The stock market has been on a record upswing since April when I warned about a climatic bottom as indicated by a reading of “4” in the Fear/Greed Index. Now we are at the other end of the spectrum with the anticipation of a final top. But tops are more often trickier than bottoms to predict. The last confirmed high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average was on July 23rd about 3 1/2 weeks ago. I expect a closing high next week to be unconfirmed by many key indicators to signify an important top. The key other indicator that I’m especially looking at is a lack of strength in market leaders such as Nivida and Palantir.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 30. This indicates that a bottom is very near this area, but it is unclear how long it will stay in this area or how low it can go.
Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Greed” territory with a reading of 58. This does not indicator a buying area but could go in either direction.
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The stock market is in full crash mode with back-to-back -5% moves on Thursday and Friday. This sets up a possible bottom for Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday of this coming week with an intermediate top most likely coming in May. Walter Deemer, the esteemed stock market veteran, wrote, “When it’s time to buy, you won’t want to.” And that’s how it will feel next week when the market searches for a tradable bottom below the $SPX 5000. The real question is exactly how far below $SPX 5000 does it go? Maybe 4800?
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 26. This indicates that a bottom is in this area, but it is unclear how long it will stay in this area.
Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Fear” territory with a reading of 4. It rarely gets this low and when it does it only stays in this area for a day or two. Based on this indicator alone, a tradable bottom will be at hand next week.
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The stock market has just had a sharp decline that broke through many moving averages and trend lines. But the oversold readings likely signaled a short-term bottom for a final move to All-Time Highs. If there is a new closing high in the DJIA that is not confirmed by the majority of other indicators, then we could have our final high and a classic “Dow Theory Sell Signal” or “Joe Granville Sell Everything Signal.” That final high must also coincide with an obvious “Cover Story” to bring in the “Bagholders” or final sucker buyers who will be left holding the proverbial bag.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 10. This indicates that a bottom is in this area and the next move it up.
Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Fear” territory with a reading of 34. It did reach an oversold reading last week for one day and qualifies as a “buy signal” for this indicator.
The stock market has made a dramatic recovery from its sharp decline last month. However, this could be the ideal setup for a classic Dow Theory Sell Signal. A new closing high the DJIA over 41,198.08 will not be confirmed by the NDX, DJTA, and the popular Magnificent 7, three prominent indicators. The ideal cover story is also present with the new Kennedy/Trump alliance and the Fed’s announcement of a cut in interest rates. This could all occur as early as Monday so watch the last hour of trading with the idea of taking pilot positions on the sell side if a rally comes without significant volume. Note: Be careful since Wednesday’s NVDA announcements may trigger another leg up as well.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 76. This suggests that there may be some more time left to this rally (1-2 weeks) since this indicator is still in a rising trend.
Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Neutral” territory with a reading of 53. This does not mean that it is an ideal time to short the market. In fact, this indicator is best used for finding bottoms, not tops. It did another good job of spotting this current rally.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: Categories: Stock Market Strategy, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, Stock Market Strategy, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, Tags: investing, Tags: investments, Tags: QQQ, trading, trading tips, wall street, WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JUNE 19
The stock market continues to correct for the last 15 trading sessions. This is a time match from the previous correction with the possibility that Friday marked the end of the decline. The Fear/Greed Index seems to agree that one more lower close on Monday might mark the bottom of this decline and the start of the Elliot Wave #5 to ATHs. However, the NYSE McClellan Summation Index is clustering in the overbought region and suggests the opposite – that a decline of a few weeks is due to reverse the upward trend in breadth numbers.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 81. This suggests that a decline is due to occur over the next few weeks to correct the upward trend in breadth statistics.
Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Fear” territory with a reading of 27. A close below 25 would take this widely-followed indicator into the “Extreme Fear” area that has marked the bottom of all corrections. Note: Major corrections end when this Index is below a reading of 5.
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The stock market has been continuing its relentless march upwards in terms of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Indexes. At the same time, the Advance/Decline Line, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average have not confirmed that same strength. This presents a time to be extra careful about trading the upside for too long of a time and trading the downside too early or in the wrong sectors.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 22. This clearly means that a bottom is closer than a top. This is a rare occurrence when many major indexes are making new highs.
Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Fear” territory with a reading of 42. This means that the market could head lower and reach a bottom soon. Or the market can head higher for a much longer period of time.
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MARCH 12, 2019: The stock market made a nice short-term bottom last Friday after a sustained move down. Although the prices didn’t go down much, the internal indicators were clearly oversold. My only hesitation was that the “Volatility Indicator” was only mid-range and I was concerned that the selling would continue for one to two more day. But I was wrong.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The market may have reached a bottom that could propel the general market to new highs. It is now primed to “climb the wall of worry” to new highs without much resistance. For those like me who missed it, there may not be a good place to reenter the market here.
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 18, 2019: The stock market rallied from its short-term oversold readings last week to the surprise of many. To simplify things, I’ve decided to reduce the number of important indicators that I follow for swing trading in order to make clearer decisions. My experience is that too many indicators lead to more confusion and less action on a daily basis. And I’ve chosen the three indicators that are both less followed, more accurate, and more frequent in producing high-probability trading signals.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The market continues to rally in an almost “straight up” fashion. Aside from last week’s mild “oversold” reading, there hasn’t been much, if any, resistance to the advance. And in doing so, it has frustrated many chartists and technical market players. The smart thing here is to wait for the next “oversold” reading from the three key indicators above and trade lightly with the objective to “taking the money and run.” The time for taking longer term investment positions was back in December.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: investing, investing tips, investments, retirement, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading advice, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 10, 2019: The stock market showed some downside action with a turnaround near the close of Friday. Two of the internal oscillators are in “oversold” territory and may suggest that the downside pressure should subside near-term. But the other internal indicators (new choices to reflect other perspectives of the market) suggest that this is all short-term action that needs more time to set up properly for a stronger move in either direction.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The market may have hit a very short-term bottom on Friday but any major moves will require more time to set up properly. This may be a good time to step aside and let time create a better opportunity to trade.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: investing, investing tips, investments, retirement, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading advice, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 4, 2019: The stock market has continued its strong, broad-based rally from the Christmas lows by going practically straight up. But now is the time for a correction of this rally (most likely starting after the State of the Union address Tuesday) and based on the momentum, I’d expect it to be more of a sideways, stalling decline than a steep drop which serves the purpose of chewing up time. But a good buying opportunity will likely arise from the next oversold reading.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The market may be setting itself up for a decline starting after Trump gives his State of the Union speech. This correction may not amount to a lot of points to the downside, but I’d be a buyer on the next oversold bottom. I think that the December lows were an important pivot point for this market and a continuation of the Bull Market.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: Categories: Stock Market Strategy, investing tips, investments, retirement, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, Tags: investing, trading advice, trading tips, wall street