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WALL STREET CRAPS MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR MARCH 30, 2013

March 30th, 2013 Comments off

MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR MARCH 30, 2013: The stock market hit two new rally highs this past week, despite the negative-news coming from Europe. This relentless rally still does not show any real signs of correcting downwards in price. What it has done is chew up time by moving sideways and allowing the technical features of the general market to reach equilibrium. This means that the stock market can still go in either direction over the near term.

Key market indicators show the following:

The choppy action in the market last week allowed the market to neutralize its overbought condition. The general market is up against resistance at the present level. This is one of those times in which it’s too late to buy, too risky to sell short, and probably one in which a savvy market player would be willing to “take some chips off of the table.”

My advice is to keep your powder dry in case the market has a sharp near term correction during the months of April and May. Such a scenario would set up a good buying opportunity in mid-May.

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THE APPLE BEAR MARKET OPTIMIZED MOVING AVERAGE UPDATE MARCH 30, 2013

March 30th, 2013 Comments off

THE APPLE BEAR MARKET OPTIMIZED MOVING AVERAGE UPDATE MARCH 30, 2013

As I stated on March 5th, the Money Flow, Relative Strength, and Ultimate Indicators triggered buy signals for the stock of Apple. Thus, this triple buy signal made it possible to take initial positions in this undervalued, oversold, and unpopular high-quality stock near the absolute bottom around 420. Then the stock rose to an intraday high of 469 which was just above the 50-day Optimized Moving Average at that time. But without a decisive move above this moving average, the stock fell back to its current price of 442.

(Click here for the chart for Apple)

The so-called “Apple Bear Market Optimized Moving Average” currently stands at 462, which is 20 points away. This moving average has served as the cap on three previous rallies in Apple over the past several months and appears to have put a lid on this most recent rally as well.

With the first quarter window-dressing out of the way, it is possible for Apple to challenge the Optimized Moving Average once again. If it fail to push through resistance at such an attempt or simply heads down from here, I would expect a retest of the early March lows around the 417-392 price range. A successful retest could be in store for the stock so I’d start accumulating the stock on any move close to that price area.

Note: The final phase of a market decline is often marked by investor apathy rather than by fear. Those who follow Apple may have noticed how much less talk there is on Wall Street about this stock in the last few weeks. This is a sure sign of apathy in regards to the stock of Apple.

Categories: Apple Trading Strategies Tags:

THE APPLE BEAR MARKET OPTIMIZED MOVING AVERAGE UPDATE MARCH 20, 2013

March 20th, 2013 Comments off

THE APPLE BEAR MARKET OPTIMIZED MOVING AVERAGE UPDATE MARCH 20, 2013

On March 5th, the Money Flow, Relative Strength, and Ultimate Indicators triggered buy signals for the stock of Apple. Thus, this triple buy signal made it possible to take initial positions in this undervalued, oversold, and unpopular high-quality stock near the absolute bottom around 420.

(Click here for the chart for Apple)

Since that time, the price of Apple has rallied to a current price of 452. The so-called “Apple Bear Market Optimized Moving Average” stands at 464, just 12 points away. This moving average has served as the cap on three previous rallies in Apple over the past several months. As long as the price of Apple stays under the Optimized Moving Average, it is still considered to be in a bear market phase.

If the stock does not rally through the Optimized Moving Average at this time, I would expect a retest of the early March lows around the 425-407 price range. A successful retest could be in store for the stock so I’d start accumulating the stock on any move close to that price area.

WALL STREET CRAPS MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR MARCH 17, 2013

March 16th, 2013 Comments off

MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR MARCH 17, 2013: The stock market hit consecutive new highs for 10 trading sessions. That remarkable string was broken on Friday with the market’s modest decline. While the general market is certainly overbought by many measures, it is not as over-loved as you might expect. Since investor sentiment is still largely neutral, the market may correct in the short-term and then present investors with another chance to buy for the next leg up. That appears to be a less risky approach to making money than trying to short this relentlessly bullish market.

Key market indicators show the following:

Many key breadth indicators  are showing neutral readings even after this persistent advance. If the market continues to march upwards in the coming week, it may present an opportunity to buy the Long-Term Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). This is one of the best ways to participate with less risk in a downward market as opposed to going short or buying inverse Exchange-Traded Funds.

If the market heads down next week, it may set up a short term buying opportunity for a continuation of this advancing market. So be ready to move in either direction as the market reveals its next opportunity for traders and investors.

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APPLE (AAPL) TRADING & INVESTING UPDATE FOR MARCH 9, 2013

March 9th, 2013 Comments off

THE APPLE BEAR MARKET OPTIMIZED MOVING AVERAGE UPDATE MARCH 9, 2013

The Money Flow Indicator hit 5.13 during this past week. Both the RSI and ULT Indicators made brief buy signals shortly afterwards. Thus, this triple buy signal made it possible to take initial positions in this undervalued, oversold, and unpopular high-quality stock. (Click here for the chart for Apple)

But the price action since this triple buy signal has been more of a “dead cat bounce.” Perhaps, the stock is not yet ready to advance. My guess is that the stock of Apple will experience a lot of selling as the end of the quarter approaches. Many money managers with large positions in the stock will not want this on their books at the end of quarter. The stock of Apple will most likely be ready to advance after this selling period is over.

On the trading side, it seems to me that the stock needs one more thrust downward in order to shake out all of the weak hands. It may take a move to the 410-400 price area in order for that to happen. It could do so intraday so a limit buy order may be required in order to capitalize on such a move.

WALL STREET CRAPS MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR MARCH 9, 2013

March 9th, 2013 Comments off

MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR MARCH 9, 2013: The stock market hit consecutive new highs during the last 6 trading sessions. This is a classic example of letting a powerful move run its course and resisting the urge to short. The upside momentum has probably peaked at this time, but after a short correction, I’d expect at least one more overshoot rally to a new closing Dow high. In order for that scenario to pan out, we first need a sharp and broad correction lasting a week to 10 days. Then one final narrow advance up to a new high which is not confirmed by breadth and other broad-based averages.

Key market indicators show the following:

With many key breadth indicators at or near sell signal levels, I would be looking for a correction to begin on Monday. This will be the first leg down with most likely a retest of Friday’s highs in one to two weeks. Since the “Wall Street Craps Method” discourages both leverage and shorting the market, the best thing to do is remain on the sidelines and let the market correct. Then look for either a short-term upside opportunity in the general market or a trade in the Long Treasury Bond ETF (TLT).

Remember that the sentiment indicators show that market participants are still neutral. This is not a sign of a major top. So a correction here would give nimble traders and investors a chance to ride this market up when the rally resumes.

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APPLE UPDATE FOR MARCH 5, 2013: BUY SIGNAL IS OFFICIALLY TRIGGERED!

March 5th, 2013 Comments off

APPLE UPDATE MARCH 5, 2013

The Money Flow Indicator hit an extreme reading of 5.13 at Monday’s close. The Relative Strength Indicator has a reading below 30 while the Ultimate Indicator is now under the critical 30 level as well. This qualifies as a triple buy signal and an optimal time period to start buying the stock after its long decline.

Tuesday March 5th could experience a sharp spike down (possibly towards 418-407) to buy into. Don’t be afraid to pull the trigger. It will be difficult to get the perfect price, but now is an optimal time. The RSI and ULT Indicators may have more room to slide on the downside, so it is still possible for lower price over the very near term. I’m just saying that now is a good time to “get your feet wet” with this stock with a chance for a good upside bounce at any moment now.

I liken the current scenario to playing Blackjack where the dealer is showing a “6” up while you are holding an “11” in your hand. You won’t necessarily win the hand, but the act of  “doubling down” is the proper way to play the hand. (If the bet is not too large for your bankroll.)

Remember, that while there is a risk in taking a stock position, there is also the risk of missing out on a good opportunity! (Click here for the chart for Apple)

Categories: Apple Trading Strategies Tags:

APPLE UPDATE FOR MARCH 2, 2013: START BUYING AAPL NOW!

March 2nd, 2013 Comments off

THE APPLE BEAR MARKET OPTIMIZED MOVING AVERAGE UPDATE MARCH 2, 2013

The Money Flow Indicator hit 13.66 with Friday’s close. This is a clear buy signal and the first chance to take a position in Apple. Both the RSI and ULT Indicators are in the low 30s which are also very close to flashing buy signals on any further weakness. Now is the time to gradually wade into this undervalued, oversold, and under-loved high-quality stock!

Note: Monday March 4th or Tuesday March 5th could experience a sharp spike down (possibly towards 420-407) to buy into. Don’t be afraid to pull the trigger. It will be difficult to get the perfect price, but now is an optimal time. Remember, there is also the risk of missing out on a good opportunity!  (Click here for the chart for Apple)

APPLE UPDATE MARCH 1, 2013 – One to Three Days Away From a Bottom?

March 1st, 2013 Comments off

THE APPLE BEAR MARKET OPTIMIZED MOVING AVERAGE UPDATE MARCH 1, 2013: I have devised a new indicator for Apple which I call the “Apple Bear Market Optimized Moving Average“. It is a 50-day exponential moving average of the price of Apple. It currently has 3 points that served as the top of small rallies since early October 2012. This will help those who want to buy the stock low but want to get out before it turns down again. As of today, the moving average is at 482 and dropping rapidly.

With today’s AAPL price of 434, the spread between the Optimal Moving Average and current price is 48 points. Until the price of AAPL breaks convincingly above the Optimal Moving Average with increased volume, expect the bear market in AAPL to continue….much to the chagrin of those who purchased the stock during the height of its popularity last year.

Until the weaker hands give up on the stock, the bear market in AAPL should continue. The first clue would be a clear oversold buy signal in the “Money Flow Indicator” which has called each of the last three rally in AAPL.

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Right now, the Money Flow Indicator is at 23.51 which is in my estimation about one to three days away from flashing a buy signal. With AAPL’s current level of investor apathy, it would not be surprising to see a bottom in the next few days. Manage your chips wisely by taking a small pilot position in AAPL when the Money Flow Indicator reads below 30.

Update March 2: The Money Flow Indicator hit 13.66 with Friday’s close. This is a clear buy signal and the first chance to take a position in Apple. Both the RSI and ULT Indicators are in the low 30s which are also very close to flashing buy signals on any further weakness. Now is the time to gradually wade into this undervalued, oversold, and under-loved high-quality stock!