WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – DECEMBER 4, 2016

December 3rd, 2016 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 4, 2016: The stock market has been correcting its move from the election lows over the past several days. With the majority of internal breadth indicators at or near “oversold” readings, this suggests that a short-term rally should take place in the next trading session or two. The rally from here may be the last one for this giant move from last February’s bottom. Look for this rally to be lead by the oil stocks and unconfirmed by the leading technology stocks (Amazon, Facebook, Google, Apple) which typically signal the end of a major move.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Greed” after a short stint in the “Extreme Greed” territory. If we get a rally from right here, the new readings should mostly be in the “Extreme Greed” area and signal a time to get out of the market for the intermediate term. Expect a decline after this next rally to last two to three months and probably retract all of the “Trump Rally” and possibly more. But for now, look for one more short-term rally with several non-confirmations to finish this major move from the February lows.

BRADLEY SIDEROGRAPH STOCK MARKET FORECAST FOR 2017

November 28th, 2016 Comments off

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FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – NOVEMBER 27, 2016

November 27th, 2016 Comments off

fear-greed-nov-26This indicator is labeled as being in the “Greed” zone right now.  Ideal buying opportunities have only occurred when the general market has been in the “Extreme Fear” zone. Conversely, optimal selling opportunities tend to occur when the general market has been in the “Extreme Greed” zone. This suggests that the market needs a little more time in order to generate greater greed in order to sell. So don’t be surprised if the market continues to zig-zag its way to higher highs. With the strength of this move, the market can stay in the “Extreme Greed” area for over  a week as well.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – OCTOBER 29, 2016

October 29th, 2016 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR OCTOBER 29, 2016: From a breadth perspective, the stock market is in an oversold condition right now. But it is days to a week or so away from reaching a similar level on a sentiment basis. With the big news on the political front Friday, that sentiment could change quickly to get in line with the breadth indicators causing a bottom to form around Election Day November 7-9. Be ready to buy long on a panic low forming around that time.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The sentiment indicators such as the Fear/Greed Index and the Blogger Sentiment Poll are in neutral positions. Before a sustained move in either direction, we need these indicators to go to an extreme. But the internal breadth indicators are now at oversold readings. This means that the breadth of the market has been extremely negative and is one of the key prerequisites to a bottom formation. That bottom looks like it is forming just in time for Election Day. Caution: It will be tricky and hard to catch at the exact bottom. Being a day or two early or late could cost you lots of money so be nimble and ready to buy incrementally into the panic. It will most likely be a V-shaped bottom.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – OCTOBER 22, 2016

October 22nd, 2016 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR OCTOBER 22, 2016: The stock market is in a neutral trading range as it sets itself up for a possible big move around Election Day. The internal breadth indicators are trending up suggesting that a minor short-term top could occur during the coming week. Then we could have a final drop into a low about November 7-9. Now would be a good time to get yourself ready to participate in a year-end rally of significance. But first, beware of news that will trick the public into selling right at the turning point…alas the Brexit vote.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The internal breadth and sentiment indicators such as the Fear/Greed Index and the Blogger Sentiment Poll are in neutral positions. Before a sustained move in either direction, we need these indicators to go to an extreme. That takes time which means that nothing of significance will occur in the general market for a few weeks.

McClellan Summation Breadth Index October 20, 2016

October 20th, 2016 Comments off

mcclellan-oscillator-oct-20Looking at the bottom chart of the Summation Index, I’d be very careful about trying to catch the bottom of this move. It looks like a giant head-and-shoulder top to me. That means a lot more time devoted to the downside and a reading of -400 minimum. After it crosses the -400 reading, you have about a 1-2 weeks lead-time before the final bottom is reached. And as we all know, the exact bottom is usually very tricky to catch….better to scale-in on the final leg down.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – OCTOBER 16, 2016

October 17th, 2016 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR OCTOBER 16, 2016: The stock market is approaching oversold readings in all of the internal breadth indicators that I monitor. This suggests that a rally is possible next week after further initial weakness in the overall stock market. With the Fear/Greed Sentiment Index within range of an “Extreme Fear” reading, it certainly appears likely that, given additional weakness, a short-to-intermediate term bottom is near. So be ready to commit new funds to the long side if that should happen for a quick ride up to challenge the all-time highs.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The internal breadth and sentiment indicators suggest that the market is becoming both oversold and under-loved. This could create the conditions for a short-term bottom that will set the stage for a new rally to challenge the all-time highs. If we get weakness on Monday and/or Tuesday, this might be a good time to re-enter the market on the long side.

FEAR/GREED SENTIMENT INDEX – OCTOBER 15, 2016

October 15th, 2016 Comments off

fear-greed-oct-15This indicator is labeled as being in the “Fear” zone right now.  Ideal buying opportunities have only occurred when the general market has been in the “Extreme Fear” zone. This suggests that the market needs a little more time in order to generate greater fear. This will help set for a better intermediate-term buying opportunity. That could happen as early as next week. (Source: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed)

BLOGGER SENTIMENT FOR THE WEEK OF OCTOBER 10-14, 2016

October 12th, 2016 Comments off

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This indicator shows that the general stock market was completely neutral on Monday morning from a sentiment perspective. Both Bullish and Bearish blogger/market analysts weighed in at 42% each. This suggests that the market can go in either direction and that a top or bottom is weeks away. (Source: http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/)

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – OCTOBER 9, 2016

October 9th, 2016 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR OCTOBER 9, 2016: The stock market continues its slow choppy move sideways to lower. With the uncertainty about the election and interest rates, this should not be too much of a surprise. But I sense that the first move in either direction will be a set up for a reversal around election time. So if the market retreats into early November, expect it to rally afterwards and vice versa. Right now, it looks like a move lower into an oversold condition before the next rally.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The internal indicators are trending lower and getting close to the buy range. If the election becomes tighter with a strong hint that Trump may win, then the market may have its “cover story” to go lower into an oversold condition. But most of all, the markets are generally neutral and can go in either direction with about the same degree of certainty. Therefore, it’s a time to do nothing!