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WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JULY 24, 2021

July 24th, 2021 Comments off
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The stock market spiked down on Monday and then rallied strongly the remaining 4 days of the week. I was looking for a trade set-up on Tuesday morning, the market did not present an opportunity to “fade” the trade . This has happened often in the past and it is often wisest to buy during the last half hour of trading instead of letting the futures market change course and ruin your trading plans. I missed a good trading opportunity by trying to be too perfect in a tricky market. In this case, it’s more important to determine a gradual betting strategy than trying to time a “hot and cold” market too closely.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Fear” territory with a reading of 32 after being in the “Extreme Fear” zone with a reading of 17 on Monday. So this indicator did flash a clear buy signal of Monday which I saw but didn’t act on.

Note: Friday July 23rd’s, new closing high in the Dow Jone Industrial Average was not confirmed by the Dow Jones Transportation Average. This sets up a classic Dow Theory Sell Signal. Mark this date as a possible intermediate term top.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MAY 2, 2021

May 1st, 2021 Comments off
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The stock market bottomed in early March and has not retested that level since. Right now, all of the internal indicators are mid-range with no pressure to go in either direction. With recent new all-time highs, a correction can be expected especially with earning season having already passed. If a correction starts now, it could be finished by the end of the week or the beginning of next week at the earliest. Then one could expect another run to higher highs in all the major indices.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This indicator ticked lower on Friday and could suggest the beginning of a downtrend. Overall, this indicator has held up well for the market.

Fear/Greed Index: This popular indicator is in the “Greed” territory which suggests that a bottom won’t materialize until it at least touches the “Extreme Fear” reading. That would take 5 to 7 trading days at the very least.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FEBRUARY 20, 2021

February 21st, 2021 Comments off
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The stock market has been hovering near its all-time highs for all of this week. Friday’s action saw a strong advance/decline line and Dow Jones Transportation Index which suggests that there is still strength in the general stock market. At the same time, many stocks appear to have run out of gas and a decline into the end of February looks like a strong possibility. With the recent oversold readings in the McClellan Oscillators, a short term rally could easy materialize during next week.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator is starting to turn down after the most recent rally. With a cluster and turn down, the next thing that this indicator typically does is start to separate to the downside with greater losses ahead. We shall see in this difficult market to read.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY SEPTEMBER 7, 2020

September 6th, 2020 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 7, 2020: The stock market had a fresh break to the downside this past week. Could this be the long-awaited correction that will take us into October? Or will this simply be a “dip” to buy for another rally to new all-time highs. The NYSE McClellan Summation Index reading tells us to be very careful here – things can change quickly in this environment.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator remains below its 15-day moving average with a chance of expanding to the downside. Because of this indicator, a trader/swing trader should be very careful about waging too much capital on a long-side bet.