STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 10, 2018: The stock market made a huge upside move in response to the election results on Wednesday. The question is whether that move signified a breakout to a new highs or a last grasp top for the latest bounce. Since this is anyone’s guess, the next entry point would likely be an oversold condition in the majority of breadth indicators. But a strong move down from here and a resumption of October’s down move would certainly change the character of the market again. This is a time for caution, as well as a time for opportunity for those willing to accept the risks and stomach the volatility.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 18 or “Extreme Fear.” While this is still in the “Extreme Fear” category, it is far off of the lows from the previous two weeks. This might suggest that the market is simply retracing its strong move up with a chance of forming another pivot bottom in about 5-10 trading days. So be alert and ready to act on a brief buying opportunity ahead.
STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR August 2, 2014: The stock market experienced a broad correction last week that took most oscillators to deep “oversold” readings. We could be just one day away from a good bounce right here. But at the same time, there is the danger of going into a “flash crash” sometime in the next couple of weeks. While a small amount can be risked for a sharp short-term bounce, I am more inclined to let the market run its course to the downside with a better bounce off the 200-day moving averages of the major indices. That would require 200 more points to the downside in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
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My advice for traders and investors is be on the lookout for a “flash crash” scenario in the next couple of weeks. We may get a golden opportunity to buy soon if you’re out of the market now and in cash. But the market could experience sharp swings in either direction. My guess is that August 2014 will be the month of an important trading bottom.
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Categories: Stock Market Strategy Tags: investing, investments, stock action, stock investing, stock market, stock market trading tips, stock timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, trading, trading tips, wall street
THE APPLE BEAR MARKET OPTIMIZED MOVING AVERAGE UPDATE FEBRUARY 4, 2013:I have devised a new indicator for Apple which I call the “Apple Bear Market Optimized Moving Average“. It is a 50-day exponential moving average of the price of Apple. It currently has 3 points that served as the top of small rallies since early October 2012. This will help those who want to buy the stock low but want to get out before it turns down again. As of today, the moving average is at 517 and dropping rapidly.
With so many traders, investors, and institutions having paper losses in this popular stock, it appears that the one thing that people don’t expect is a bear market in this issue. Almost all of the fundamental projections for the stock are in the 700-800 price range. Until these weak hands get scared out of the stock, my technical and behavioral indicators point to lower prices.
Some key Apple indicators show the following:
- Relative Strength Indicator: “34” reading and not far from a buy signal under 30
- Ultimate Indicator: “31” reading and close to a buy signal under 30
- Money Flow Indicator: “43” reading which is far from being a buy signal under 20 (Note: This indicator has been the most timely and reliable of the three mentioned above!)
Until the “Apple Bear Market Optimized Moving Average” is broken to the upside, the trend is down for this popular stock. And until the Money Flow Indicator gets near 20, it still hasn’t gone enough to an extreme in this most accurate forecasting timer for buying Apple. For now, my crystal ball says that a turn to the upside in Apple will have to wait until mid-to-late February (approximately Feb. 18-23).
