STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR December 21, 2014: The stock market formed another “V-Bottom” in a similar way that it did in October. It only took 7 trading days for the market to go from top-to-bottom. In the process, the market became oversold and responded with a matching rally to the upside. This kind of breathtaking performance is something to take note of as it characterizes the current age of computerized hedge fund trading. From now on, you definitely want to avoid being on the wrong side of any large bets involving volatile trading vehicles.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
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Special Notes: Last Monday December 15th, marked the 14th day out of 15 in which the TRIN Index showed a bearish reading. This has never happened since I’ve been tracking the markets from 1974. While price movements have largely disguised this breadth indicator’s reading, it does demonstrate that the internal market forces have most likely corrected upside excesses. With the end of the year in sight, I’d be looking to buy some shares of diversified, non-leveraged broad-based Exchange-Traded Funds for participation in what could be a final speculative phase of the Bull Market lasting a few more years. Those ETFs would include the DIA, SPY, and QQQ (Note: Charles Schwab clients should consider building positions in SCHD and SCHB for larger, longer-term accounts)
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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for the next dip or trading opportunity in order to establish additional long equity positions. Any short-term oversold readings would be prudent times to make simple additions to your positions. While there are several more clever ways to play the upside from here, it is most likely wiser to just keep it simple by timing the dips, purchasing the above mentioned ETFs, and building core equity positions. That way, you won’t waste any time and/or energy on “stock selection” instead of the more important aspect of strategic “money management.”
Categories: Stock Market Strategy Tags: AAPL, ETF, invest, investing, investing tips, investments, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR December 6, 2014: The stock market continues to push upwards to new closing highs in the Dow and S&P 500. But under the surface, many breadth indicators show that the rest of the market is not following through. This suggests that the upside is limited at this time until we can create an oversold condition. With a mild correction in the coming week, we could have a buy opportunity to take us into the New Year. But for now, the market is over-extended and not a place to buy.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
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Personal Note: The 21-Day Weighed Equity-Only Put-Call Ratio flashed an intermediate “sell signal” on Monday December 1st. This indicator has proven to be a very reliable measure of the extremes in term of the duration of bullish and bearish sentiment. I would respect this signal as a clear warning to avoid new purchases here. This would also be a good time to take profits on overextended long positions. On the other hand, the TRIN Index readings have been negative for 8 out of the last 9 trading sessions. This indicates a disproportionate amount of selling (energy sector), but could mean that any correction in the general market will be short in duration.
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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for a near term bottom in mid-December in order to establish new long positions. Don’t get antsy and remember that the “casino is always open!”
Categories: Stock Market Strategy Tags: AAPL, ETF, invest, investing, investing tips, investments, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 23, 2014: The stock market is approaching a point of exhaustion to the upside. But Thursday’s “buy” signals in the NYSE and Nasdaq breadth indicators show that there is still more room to advance. I’m looking for the market to retest Friday’s intraday highs in the coming week. But more importantly, I would be ready for a mid-December buying opportunity should the market to begin its correction right here.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
Personal Note: I’m watching some other medium-term indicators (Equity-Only Put-Call Ratios, Investor Sentiment, and NYSE Summation Index) with great interest now. With this past Friday’s 10th successive new closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we are historically only 2 or 3 more new highs from the point of “buying” exhaustion. The top of this move may become a mirror-image of the most recent bottom – turning on a dime and never looking back. So be careful out there. In the wise words of Art Cashin, UBS Director of Floor Operations at the NYSE, “Stick with the drill: stay wary, alert and very, very nimble
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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for a near term bottom in mid-December in order to establish new long positions. Don’t get antsy and remember that the “casino is always open!”
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Categories: Stock Market Strategy Tags: AAPL, ETF, invest, investing, investing tips, investments, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR September 14, 2014: The stock market experienced a mild correction that has put it in a slightly oversold condition. With a little more downside, it could set up a short-term rally to challenge the old highs. In the meantime, interest rates have increased to provide the backdrop for a more significant decline in the coming weeks. I’d expect one final narrow-based rally within reach of the old highs before the stock market makes a steep decline into October-November.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for one last rally in order to move completely to the sidelines. The stock market has experienced a long rally for the majority of 2014 and now is the time to prepare for a meaningful correction both in extent and duration.
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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR February 9, 2014: The stock market reached oversold levels last week and is now poised to rally further. While a retest of the lows could occur at the beginning of next week, it is certainly possible for the market to simply hesitate at this level to digest the recent gains. While the majority of indicators are in neutral positions, a little bit of weakness early this coming week may be your only opportunity to hop on board for what could be a big rally worth the risk.
Key underlying market indicators show the following
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My advice for traders and investors for this week is this: look for a chance to buy on any weakness in the beginning of the coming week. The majority of internal indicators are in neutral positions now. The optimal time to buy was last Wednesday so getting in on the absolute low doesn’t look likely in this next week. Things do change quickly is this current market environment so stay alert!
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MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR December 29, 2013: The stock market rallied to 6 consecutive new highs before its slight drop on Friday. This certainly qualifies as confirmed strength but also a possible sign of an internal top. I would expect the strength to continue for a few more days with a good chance of a correction starting at the beginning of the New Year. This market is now overbought, over-loved, and overextended as the indicators below are signaling. This isn’t a time for buying, it’s a time for selling.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
My advice for traders and investors is to remain of the sidelines and let the market set itself up for the next major move. The current list of oversold Blue Chips stocks and Exchange-Trade Funds that are near the lower range of their Money Flow Indicator and could be bought on further weakness include: Ford, TLT & FXI. This short list is another indication that very few issues are in good buying ranges. I noticed that bellwether stock, Apple, may have made a final double top on “obvious good news” marking the end of its rally.
Categories: Apple Trading Strategies, Stock Market Strategy Tags: APPL, apple, investing, investing tips, investments, stock action, stock market, stock tips, stock trading, trading tips, wall street
MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR December 22, 2013: The stock market rallied right from the start of last week and didn’t give traders a chance to buy into any weakness. As of Friday December 20th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has hit 3 consecutive new closing highs. The first week of 2014 may turn out to be a top of some significance, so traders and investor beware! But until we get a key interday reversal to the downside and a weak retest of the highs, my bet is on the market to continue higher.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
For now, my advice for traders and investors is to remain of the sidelines and let the market set itself up for the next major move. Oversold Blue Chips stocks and Exchange-Trade Funds that are near the lower range of their Money Flow Indicator and could be bought on weakness include: Starbucks, Microsoft, Verizon, Japan iShares, and China iShares.
MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR December 7, 2013: The stock market had a mild 5-day correction after hitting its 13th consecutive new high in the DJIA. Yesterday (Friday Dec. 6th), the market snapped back with a rally that puts it into position to retest the previous week’s highs. That retest will occur early next week and could produce a new closing high. My hunch is that this retest will fail and clear the way to a more substantial correction shortly afterwards.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
For now, my advice for traders and investors is to remain of the sidelines and watch for short term buying opportunities in alternative oversold asset classes. Those would include real estate (IYR), long-term Treasury bonds (TLT), emerging markets (EEM), silver (SLV), and gold mining (GDX). Other stocks that could experience tax-loss selling in December and may be worth picking up for longer-term holdings include: IBM, CSCO, and AT&T.
MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 24, 2013: The stock market continues to push upwards without a hint of an extended correction. This past Friday marked the 10th consecutive new high of this current rally from its October 8th low. This pattern of new consecutive highs should continue until it reaches 13 which could occur in another week. About the only thing that could cause the change in momentum to the downside would be investor expectations of new Fed tapering. Otherwise, the lone prudent investment choice will continue to be the asset class of equities.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
For now, my advice for traders and investors is to remain of the sidelines and watch for short term buying opportunities in alternative oversold asset classes. Those would include real estate (IYR), long-term Treasury bonds (TLT), emerging markets (EEM), silver (SLV), and gold mining (GDX). I strongly discourage trading leveraged, inverse ETFs for downside action because of their tricky nature, limited history, and deceiving internal indicators. But for those who insist on dabbling in this dangerous area with small bets for short holding periods, my two choices would be (TZA) and (SDS) based on liquidity and volatility.
MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 17, 2013: The stock market continues to push upwards without a hint of an extended correction. Last Friday marked the 7th consecutive new closing high in the Dow with still more room to go on the upside. When a series of new highs occurs around the 13th time, it often marks the point of upside exhaustion….but we are not there yet. Other underlying indicators (shown below with links) also imply that the stock market still can move upwards for a little longer (4-7 market days) without a correction.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
For now, my advice for traders is to be on the sidelines and wait for the market to set itself up for its next big move. The balance of indicators have neutral readings despite the upwards movement in prices. While many chartists are jumping at the bit to call the next top, the internal readings of the market still allow for more room or time to the upside. But that being said, a market player should be ready for one good correction in December in order to set up the customary Santa Claus Rally. Be on the lookout for a tricky, but opportunity-filled stock market during Thanksgiving Week.