Wall Street Craps – 2012 Global Ebook Finance Award-Winner

STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR January 10, 2015: The stock market dropped for 7 straight sessions from early to mid December. It then turned around and rallied for a matching 7 sessions. On this most recent decline, the market plunged 6 days before making a “V-Bottom” and surging ahead on Wednesday and Thursday. This violent price action suggests that we could have more of these types of moves in the coming days. The ideal strategy now would be to “buy the dips and sell the rips.” The only trick is to be one step ahead of the “quants.”

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 45 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 38 (neutral)
• NYSE Overbought/Oversold Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 45 (neutral)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 37 (neutral)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 39 (neutral)
• Nasdaq Overbought/Oversold Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 41 (neutral)
• Volatility Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 43 (neutral)

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Special Notes: The 7 key indicators listed above all have neutral readings after nearly reaching deeply oversold levels. This is a reminder to traders like me that the market rarely gives perfect readings where every single indicator flashes an “all-clear” signal at the same time. Legendary technician, Joseph Granville, used to say that the market always leaves a “hook” that causes someone to postpone action. And that’s why I separate my indicators between NYSE and Nasdaq just in case one major market sector gives a signal before the other and, thus, an early opportunity to act without full confirmation. Without complete certainty from the readings of technical indicators, the fast action of the market forces smart traders to do three things:  1. Take smaller position sizes, 2. Buy only broad-based highly-active ETFs, and 3. Hold for shorter periods of time.

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR January 4, 2015: The stock market dropped for 7 straight sessions from early to mid December. It then turned around and rallied for a matching 7 sessions. If the current pattern holds, a near-term bottom could materialize around Wednesday January 7th. If the general market declines sharply into an “oversold” condition as we approach mid-week, it might be a good time to take new trading positions for a quick ride back up to test the old closing highs.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 46 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 42 (neutral)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 38 (neutral)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 43 (neutral)
• S&P 100 % Above 200 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 45 (neutral)
• Stock vs. Bond Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 41 (neutral)
• Volatility Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 39 (neutral)

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Special Notes: The 7 key indicators listed above are all below the reading of 50 after being in “overbought” areas only a week ago. Having traversed across the oscillators in each separate indicator, we could easily reach “oversold” readings if we should have just 2 or 3 days of weakness at the beginning of this coming week.

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR December 21, 2014: The stock market formed another “V-Bottom” in a similar way that it did in October. It only took 7 trading days for the market to go from top-to-bottom. In the process, the market became oversold and responded with a matching rally to the upside. This kind of breathtaking performance is something to take note of as it characterizes the current age of computerized hedge fund trading. From now on, you definitely want to avoid being on the wrong side of any large bets involving volatile trading vehicles.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 63 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 53 (neutral)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 62 (neutral)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 57 (neutral)
• S&P 100 % Above 200 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 51 (neutral)
• Stock vs. Bond Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 54 (neutral)
• Volatility Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 53 (neutral)

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Special Notes: Last Monday December 15th, marked the 14th day out of 15 in which the TRIN Index showed a bearish reading. This has never happened since I’ve been tracking the markets from 1974. While price movements have largely disguised this breadth indicator’s reading, it does demonstrate that the internal market forces have most likely corrected upside excesses. With the end of the year in sight, I’d be looking to buy some shares of diversified, non-leveraged broad-based Exchange-Traded Funds for participation in what could be a final speculative phase of the Bull Market lasting a few more years. Those ETFs would include the DIA, SPY, and QQQ (Note: Charles Schwab clients should consider building positions in SCHD and SCHB for larger, longer-term accounts)

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR December 6, 2014: The stock market continues to push upwards to new closing highs in the Dow and S&P 500. But under the surface, many breadth indicators show that the rest of the market is not following through. This suggests that the upside is limited at this time until we can create an oversold condition. With a mild correction in the coming week, we could have a buy opportunity to take us into the New Year. But for now, the market is over-extended and not a place to buy.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 37 (neutral)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 47 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 40 (neutral)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 52 (neutral)
• S&P 100 % Above 200 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 56 (neutral)
• S&P Bullish Percent Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 61 (neutral)
• Volatility Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 57 (neutral)

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Personal Note: The 21-Day Weighed Equity-Only Put-Call Ratio flashed an intermediate “sell signal” on Monday December 1st. This indicator has proven to be a very reliable measure of the extremes in term of the duration of bullish and bearish sentiment. I would respect this signal as a clear warning to avoid new purchases here. This would also be a good time to take profits on overextended long positions. On the other hand, the TRIN Index readings have been negative for 8 out of the last 9 trading sessions. This indicates a disproportionate amount of selling (energy sector), but could mean that any correction in the general market will be short in duration.

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 30, 2014: The stock market has now reached the point of exhaustion to the upside. The last two new closing Dow highs have been contained within the intraday highs that were achieved in the week before. This means that the general market should correct either sideways or to the downside in the coming week to ten days. That process has already begun in many individual stocks. But this could easily lead up to a short-term buying opportunity in mid-December for a quick ride back to the top by year’s end.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 45 (neutral)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 46 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 58 (neutral)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 58 (neutral)
• S&P 100 % Above 200 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 50 (neutral)
• Risk On/Risk Off Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 31 (neutral)
• Volatility Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 56 (neutral)

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Personal Note: I’m watching Equity-Only Put-Call Ratios with great interest now. With this past Friday’s 13th successive new closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we have now arrived at the optimal point of “buying” exhaustion. The top of this move may become a mirror-image of the most recent bottom – turning on a dime and never looking back. So be careful out there. In the wise words of Art Cashin, UBS Director of Floor Operations at the NYSE, “Stick with the drill: stay wary, alert and very, very nimble

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 23, 2014: The stock market is approaching a point of exhaustion to the upside. But Thursday’s “buy” signals in the NYSE and Nasdaq breadth indicators show that there is still more room to advance. I’m looking for the market to retest Friday’s intraday highs in the coming week. But more importantly, I would be ready for a mid-December buying opportunity should the market to begin its correction right here.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 40 (neutral)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 34 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 71 (overbought)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 52 (neutral)
• S&P 100 % Above 200 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 75 (overbought)
• Risk On/Risk Off Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 35 (neutral)
• Volatility Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 60 (neutral)

Personal Note: I’m watching some other medium-term indicators (Equity-Only Put-Call Ratios, Investor Sentiment, and NYSE Summation Index) with great interest now. With this past Friday’s 10th successive new closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we are historically only 2 or 3 more new highs from the point of “buying” exhaustion. The top of this move may become a mirror-image of the most recent bottom – turning on a dime and never looking back. So be careful out there. In the wise words of Art Cashin, UBS Director of Floor Operations at the NYSE, “Stick with the drill: stay wary, alert and very, very nimble

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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for a near term bottom in mid-December in order to establish new long positions. Don’t get antsy and remember that the “casino is always open!”

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 17, 2014: The stock market is churning near these price levels as money is nervously flowing in and out of the market. Those who bought this last bottom may be eager to cash out after this spectacular run, while others who missed it are trying to get in. With a mixed bag of internal indicators, expect the market to remain in this holding pattern with another possible run to the upside in order to entice the public into buying at the top. Keep in mind that the next cyclical bottom is due in mid-December just in time for tax-loss selling in Big Oil stocks that influence the widely-watched DJIA.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 21 (oversold)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 33 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 76 (overbought)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 72 (overbought)
• S&P 100 % Above 200 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 73 (overbought)
• S&P Bullish Percent Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 91 (overbought)
• Risk On/Risk Off Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 46 (neutral)
• Volatility Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 45 (neutral)

Other key market gauges worth following right now include:

• Equity-Only Put-Call Ratios – topping out and headed lower towards the next bottom
• Investor Sentiment – mid-range (neutral)
• NYSE Summation Index – topping out & headed down towards it next cycle low

Personal Note: The timing of Tony Robbins’ new bestseller, Money – Master the Game may coincide with a classic top in the market. As a former trainer for Mr. Robbins, I have tremendous respect for his ability to learn and master anything that he puts his heart and mind into. I’m just saying that his publisher’s timing of this work is when the book market is ripe for this topic. Hence, the uninformed public is ready to invest in equities (low-cost Equity Index Funds) at a highly popular but less-than-optimal trading time.

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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for a near term bottom in mid-December in order to establish new long positions. Don’t get antsy and remember that the “casino is always open!”

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 2, 2014: The stock market has fulfilled its “V-Shaped Bottom” with last week’s historic run to the upside. However, the new closing high on Friday is still unconfirmed by a number of major indicators. This coupled with several “overbought” readings in key underlying indicators would suggest that the upside may be limited right now. It’s probably too late to buy into this rally without experiencing some sort of sideways correction soon, but be ready to buy any dips for a resumption of this long bull market.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 71 (overbought)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 76 (overbought)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 86 (overbought)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 91 (overbought)
• S&P 100 % Above 200 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 82 (overbought)
• S&P Bullish Percent Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 83 (overbought)
• Risk On/Risk Off Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 59 (neutral)

Personal Note: A good student of the market needs to update their strategy over time in order to play the game more effectively. The reason is that the stock market game is now more volatile than ever before. The new players in the game are quicker, smarter, better equipped, more competitive, and forever looking for an “edge” in order to make money in this market.

As an individual do-it-yourself investor, the new strategy for today’s market is to make smaller bets while buying the dips and selling the rips – and thus, holding your trading positions for a shorter time. This applies to “playing” the stock market for fast money with less risk.

As far as “asset allocation” and the vehicles for “security assets” and “growth funds,” the best funds for long-term money are in the higher-yielding broad-based low-fee Exchange-Traded Funds offered by Charles Schwab and Vanguard. The annual fees charged by Exchange-Traded Funds when compounded over time can amount to significant cuts in your overall returns. This is especially true when it comes to large positions that are held for a long time – as in “Security Assets” that they are described in my book, Wall Street Craps: How to Play Today’s Hot & Cold Stock Market For Fast Money With Less Risk.

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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for a dip in the near term in order to establish new long positions. Rather than a simple bounce in a topping pattern, this rally appears to me to be a new leg of a revived bull market. Otherwise, it might be less risky to simply wait for the seasonal correction during mid-December in order to establish or add to long positions. Don’t get antsy and remember that the “casino is always open!”

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR August 2, 2014: The stock market experienced a broad correction last week that took most oscillators to deep “oversold” readings. We could be just one day away from a good bounce right here. But at the same time, there is the danger of going into a “flash crash” sometime in the next couple of weeks. While a small amount can be risked for a sharp short-term bounce, I am more inclined to let the market run its course to the downside with a better bounce off the 200-day moving averages of the major indices. That would require 200 more points to the downside in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 15 (oversold)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 32 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 9 (oversold)
• NYSE % Above 150 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 9 (oversold)
• S&P Bullish Percent Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 62 (neutral)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 20 (oversold)

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My advice for traders and investors is be on the lookout for a “flash crash” scenario in the next couple of weeks. We may get a golden opportunity to buy soon if you’re out of the market now and in cash. But the market could experience sharp swings in either direction. My guess is that August 2014 will be the month of an important trading bottom.

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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR July 28, 2014: The stock market made another attempt at the old highs during this past week. In doing so, it pushes most of the internal breadth indicators to “neutral” readings. With a lot of negative news from geopolitical sources, the market could easily decline into a short-term oversold condition in the coming week. The kind of action that we are seeing now is typical of the topping process. My guess is that we will either get a short-term buy signal on more bad news or else make another push to new highs. But be careful here because the next closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average may, in fact, be the last one of this rally.

Key underlying market indicators show the following:

• NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 48 (neutral)
• Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator – 50 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 36 (neutral)
• NYSE % Above 150 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 34 (neutral)
• Nasdaq % Above 50 Day Moving Average – Ultimate Indicator – 37 (neutral)
• Risk On/Risk Off Indicator – Ultimate Indicator – 32 (neutral)

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My advice for traders and investors is do nothing and let the market set itself up for its next big move. More downside here would permit the oscillators to become more oversold and present a short-term buying opportunity. When the bad news lets up from the geopolitical problems, there could be a sharp but short rally to new highs. If you’re looking to sell, do so on a less-than-strong closing high in the DJIA in the last hour.

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