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Posts Tagged ‘investments’

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MARCH 31, 2021

April 1st, 2021 Comments off
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The stock market bottomed in early March and has not retested that level since. Right now, all of the internal indicators are mid-range with no pressure to go in either direction. There is strength in the advance/decline line and the Dow Jones Transportation Average, while there is apparent weakness in the McClellan Summation Index. All of this suggests that a churning market with a slight bias to the upside can be reasonably expected with no sharp sustained actions in either direction.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator has been in a downtrend for several days now but without a break in the price action. Right now, the indicator is clustering with a possible move back to the upside soon. In addition, the Fear/Greed Index is in the “Neutral” territory suggesting that the market can go either way or simply continue sideways for the time being.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MARCH 7, 2021

March 6th, 2021 Comments off
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The stock market had a very volatile week leading into this weekend. The internal indicators have been hovering in the lower range suggesting one more stab to the downside before a sustainable rally can be made. Friday’s reversal may have been a one-day wonder which shows how difficult it is to trade the short side of the market. My guess is that the smarter way to play this market is to buy for a good bounce off of the 200 moving average of a major index or key stock like TSLA or Apple. That could happen as early as Monday-Wednesday next week so be ready.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator has been trending down for a couple of weeks now. It is also starting to separate dots to the downside which has proven to be an indication of momentum to the downside. Solid bottoms have historically occurred when the dots cluster at a low point and this is not the case now. This suggests that any move up from here would be just a bounce and not the start of a sustained uptrend.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FEBRUARY 20, 2021

February 21st, 2021 Comments off
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The stock market has been hovering near its all-time highs for all of this week. Friday’s action saw a strong advance/decline line and Dow Jones Transportation Index which suggests that there is still strength in the general stock market. At the same time, many stocks appear to have run out of gas and a decline into the end of February looks like a strong possibility. With the recent oversold readings in the McClellan Oscillators, a short term rally could easy materialize during next week.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator is starting to turn down after the most recent rally. With a cluster and turn down, the next thing that this indicator typically does is start to separate to the downside with greater losses ahead. We shall see in this difficult market to read.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 25, 2020

December 25th, 2020 Comments off
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 25, 2020: The stock market has been hovering in the same range for several weeks now while digesting its substantial post-election gains. With many of the internal indicators near oversold readings, any short burst to the downside would produce a short-term buy signal worth taking a risk. It seems that the “Buy the Dip” strategy will continue to work into the future until it doesn’t.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator just broke below its 15-day moving average after “clustering” for several days near its high. This is a classic pattern for an intermediate term top. This would make a prudent swing trader or investor very careful at this time.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 15, 2020

November 16th, 2020 Comments off
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 14, 2020: The stock market rallied strongly Post-Election last week with shorts getting squeezed and a radical rotation into low-performing basic industry stocks. But what happens from here is anyone’s guess. One thing seems certain: high volatility can be expected in these next couple of months and with that come trading opportunities for disciplined, clear-thinking swing traders.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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Short-Term Swing Trading Strategy: The market may be heading towards a 27-day cycle high for Wednesday November 18th. The next low would then be projected to Wednesday December 9th which is a 27-day cycle low. If the technicals match up well with this scenario, I’d be looking to make some trading moves to match the rhythm of the market.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY OCTOBER 29, 2020

October 29th, 2020 Comments off
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR OCTOBER 29, 2020: The stock market is in a clear correction and set up right now as we head into the November election. The internal indicators are mostly oversold or quickly approaching those levels. My guess is that a bounce is coming either today or tomorrow. But the real question will be: what will the market do after Election Day? I answer I expect: It will do the opposite of what it did in the days before.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator remains below its 15-day moving average and is expanding to the downside. Because of this indicator, a trader/swing trader should be very careful about waging too much capital on a long-side bet too early.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY SEPTEMBER 7, 2020

September 6th, 2020 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 7, 2020: The stock market had a fresh break to the downside this past week. Could this be the long-awaited correction that will take us into October? Or will this simply be a “dip” to buy for another rally to new all-time highs. The NYSE McClellan Summation Index reading tells us to be very careful here – things can change quickly in this environment.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator remains below its 15-day moving average with a chance of expanding to the downside. Because of this indicator, a trader/swing trader should be very careful about waging too much capital on a long-side bet.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY AUGUST 22, 2020

August 22nd, 2020 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR AUGUST 22, 2020: The stock market is hovering near its all-time highs in many indices. But the real strength has been in large tech companies like Apple, Google and Amazon. I suspect there will be one more rally coming soon since some indicators are showing “oversold” reading today.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator broke below its 15-day moving average on Friday which has been an early sell signal in the past.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JULY 12, 2020

July 12th, 2020 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JULY 12, 2020: The stock market is near the top of its trading range. After a large gap down last month, the market has held its own for a few weeks now. The question is whether the market will fill that gap soon or head down from here. In any case, it does not appear that a new All-Time High is likely or if it does reach a new high – that will mark the end of the rally since March 23rd.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market’s internal indicators are reading “neutral.” This means that it could go either way from here. The move that I think may happen is a new closing high to fill the June gap, but that high marking the top of this move since March 23rd.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JUNE 16, 2020

June 17th, 2020 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JUNE 16, 2020: The stock market made a sharp move downwards on last Thursday and has recovered much of that decline over the last 3 trading days. This sets up the possibility of a Classic Dow Theory and Granville Non-Confirmation sell signal on the next closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This new unconfirmed high could mark the end of this powerul rally since the March 26th bottom.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market is setting itself up for a possible sell signal on the next closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That new high would be unconfirmed by the majority of other indicators and particularly the Dow Jones Transportation Average which would need to rally substantially in the next few days. Note: The next closing high may even have one or two additional days to the upside with each day being progressively weaker and more selective.