The stock market has been continuing its relentless march upwards in terms of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Indexes. At the same time, the Advance/Decline Line, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average have not confirmed that same strength. This presents a time to be extra careful about trading the upside for too long of a time and trading the downside too early or in the wrong sectors.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 22. This clearly means that a bottom is closer than a top. This is a rare occurrence when many major indexes are making new highs.
Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Fear” territory with a reading of 42. This means that the market could head lower and reach a bottom soon. Or the market can head higher for a much longer period of time.
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The stock market appears to have reached a short-term “external top” with the reversal on Thursday after the Nvidia earnings report. In order to receive a “sell signal,” I would anticipate a new closing high or two with non-confirmations across the board. That is setting up for within the next 5-10 trading days. However, if the market continues to climb with strengthen, then Wednesday’s external top analysis would be invalidated.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 64. This indicator has topped out and is trending down at the moment. This often times indicates that the market is heading down or staying flat.
Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Neutral” territory with a reading of 53. New long positions should be considered if this indicator can get below a reading of 25. That will take a little bit of time to create.
The stock market has been correcting for the last week with many of the short-term indicator within striking distance of oversold readings. Investors and traders should be very careful in this time period as deep oversold readings often occur during the September-October time period. This week should be interesting with Apple’s earnings, new iPhone and China news affecting this bellwether stock.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 26. It has been in the oversold range for some time now and just recently started to decline once again.
Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Neutral” territory with a reading of 51. The next solid upside trading opportunity doesn’t appear unless this trusty indicator hits a reading of 25 or less (Extreme Fear).
The stock market has been correcting for the past few weeks since the end of July/early August. The technology sector has taken a harder hit than the rest of the market. The internal indicators show that the market can go in either direction, but the NYSE McClellan Summation Index suggests that the decline has more time to go. But price-wise, the SPX 55-Day Moving Average is getting close and provides support to the market for bounce. But it is unusual for a market to reach an intermediate hit and an intermediate bottom in the same month.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 45. This indicator has been trending lower for 10 trading days now. It is approaching an oversold reading which says that a tradable bottom is approaching. This is one of the most reliable intermediate-term trading indicators and gives you plenty of time to prepare.
Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Greed” territory with a reading of 67. The next solid upside trading opportunity doesn’t appear unless this trusty indicator hits a reading of 25 or less (Extreme Fear).
