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WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JULY 23, 2018

July 22nd, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JULY 23, 2018: The stock market has been hovering in a trading range for several weeks now. This choppy action presents only short-term trading opportunities. But rallies from oversold conditions have been producing profitable moves for nimble traders. With that in mind, I have selected what I consider as the four more reliable technical indicators when used together for short-term trading. This change is designed to make decisions easier to make with the understanding that only small & short-term trading positions are being maintained.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The market appears to be at a short-term top and it is time to step aside for now. Another short-term upside set-up will take at least another week to develop.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JULY 14, 2018

July 14th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JULY 14, 2018:  The market presented a tricky, short-term trading opportunity on July 3rd. It came from a semi-oversold condition which suggests that the rally will not be strong. So far, it appears as if the market can still go in either direction with the same degree of certainty. This is a time to be on the sidelines waiting for the next opportunity to set up. The Volatility Indicator will have to traverse across its oscillator from “overbought” to “oversold” which will probably take over a week to happen.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 47 or “neutral.” I’m still awaiting for a quick move into the “Extremely Fear” area in order to feel like the conditions are ripe for a more sustainable rally. So, we continue to wait for a better trading opportunity to the upside.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JUNE 17, 2018

June 17th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JUNE 17, 2018Some internal indicators of the stock market are showing “oversold” readings, while others are trending down. This suggests that a short-term bottom could be setting up for later this week. I see this as a quick trading opportunity and may likely come with more bad news on the “trade war” front. The “Volatility Indicator” would have to reach oversold levels before I’d make that move with my trading account.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 61 or “Greed.” This is largely a neutral reading and doesn’t suggest any direction for the stock market at this time. Any moves are likely to be short-term in nature. An intermediate top or bottom does not seem likely in the coming weeks.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MAY 19, 2018

May 20th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MAY 19, 2018: The internal indicators of the stock market have been trending down the last few days, chewing up time, and possibly setting itself up for another trading bottom as early as late next week. Another plausible scenario is for next week to produce a bounce with a more stable bottom about two weeks out. In any event, there is nothing to do but wait for the next set-up and that can only happen with a bout of bad news.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 52 or “Neutral.” This doesn’t really tell you anything except that it has probably seen the worst in terms of extreme negative sentiment. One more quick trip to the “Extreme Fear” area will probably be all that it takes for another tradable intermediate term bottom.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY APRIL 28, 2018

April 28th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR APRIL 28, 2018: The stock market may be setting itself up for an intermediate-term bottom next week. The internal breadth indicators below are all close to oversold readings and additional weakness is sure to trigger buy signals. If a decline next week starts to materialize, then look at it as an opportunity to go long and ignore the “bad news” that has to happen in order to create the public selling. The trick will be if this happens mostly on Friday when it will take more guts to make trading commitments over an uncertain weekend.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 40 or “Fear.” This reading is after it has been in the “Extreme Fear” range for many weeks. I would expect a brief one or two day return to the “Extreme Fear” zone to coincide with a new intermediate buy signal on any weakness next week. If so, this “correction” will have scared enough weak hands out of the long game with only strong hands left to ride the next rally up. Of course, if we rally straight up from here then this scenario goes out the window and the deck will be “shuffled” once again.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MARCH 10, 2018

March 10th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MARCH 10, 2018: The stock market is currently “overbought” in most of the internal indicators. Therefore, the market can hit a short-term top at any time. This has been a very tricky market to trade precisely, since the swings have been so punishing over the short-term when being too early with large bets. The market still has room to rally to the upside. As far as taking new long positions, the time for that was either last week or early February. Now is a time to watch and wait for the next “oversold” set-up.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 44 or “Fear.” This is the first move out of the “Extreme Fear” area in several weeks. As far as sentiment goes, we had our chance over the past month to take long positions on weakness. The thing to do now, is wait for a short-term oversold condition in two the McClellan Oscillators (the most reliable short-term indicators) in order to take new positions for another trip into new high territory.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FEBRUARY 5, 2018

February 5th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 5, 2018: The stock market is currently “oversold” in all of the internal indicators. Therefore, the market can hit a short-term bottom as early as Tuesday. And over the past several years, the market has rebounded from similar bottoms without retesting. But what is different now is how far and long the market has advanced in the post-election period. If you want to play for a fast money trade, I’d expect a rally to come in the next 5 trading sessions and likely coincide with a bounce off of the 200-day moving average in the S&P 500.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 40 or “Greed.” I would expect the next short-term bottom to occur when this indicator is below a reading of 25 in “Extreme Fear” territory. That could happen in the next few days and be worth the risk for a quick ride up to the old highs. My favorite trading vehicle because of its diversification and low-correlation to interest rates would be the QQQ Exchange Traded Fund in the area of 148-150.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JANUARY 15, 2018

January 16th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JANUARY 15, 2018: Despite the stock market’s historic and relentless rally, it still remains relatively “neutral” in its internal technical position. Only one out of the five that I follow is in the “overbought” area with the reliable “Volatility Indicator” in close range of a buy signal. While this is not an optimal time to “buy low and sell high,” it is most likely a time when there is a rotation of strength and a pause in the advance. I’d still be looking for another short-term oversold condition to create a new buying opportunity to the upside.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Extreme Greed.” This means that it is not a time to buy and one that you consider selling. I’d be looking for some short-term “bad news” to create a short, sharp drop that will present yet another buying opportunity to the upside. Despite the duration and extent of this rally, it still makes more sense to expect the market to go than go down over the short-to-intermediate term. Trying to guess tops is simply too hard to do with a measure of accuracy when you have a market of this nature.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY DECEMBER 3, 2017

December 3rd, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 3, 2017: Despite stock market’s historic run-up, it still may have more time to rally. Friday’s 300-point drop may have purged a lot of negativity and weak hands out of the market. The internal indicators are coming off of overbought readings and may be setting itself up for another rally after a brief drop into the traditional December 12-18 time slot. It’s more than likely that any correction of any significance will occur after the New Year.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Greed” after only one day being in the “Fear” territory. I’d still be looking to go long on any new oversold condition between December 12-18. Consider choppy action as a time to create such an oversold condition and a chance to once again ride up to new all-time highs.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 12, 2017

November 12th, 2017 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 12, 2017: The stock market has experienced a short correction in its rally since the August bottom. The internal indicators are slightly oversold and can support a continuation of the rally with the aid of any good news. But ideally, if the market continues to correct, it will set up a better buying opportunity around Thanksgiving or in the seasonal bottoming time around mid-December. For now, it looks like a good time to wait for a better entry point for a ride up into the New Year.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading “Neutral” after a long stay in the both the “Greed” and “Extreme Greed” territory. But a quick move lower into the “Extreme Fear” would probably present a good buying opportunity. I’m inclined to wait for such a time especially when that reading coincides with oversold readings in the internal indicators above. So for now, it’s a time for patience.