STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JUNE 2, 2019: The stock market is oversold in two out of the five internal indicators. Any weakness on Monday or Tuesday should be considered a short-term buying opportunity. Expect this bottom to be a tricky one to catch (like they all are) and be prepared to buy early rather than be left back at the station. (Note: This was supposed to have been posted on Sunday night but was delayed due to a personal emergency.)
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
***********
THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market is oversold enough to begin looking to accumulated broad-based stock positions. The trickiest scenario would be for the market to open higher on Monday and force traders to buy into strength rather than weakness.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: Categories: Stock Market Strategy, invest, investing, investing tips, investments, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, tony robbins, trading advice
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MAY 13, 2019: Note: I was ready to post this after Monday’s decline. These were the readings on that day’s close after a brutal decline. But in truth, I was looking for a follow through on Tuesday morning to fade a buy into. But Tuesday opened up and I never capitalized on this minor short-term buy signal.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
***********
THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market gave us a brief buy point at the end of Monday’s close, but it would have been tricky to catch. This is another piece of evidence that short-term trading is difficult to do in today’s environment. It’s better to wade in with smaller units as opportunities present themselves. You will go crazy trying to catch the perfect time to buy and thus, it is unwise to make large bets with the expectation of a short-term turnaround.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: AAPL, invest, investing, investing tips, investments, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, tony robbins, trading advice
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR APRIL 23, 2019: The stock market hits oversold readings on Monday giving us a brief short-term buy signal. That signal proved to be a timely entry points for today’s strong rally. With the bottom being only a day ago, it is certainly possible for the market to continue its rally for several more days. This has certainly been a classic “climb the wall of worry” rally with no apparent reason to stop its climb especially with its most recent pause to refresh.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
***********
THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market registered a short term oversold bottom on Monday. While the market is hitting resistance near its old highs, the timing of yesterday’s bottom gives it lots of time to work itself higher.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: invest, investing, investing tips, investments, retirement, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading advice
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR APRIL 6, 2019: The stock market is now at the top of its trading range with all 5 internal indicators in “overbought” territory. This usually suggests that the market will fail on its first attempt to break above this current price range. But with the persistent strength of this market, it would be risky to bet on an immediate downturn. Until there are more obvious non-confirmations and/or a strong downside reversal, the Bulls will still have the upper-hand on this market.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
***********
THE BOTTOM LINE: The market appears to be setting itself up for an eventual upside breakout on the news of a trade deal with China. But could this event become the trigger for a downside reversal on high volume? That’s the question that I’d be anticipating as I view this market in the current news environment remembering the words and wisdom of the late Joseph E. Granville, “the obvious is obviously wrong.”
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: invest, investing, investing tips, investments, retirement, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading advice, trading tips
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MARCH 12, 2019: The stock market made a nice short-term bottom last Friday after a sustained move down. Although the prices didn’t go down much, the internal indicators were clearly oversold. My only hesitation was that the “Volatility Indicator” was only mid-range and I was concerned that the selling would continue for one to two more day. But I was wrong.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
***********
THE BOTTOM LINE: The market may have reached a bottom that could propel the general market to new highs. It is now primed to “climb the wall of worry” to new highs without much resistance. For those like me who missed it, there may not be a good place to reenter the market here.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: investing, investing tips, investments, retirement, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading advice, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 18, 2019: The stock market rallied from its short-term oversold readings last week to the surprise of many. To simplify things, I’ve decided to reduce the number of important indicators that I follow for swing trading in order to make clearer decisions. My experience is that too many indicators lead to more confusion and less action on a daily basis. And I’ve chosen the three indicators that are both less followed, more accurate, and more frequent in producing high-probability trading signals.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
***********
THE BOTTOM LINE: The market continues to rally in an almost “straight up” fashion. Aside from last week’s mild “oversold” reading, there hasn’t been much, if any, resistance to the advance. And in doing so, it has frustrated many chartists and technical market players. The smart thing here is to wait for the next “oversold” reading from the three key indicators above and trade lightly with the objective to “taking the money and run.” The time for taking longer term investment positions was back in December.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: investing, investing tips, investments, retirement, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading advice, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 10, 2019: The stock market showed some downside action with a turnaround near the close of Friday. Two of the internal oscillators are in “oversold” territory and may suggest that the downside pressure should subside near-term. But the other internal indicators (new choices to reflect other perspectives of the market) suggest that this is all short-term action that needs more time to set up properly for a stronger move in either direction.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
***********
THE BOTTOM LINE: The market may have hit a very short-term bottom on Friday but any major moves will require more time to set up properly. This may be a good time to step aside and let time create a better opportunity to trade.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: investing, investing tips, investments, retirement, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading advice, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 4, 2019: The stock market has continued its strong, broad-based rally from the Christmas lows by going practically straight up. But now is the time for a correction of this rally (most likely starting after the State of the Union address Tuesday) and based on the momentum, I’d expect it to be more of a sideways, stalling decline than a steep drop which serves the purpose of chewing up time. But a good buying opportunity will likely arise from the next oversold reading.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
***********
THE BOTTOM LINE: The market may be setting itself up for a decline starting after Trump gives his State of the Union speech. This correction may not amount to a lot of points to the downside, but I’d be a buyer on the next oversold bottom. I think that the December lows were an important pivot point for this market and a continuation of the Bull Market.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: Categories: Stock Market Strategy, investing tips, investments, retirement, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, Tags: investing, trading advice, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JANUARY 27, 2019: The stock market experienced a choppy week ending up about where it started. In the process, it has worked out some of its overbought condition. The internal indicators are largely neutral which suggests that the market can go in either direction with the same probability – either up towards heavy resistance or down for a 50% retracement.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
***********
THE BOTTOM LINE: It’s anyone’s guess whether the market corrects from here or rallies and then corrects. Perhaps there will be a tradable low in mid-February to take new positions on the long side. But momentum still appears strong to the upside and it’s a tough bet trying to play the downside. The December low’s extreme technical readings may have put in a solid bottom for many months.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: investing, investing tips, investments, retirement, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading advice, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JANUARY 12, 2019: The stock market continued its strong bounce from the December 26th lows. All internal indicators show “overbought” readings which suggests both strength and possible exhaustion. There doesn’t appear to be any catalyst for a decline, but it’s probably too late to ride this current trend up without a small correction to neutralize these “overbought” conditions.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
***********
TIME SYMMETRY: The market declined from December 3rd to December 26 which was a period of 23 calendar days or 16 trading days. Projecting out from the December 26th low, the upcoming time symmetry top should occur either on Thursday January 17 or Friday January 18.
THE BOTTOM LINE: The time to buy was in late December and it was a very tricky bottom indeed. It was a reminder of how difficult it is to go long after a 1000 point up day, but that would have been the preferred tactic at the time.
If I had to guess, I would anticipate a decline starting late this coming week to a closing Dow low below the January 3rd (Apple) low of 22,686.22. Then a new rally could take the market back up to the 200-day moving average around Dow 24000 or S&P 500 2700. For now, keep your powder dry for a possible entry to the long side in another few weeks.