Posts Tagged ‘Dow Theory’


December 31st, 2023 Comments off
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The stock market has been on a relentless advance that has destroyed the Bears and is pushing to new all-time highs. This euphoria could continue longer than most expect, but lead to a sharp correction in the next week or two. It’s probably too late to buy and too early to sell. I’d expect a new closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average that is unconfirmed by the majority of other indicators and indexes to be the time for the market to turn down. Expect the first 10 days of January to be very tricky to trade in either direction.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:


NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This index’s oscillator has a current reading of 97. It has been in a strong uptrend since it bottomed in late October. The first clue of a decline is now showing up with a “cluster” of postings near its peak. Time wise, the market has gone up long enough without a correction by historical standards.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Extreme Greed” territory with a reading of 76. This indicator suggests that it is not the time to go long and time to lighten up on long positions.