville, “the obvious is obviously wrong.”

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 9, 2018

December 9th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 9, 2018: The stock market has shown tremendous volatility this past week. Since Black Friday after Thanksgiving, the market has gone up 6 days followed by sharp declines for the last 3 days. One might expect that the market may find a short-term bottom either Tuesday or Wednesday based on time symmetry. And based on the internal indicators listed below, a bottom will also require 2 to 4 more days of decline before reaching oversold readings.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 11 or “Extreme Fear.” The sentiment is certainly negative as this indicator has remained in the negative territory for a couple of months now. The trading environment is very tricky and will punish anyone who is on the wrong side of the market. If you have the temperament to trade, you’ll find lots of opportunities for some fast money. But for most people, this is a market to avoid until it calms down and shows more signs of capitulation. The “blood” is not quite “on the street” but it’s getting there. Be careful out there!

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JULY 14, 2018

July 14th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JULY 14, 2018:  The market presented a tricky, short-term trading opportunity on July 3rd. It came from a semi-oversold condition which suggests that the rally will not be strong. So far, it appears as if the market can still go in either direction with the same degree of certainty. This is a time to be on the sidelines waiting for the next opportunity to set up. The Volatility Indicator will have to traverse across its oscillator from “overbought” to “oversold” which will probably take over a week to happen.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 47 or “neutral.” I’m still awaiting for a quick move into the “Extremely Fear” area in order to feel like the conditions are ripe for a more sustainable rally. So, we continue to wait for a better trading opportunity to the upside.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – JUNE 30, 2018

June 30th, 2018 Comments off

The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” has a current reading of 34 which is in the “Fear” zone. This suggests that the market is within range of a buying opportunity on further weakness.

This indicator has been in the “neutral” area for some time as well as “Fear” and “Greed,” but it has avoided both “Extreme Fear” and “Extreme Greed” readings in past month.

With the internal indicators approaching “oversold” readings, this suggests that a tradable bottom could occur in the coming week to 10 days. While it is uncertain to how powerful a rally might be from here, it probably is worth taking some positions on weakness particularly if it is accompanied by “obvious bad news.”

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JUNE 17, 2018

June 17th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JUNE 17, 2018Some internal indicators of the stock market are showing “oversold” readings, while others are trending down. This suggests that a short-term bottom could be setting up for later this week. I see this as a quick trading opportunity and may likely come with more bad news on the “trade war” front. The “Volatility Indicator” would have to reach oversold levels before I’d make that move with my trading account.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 61 or “Greed.” This is largely a neutral reading and doesn’t suggest any direction for the stock market at this time. Any moves are likely to be short-term in nature. An intermediate top or bottom does not seem likely in the coming weeks.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – MARCH 18, 2018

March 18th, 2018 Comments off

The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” reading has a current reading of 19 which is in the “Extreme Fear” zone. This suggests that the market is in a buying range and not a selling range. Tactically, this means that you should either buy or hold depending on your situation.

This indicator ventured out into the “Fear” area about a week ago, but has returned back into the “Extreme Greed” zone once again. My guess is that this indicator will not stay in the “Extreme Greed” area very long since it has already spent an abnormally long period of time in it last month.

I would look to buy weakness especially if we should receive oversold readings in breadth indicators, moves toward major indexes 200-day moving averages or retests of previous correction lows. While it is hard to say how much higher the general market can go up from here, the important thing to keep in mind is that this market has been correcting for a long enough time to support a healthy multi-month rally.