Wall Street Craps – 2012 Global Ebook Finance Award-Winner

STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 30, 2014: The stock market has now reached the point of exhaustion to the upside. The last two new closing Dow highs have been contained within the intraday highs that were achieved in the week before. This means that the general market should correct either sideways or to the downside in the coming week to ten days. That process has already begun in many individual stocks. But this could easily lead up to a short-term buying opportunity in mid-December for a quick ride back to the top by year’s end.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 45 (neutral)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 46 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 58 (neutral)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 58 (neutral)
• S&P 100 % Above 200 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 50 (neutral)
• Risk On/Risk Off Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 31 (neutral)
• Volatility Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 56 (neutral)

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Personal Note: I’m watching Equity-Only Put-Call Ratios with great interest now. With this past Friday’s 13th successive new closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we have now arrived at the optimal point of “buying” exhaustion. The top of this move may become a mirror-image of the most recent bottom – turning on a dime and never looking back. So be careful out there. In the wise words of Art Cashin, UBS Director of Floor Operations at the NYSE, “Stick with the drill: stay wary, alert and very, very nimble

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 23, 2014: The stock market is approaching a point of exhaustion to the upside. But Thursday’s “buy” signals in the NYSE and Nasdaq breadth indicators show that there is still more room to advance. I’m looking for the market to retest Friday’s intraday highs in the coming week. But more importantly, I would be ready for a mid-December buying opportunity should the market to begin its correction right here.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 40 (neutral)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 34 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 71 (overbought)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 52 (neutral)
• S&P 100 % Above 200 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 75 (overbought)
• Risk On/Risk Off Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 35 (neutral)
• Volatility Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 60 (neutral)

Personal Note: I’m watching some other medium-term indicators (Equity-Only Put-Call Ratios, Investor Sentiment, and NYSE Summation Index) with great interest now. With this past Friday’s 10th successive new closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we are historically only 2 or 3 more new highs from the point of “buying” exhaustion. The top of this move may become a mirror-image of the most recent bottom – turning on a dime and never looking back. So be careful out there. In the wise words of Art Cashin, UBS Director of Floor Operations at the NYSE, “Stick with the drill: stay wary, alert and very, very nimble

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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for a near term bottom in mid-December in order to establish new long positions. Don’t get antsy and remember that the “casino is always open!”

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 17, 2014: The stock market is churning near these price levels as money is nervously flowing in and out of the market. Those who bought this last bottom may be eager to cash out after this spectacular run, while others who missed it are trying to get in. With a mixed bag of internal indicators, expect the market to remain in this holding pattern with another possible run to the upside in order to entice the public into buying at the top. Keep in mind that the next cyclical bottom is due in mid-December just in time for tax-loss selling in Big Oil stocks that influence the widely-watched DJIA.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 21 (oversold)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 33 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 76 (overbought)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 72 (overbought)
• S&P 100 % Above 200 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 73 (overbought)
• S&P Bullish Percent Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 91 (overbought)
• Risk On/Risk Off Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 46 (neutral)
• Volatility Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 45 (neutral)

Other key market gauges worth following right now include:

• Equity-Only Put-Call Ratios – topping out and headed lower towards the next bottom
• Investor Sentiment – mid-range (neutral)
• NYSE Summation Index – topping out & headed down towards it next cycle low

Personal Note: The timing of Tony Robbins’ new bestseller, Money – Master the Game may coincide with a classic top in the market. As a former trainer for Mr. Robbins, I have tremendous respect for his ability to learn and master anything that he puts his heart and mind into. I’m just saying that his publisher’s timing of this work is when the book market is ripe for this topic. Hence, the uninformed public is ready to invest in equities (low-cost Equity Index Funds) at a highly popular but less-than-optimal trading time.

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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for a near term bottom in mid-December in order to establish new long positions. Don’t get antsy and remember that the “casino is always open!”

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 2, 2014: The stock market has fulfilled its “V-Shaped Bottom” with last week’s historic run to the upside. However, the new closing high on Friday is still unconfirmed by a number of major indicators. This coupled with several “overbought” readings in key underlying indicators would suggest that the upside may be limited right now. It’s probably too late to buy into this rally without experiencing some sort of sideways correction soon, but be ready to buy any dips for a resumption of this long bull market.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 71 (overbought)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 76 (overbought)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 86 (overbought)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 91 (overbought)
• S&P 100 % Above 200 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 82 (overbought)
• S&P Bullish Percent Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 83 (overbought)
• Risk On/Risk Off Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 59 (neutral)

Personal Note: A good student of the market needs to update their strategy over time in order to play the game more effectively. The reason is that the stock market game is now more volatile than ever before. The new players in the game are quicker, smarter, better equipped, more competitive, and forever looking for an “edge” in order to make money in this market.

As an individual do-it-yourself investor, the new strategy for today’s market is to make smaller bets while buying the dips and selling the rips – and thus, holding your trading positions for a shorter time. This applies to “playing” the stock market for fast money with less risk.

As far as “asset allocation” and the vehicles for “security assets” and “growth funds,” the best funds for long-term money are in the higher-yielding broad-based low-fee Exchange-Traded Funds offered by Charles Schwab and Vanguard. The annual fees charged by Exchange-Traded Funds when compounded over time can amount to significant cuts in your overall returns. This is especially true when it comes to large positions that are held for a long time – as in “Security Assets” that they are described in my book, Wall Street Craps: How to Play Today’s Hot & Cold Stock Market For Fast Money With Less Risk.

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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for a dip in the near term in order to establish new long positions. Rather than a simple bounce in a topping pattern, this rally appears to me to be a new leg of a revived bull market. Otherwise, it might be less risky to simply wait for the seasonal correction during mid-December in order to establish or add to long positions. Don’t get antsy and remember that the “casino is always open!”

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR October 19, 2014: The stock market experienced a sharp decline and a possible capitulation on Wednesday of last week. Will this turn out to be another “V-Shaped Bottom” or just a bounce? That’s a big question that no one really knows the answer to and can only speculate. With the majority of indicators below showing “neutral” readings by the close of Friday, the stock market is in a position of going in either direction.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 57 (neutral)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 59 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 37 (neutral)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 39 (neutral)
• S&P 100 % Above 200 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 19 (oversold)
• Risk On/Risk Off Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 59 (neutral)

Personal Note: I expected the NYSE Breadth Oscillator and Nasdaq Breadth Oscillators to have reached “oversold” readings during this last decline, but they never got close in terms of their respective Ultimate Oscillators. So my bet is on the market to retest last Wednesday’s bottom in the coming week after a sharp decline on Monday and Tuesday. If that decline looks like it’s going to be a successful retest, I’d be willing to put a few small “place bets” on some broad-based ETFs while trying to catch that proverbial “falling knife.”

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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for a retest of last Wednesday’s intraday low. If that retest comes with glaring technical divergences and “obvious bad news”, we could experience a sharp rally worth trading in broad-based Exchange-Traded Funds like DIA, QQQ, IWM, SPY, and maybe even SSO.

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR September 14, 2014: The stock market experienced a mild correction that has put it in a slightly oversold condition. With a little more downside, it could set up a short-term rally to challenge the old highs. In the meantime, interest rates have increased to provide the backdrop for a more significant decline in the coming weeks. I’d expect one final narrow-based rally within reach of the old highs before the stock market makes a steep decline into October-November.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 26 (oversold)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 38 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 28 (oversold)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 50 (neutral)
• S&P 100 % Above 200 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 30 (neutral)
• S&P Bullish Percent Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 34 (neutral)

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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for one last rally in order to move completely to the sidelines. The stock market has experienced a long rally for the majority of 2014 and now is the time to prepare for a meaningful correction both in extent and duration.

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR August 2, 2014: The stock market experienced a broad correction last week that took most oscillators to deep “oversold” readings. We could be just one day away from a good bounce right here. But at the same time, there is the danger of going into a “flash crash” sometime in the next couple of weeks. While a small amount can be risked for a sharp short-term bounce, I am more inclined to let the market run its course to the downside with a better bounce off the 200-day moving averages of the major indices. That would require 200 more points to the downside in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 15 (oversold)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 32 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 9 (oversold)
• NYSE % Above 150 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 9 (oversold)
• S&P Bullish Percent Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 62 (neutral)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 20 (oversold)

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My advice for traders and investors is be on the lookout for a “flash crash” scenario in the next couple of weeks. We may get a golden opportunity to buy soon if you’re out of the market now and in cash. But the market could experience sharp swings in either direction. My guess is that August 2014 will be the month of an important trading bottom.

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR July 28, 2014: The stock market made another attempt at the old highs during this past week. In doing so, it pushes most of the internal breadth indicators to “neutral” readings. With a lot of negative news from geopolitical sources, the market could easily decline into a short-term oversold condition in the coming week. The kind of action that we are seeing now is typical of the topping process. My guess is that we will either get a short-term buy signal on more bad news or else make another push to new highs. But be careful here because the next closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average may, in fact, be the last one of this rally.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 48 (neutral)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 50 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 36 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 150 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 34 (neutral)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 37 (neutral)
• Risk On/Risk Off Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 32 (neutral)

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My advice for traders and investors is do nothing and let the market set itself up for its next big move. More downside here would permit the oscillators to become more oversold and present a short-term buying opportunity. When the bad news lets up from the geopolitical problems, there could be a sharp but short rally to new highs. If you’re looking to sell, do so on a less-than-strong closing high in the DJIA in the last hour.

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR July 20, 2014: The stock market reached short-term oversold conditions on “obvious bad news” Thursday. A bounce on Friday has put most internal indicators in “neutral” positions. With the old highs less than 100 points away, it is certainly possible for the market to continue its march upwards to new highs. So with prices near their highs and breadth oscillators near their lows, it allows for room to travel in either direction.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 45 (neutral)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 44 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 35 (neutral)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 34 (neutral)
• Risk On/Risk Off Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 31 (neutral)

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My advice for traders and investors is do nothing and let the market set itself up for its next big move. More downside here would permit the oscillators to become more oversold and present a short-term buying opportunity. Despite the length of this rally, it still could have even more to go on the upside.

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR July 12, 2014: The stock market sold off after the most recent high that was posted just prior to the July 4th holiday. This selloff has moved all four of the key breadth oscillators to “oversold” readings. This indicates that the correction is over and that a short-term retest of the recent highs is in order. We’ll be looking for confirmation or non-confirmation of the retest in order to determine if this next rally will be the last one for this phase of the market. The Equity-Only Put/Call Ratio is also very close to issuing a “sell signal” after a long gradual decline into that reading. All of this adds up to a tricky retest of the old highs with a possible top in mid-July of major importance.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 25 (oversold)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 26 (oversold)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 16 (oversold)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 28 (oversold)
• Risk On/Risk Off Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 29 (oversold)

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My advice for traders and investors is expect a short-term rally up to the old highs that were registered on July 3rd. Some may want to play the upside here for a quick move up. But long-term funds should be held back just in case the retest of the old highs fails and a top of major importance is made in mid-July. This is next rally may be the time to exit most, if not all, of your equity positions.

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