MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR December 29, 2013: The stock market rallied to 6 consecutive new highs before its slight drop on Friday. This certainly qualifies as confirmed strength but also a possible sign of an internal top. I would expect the strength to continue for a few more days with a good chance of a correction starting at the beginning of the New Year. This market is now overbought, over-loved, and overextended as the indicators below are signaling. This isn’t a time for buying, it’s a time for selling.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
My advice for traders and investors is to remain of the sidelines and let the market set itself up for the next major move. The current list of oversold Blue Chips stocks and Exchange-Trade Funds that are near the lower range of their Money Flow Indicator and could be bought on further weakness include: Ford, TLT & FXI. This short list is another indication that very few issues are in good buying ranges. I noticed that bellwether stock, Apple, may have made a final double top on “obvious good news” marking the end of its rally.
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MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR December 22, 2013: The stock market rallied right from the start of last week and didn’t give traders a chance to buy into any weakness. As of Friday December 20th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has hit 3 consecutive new closing highs. The first week of 2014 may turn out to be a top of some significance, so traders and investor beware! But until we get a key interday reversal to the downside and a weak retest of the highs, my bet is on the market to continue higher.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
For now, my advice for traders and investors is to remain of the sidelines and let the market set itself up for the next major move. Oversold Blue Chips stocks and Exchange-Trade Funds that are near the lower range of their Money Flow Indicator and could be bought on weakness include: Starbucks, Microsoft, Verizon, Japan iShares, and China iShares.
MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR December 14, 2013: The stock market declined this past week after its failed attempt at a new high following the previous Friday’s strong rally. This sets the market up for a short-term bottom this coming week. My best guess is that this bottom will come between Tuesday and Thursday. I would suggest buying into weakness on any of these days with small pilot positions in anticipation of a year-end rally. In order to do this, you’ll have to ignore any bad news.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
For now, my advice for traders and investors is to remain of the sidelines and watch for a short term buying opportunity in the coming week. This bottom would set up the traditional “Santa Claus Rally” into the New Year. Oversold stocks would include IBM, Verizon, AT&T, and Newmont Mining.
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MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR December 7, 2013: The stock market had a mild 5-day correction after hitting its 13th consecutive new high in the DJIA. Yesterday (Friday Dec. 6th), the market snapped back with a rally that puts it into position to retest the previous week’s highs. That retest will occur early next week and could produce a new closing high. My hunch is that this retest will fail and clear the way to a more substantial correction shortly afterwards.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
For now, my advice for traders and investors is to remain of the sidelines and watch for short term buying opportunities in alternative oversold asset classes. Those would include real estate (IYR), long-term Treasury bonds (TLT), emerging markets (EEM), silver (SLV), and gold mining (GDX). Other stocks that could experience tax-loss selling in December and may be worth picking up for longer-term holdings include: IBM, CSCO, and AT&T.