Fear/Greed Sentiment Index September 18, 2016

September 18th, 2016 Comments off

fear-greed-sept-17While this indicator is labeled as being in the “Fear” zone, the ideal buying opportunities have occurred when the general market has been in the “Extreme Fear” zone. This suggests that the market needs more time and greater fear in order to set itself up for a better intermediate-term buying opportunity. (Source: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed)

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – SEPTEMBER 18, 2016

September 17th, 2016 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 18, 2016: The stock market has retreated and bounced around for the last few weeks. The internal indicators are near the lower range and could reach oversold readings if the market should fall in the coming days. Look for weakness early this week with the opportunity to buy near the end of the week for another run to new highs. If that scenario doesn’t set up that way, then step aside and let the market create a different kind of opportunity further down the road.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The internal indicators are neutral but within range of a bottom. While the readings have not been very severe to the downside, the length of time in this lower range suggests that a move up should be coming soon. It is based on that factor, that I’d be ready to move into action should we see weakness at the beginning of next week.

BLOGGER SENTIMENT FOR THE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 12-16, 2016

September 14th, 2016 Comments off

sept-12-16-blogger-sentimentThere has been an important shift in sentiment as the bears now outnumber the bulls 41.67% to 37.50%. This is one of the first prerequisites to forming an intermediate-term bottom. Now we need some more downside action to produce a higher degree of fear and for the internal breadth indicators to move into a deeply oversold area. That could happen as early as Friday, but more likely next week sometime. My guess is that the “Brexit Bottom” will hold and even serve as the most extreme lower boundary for any spike down in price.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – SEPTEMBER 5, 2016

September 5th, 2016 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 5, 2016: The stock market reached a short-term low intraday on Wednesday. Since that time, the internal oscillators have been trending up. This has been a sideways correction with the Dow remaining in a 300-point trading range for 38 straight trading days. Another new closing high in the coming week is certainly possible. But overall, the market did not become oversold enough or create enough of a sentiment shift to fuel the market towards a big move upwards.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The internal indicators are all trending up after last Wednesday’s bottom. That gives the general market time to rally more and reach new high ground. But since the market did not become deeply oversold, I would be careful about being either long or short with any significant positions. A better risk/reward opportunity should present itself in the coming months which historically has been volatile. Keep your powder dry instead.

BLOGGER SENTIMENT FOR THE WEEK OF AUGUST 29-SEPTEMBER 2, 2016

August 30th, 2016 Comments off

Blogger Sept 2This sentiment indicator shows Bullish Sentiment at 45.83% and Non-Bullish Sentiment (Bearish + Neutral) at 54.17%. With this largely even spread between the bullish and non-bullish market stances among stock market bloggers, the general market can be deemed as “neutral” overall. That means that the market can go in either direction without bias. (Source: Ticker Sense)

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – AUGUST 24, 2016

August 25th, 2016 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR AUGUST 24, 2016: The stock market’s drop today has sent the breadth oscillators downwards towards a possible oversold condition by the beginning of next week. At this point, the market may begin to show more weakness and finally give us a clear pattern from which to trade from. So keep your powder dry and be ready to take positions in case an oversold scenario starts to take shape.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The internal indicators show that the market is finally trending downwards in unison. With today’s action, we have a pattern that may lead to a buying opportunity very shortly. This will probably be a “V-shaped” bottom without any kind of retest so be ready to take action on weakness in a few days. It may even be a spike down towards a key 200-day moving average which chartists will point to as being the pivot point. So be ready for a short-term trade on the long-side if the market sets up that way.

BLOGGER SENTIMENT FOR THE WEEK OF AUGUST 15-19, 2016

August 17th, 2016 Comments off

Blogger Sentiment aug 15This sentiment indicator shows that the stock market is more bullish than bearish, but not as much as last week. In fact, the non-bullish elements of “neutral” and “bearish” add up to 52% of the survey. So based on the history of this indicator, the market is relatively neutral from a behavioral/sentiment perspective. This means that despite the long run-up since February 11, 2016, the market still has room to continue higher. (Source: Ticker Sense)

Put/Call Ratio Market Timing For August 15, 2016

August 16th, 2016 Comments off

Aug 16 put call ratioThe stock market appears to be at the very end of its rally since February 11, 2016. The only thing that prevents me from being downright bearish, is the possibility that the Brexit bottom may have already flushed out the weak hands and created an intermediate-term low. But most of all, this indicator makes an investor or trader aware of the risks to holding long positions in the general market at this time. Better odds for upside appreciation seems likely at another time down the road. (Source: www.optionstrategist.com)

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – AUGUST 14, 2016

August 13th, 2016 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR AUGUST 14, 2016: The stock market has reached the top of its trading once again by posting a new all-time high on Thursday. The market may back and fill for a few more days before making what I believe will be one more new high for this move. From that new high, we should see a more substantial correction in terms of price and time. That next correction will be a dip worth buying as it will likely come back to new all-time highs once again.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE:  We are in a neutral internal market, but at the top of the trading range. We can expect the market to either pause before making a new high this week or else push forward with a series of new highs on weakening strength. That should set-up a correction over the next few weeks and present a low risk buying opportunity for another ride up to new highs. So expect the market goes into a correction after a push to new highs this week that will become a buying opportunity worth betting on a few weeks from now.

Note: Another sign of a top is a key reversal on high volume where the market opens up strongly, reverses in mid-session, and then closes convincingly on the downside.

BLOGGER SENTIMENT FOR THE WEEK OF AUGUST 8-12, 2016

August 10th, 2016 Comments off

Blogger Sentiment Aug 8-12This unique sentiment indicator shows that the stock market is grossly over-loved at this time by blogger/stock market advisors. That means, an investor/trader should be very careful if they’re betting on the long side now. With market history as an indicator and the tendency of sentiment gauges being contrary indicators, the bullish party may be over soon. My experience with this indicator is that it tends to have about a one-to-two week lead time before the market reacts. In the present case, the market should top out in a week or two according to this indicator.