Wall Street Craps – 2012 Global Ebook Finance Award-Winner

STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 30, 2014: The stock market has now reached the point of exhaustion to the upside. The last two new closing Dow highs have been contained within the intraday highs that were achieved in the week before. This means that the general market should correct either sideways or to the downside in the coming week to ten days. That process has already begun in many individual stocks. But this could easily lead up to a short-term buying opportunity in mid-December for a quick ride back to the top by year’s end.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 45 (neutral)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 46 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 58 (neutral)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 58 (neutral)
• S&P 100 % Above 200 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 50 (neutral)
• Risk On/Risk Off Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 31 (neutral)
• Volatility Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 56 (neutral)

***********

Personal Note: I’m watching Equity-Only Put-Call Ratios with great interest now. With this past Friday’s 13th successive new closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we have now arrived at the optimal point of “buying” exhaustion. The top of this move may become a mirror-image of the most recent bottom – turning on a dime and never looking back. So be careful out there. In the wise words of Art Cashin, UBS Director of Floor Operations at the NYSE, “Stick with the drill: stay wary, alert and very, very nimble

***********

STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 23, 2014: The stock market is approaching a point of exhaustion to the upside. But Thursday’s “buy” signals in the NYSE and Nasdaq breadth indicators show that there is still more room to advance. I’m looking for the market to retest Friday’s intraday highs in the coming week. But more importantly, I would be ready for a mid-December buying opportunity should the market to begin its correction right here.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 40 (neutral)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 34 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 71 (overbought)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 52 (neutral)
• S&P 100 % Above 200 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 75 (overbought)
• Risk On/Risk Off Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 35 (neutral)
• Volatility Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 60 (neutral)

Personal Note: I’m watching some other medium-term indicators (Equity-Only Put-Call Ratios, Investor Sentiment, and NYSE Summation Index) with great interest now. With this past Friday’s 10th successive new closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we are historically only 2 or 3 more new highs from the point of “buying” exhaustion. The top of this move may become a mirror-image of the most recent bottom – turning on a dime and never looking back. So be careful out there. In the wise words of Art Cashin, UBS Director of Floor Operations at the NYSE, “Stick with the drill: stay wary, alert and very, very nimble

***********

My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for a near term bottom in mid-December in order to establish new long positions. Don’t get antsy and remember that the “casino is always open!”

***********

STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 17, 2014: The stock market is churning near these price levels as money is nervously flowing in and out of the market. Those who bought this last bottom may be eager to cash out after this spectacular run, while others who missed it are trying to get in. With a mixed bag of internal indicators, expect the market to remain in this holding pattern with another possible run to the upside in order to entice the public into buying at the top. Keep in mind that the next cyclical bottom is due in mid-December just in time for tax-loss selling in Big Oil stocks that influence the widely-watched DJIA.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 21 (oversold)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 33 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 76 (overbought)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 72 (overbought)
• S&P 100 % Above 200 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 73 (overbought)
• S&P Bullish Percent Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 91 (overbought)
• Risk On/Risk Off Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 46 (neutral)
• Volatility Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 45 (neutral)

Other key market gauges worth following right now include:

• Equity-Only Put-Call Ratios – topping out and headed lower towards the next bottom
• Investor Sentiment – mid-range (neutral)
• NYSE Summation Index – topping out & headed down towards it next cycle low

Personal Note: The timing of Tony Robbins’ new bestseller, Money – Master the Game may coincide with a classic top in the market. As a former trainer for Mr. Robbins, I have tremendous respect for his ability to learn and master anything that he puts his heart and mind into. I’m just saying that his publisher’s timing of this work is when the book market is ripe for this topic. Hence, the uninformed public is ready to invest in equities (low-cost Equity Index Funds) at a highly popular but less-than-optimal trading time.

***********

My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for a near term bottom in mid-December in order to establish new long positions. Don’t get antsy and remember that the “casino is always open!”

***********

STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 2, 2014: The stock market has fulfilled its “V-Shaped Bottom” with last week’s historic run to the upside. However, the new closing high on Friday is still unconfirmed by a number of major indicators. This coupled with several “overbought” readings in key underlying indicators would suggest that the upside may be limited right now. It’s probably too late to buy into this rally without experiencing some sort of sideways correction soon, but be ready to buy any dips for a resumption of this long bull market.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 71 (overbought)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 76 (overbought)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 86 (overbought)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 91 (overbought)
• S&P 100 % Above 200 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 82 (overbought)
• S&P Bullish Percent Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 83 (overbought)
• Risk On/Risk Off Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 59 (neutral)

Personal Note: A good student of the market needs to update their strategy over time in order to play the game more effectively. The reason is that the stock market game is now more volatile than ever before. The new players in the game are quicker, smarter, better equipped, more competitive, and forever looking for an “edge” in order to make money in this market.

As an individual do-it-yourself investor, the new strategy for today’s market is to make smaller bets while buying the dips and selling the rips – and thus, holding your trading positions for a shorter time. This applies to “playing” the stock market for fast money with less risk.

As far as “asset allocation” and the vehicles for “security assets” and “growth funds,” the best funds for long-term money are in the higher-yielding broad-based low-fee Exchange-Traded Funds offered by Charles Schwab and Vanguard. The annual fees charged by Exchange-Traded Funds when compounded over time can amount to significant cuts in your overall returns. This is especially true when it comes to large positions that are held for a long time – as in “Security Assets” that they are described in my book, Wall Street Craps: How to Play Today’s Hot & Cold Stock Market For Fast Money With Less Risk.

***********

My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for a dip in the near term in order to establish new long positions. Rather than a simple bounce in a topping pattern, this rally appears to me to be a new leg of a revived bull market. Otherwise, it might be less risky to simply wait for the seasonal correction during mid-December in order to establish or add to long positions. Don’t get antsy and remember that the “casino is always open!”

***********