STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR January 19, 2015: The stock market reached a slightly oversold level on Thursday’s close on the 15-day TRIN Index. This index showed that 12 out of the previous 15 sessions registered a disproportionate amount of selling volume compared to issues traded. But this indicator was only confirmed by a few other oversold/overbought oscillators. Thus, the general market could experience another short-term rally to challenge the old closing highs. Whether, this rally has enough staying power or not is the big question on the minds of investors.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
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Special Notes: The market did present a buying opportunity during the early fade on Friday morning. So don’t be surprised if Tuesday opens strongly in either direction as big money moves quickly from asset class to asset class. At such times, there is both risk of losing money and risk of losing out on an opportunity. This might be a time to simply sit things out until the markets stabilize or at least retest more clearly-defined levels such as the 200-Day Moving Average or recent cyclical bottoms.
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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for the next trading opportunity or take a small long position on a quiet opening early in Tuesday’s session. Either way, I believe that it will not be prudent to make a large bet on the direction of the general market at this time.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy Tags: AAPL, ETF, invest, investing, investing tips, investments, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR January 10, 2015: The stock market dropped for 7 straight sessions from early to mid December. It then turned around and rallied for a matching 7 sessions. On this most recent decline, the market plunged 6 days before making a “V-Bottom” and surging ahead on Wednesday and Thursday. This violent price action suggests that we could have more of these types of moves in the coming days. The ideal strategy now would be to “buy the dips and sell the rips.” The only trick is to be one step ahead of the “quants.”
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
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Special Notes: The 7 key indicators listed above all have neutral readings after nearly reaching deeply oversold levels. This is a reminder to traders like me that the market rarely gives perfect readings where every single indicator flashes an “all-clear” signal at the same time. Legendary technician, Joseph Granville, used to say that the market always leaves a “hook” that causes someone to postpone action. And that’s why I separate my indicators between NYSE and Nasdaq just in case one major market sector gives a signal before the other and, thus, an early opportunity to act without full confirmation. Without complete certainty from the readings of technical indicators, the fast action of the market forces smart traders to do three things: 1. Take smaller position sizes, 2. Buy only broad-based highly-active ETFs, and 3. Hold for shorter periods of time.
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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for the next dip or trading opportunity in the coming week. I’d be on the lookout for an quick return to the downside in order to retest last Tuesday’s bottom. That retest could be successful and result in another big move to the upside. But you’re going to have to be able to pull the trigger quickly on this one as the time to buy may be intraday on Tuesday. I would reduce my risk through diversification by selecting any of the following Exchange-Traded Funds as your primary trading vehicles: DDM, SSO, DIA, SPY, QQQ
Categories: Stock Market Strategy Tags: AAPL, ETF, invest, investing, investing tips, investments, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR January 4, 2015: The stock market dropped for 7 straight sessions from early to mid December. It then turned around and rallied for a matching 7 sessions. If the current pattern holds, a near-term bottom could materialize around Wednesday January 7th. If the general market declines sharply into an “oversold” condition as we approach mid-week, it might be a good time to take new trading positions for a quick ride back up to test the old closing highs.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
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Special Notes: The 7 key indicators listed above are all below the reading of 50 after being in “overbought” areas only a week ago. Having traversed across the oscillators in each separate indicator, we could easily reach “oversold” readings if we should have just 2 or 3 days of weakness at the beginning of this coming week.
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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for the next dip or trading opportunity in the coming week. It could result in a sharp rally to retest the old highs set last Monday. I’d stay diversified for this projected rally in any of the following Exchange-Traded Funds: DDM, SSO, DIA, SPY, QQQ (Note: select only the ones that have oversold readings)
Categories: Stock Market Strategy Tags: Categories: Market Observations Tags: AAPL, ETF, invest, investing, investing tips, investments, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR December 21, 2014: The stock market formed another “V-Bottom” in a similar way that it did in October. It only took 7 trading days for the market to go from top-to-bottom. In the process, the market became oversold and responded with a matching rally to the upside. This kind of breathtaking performance is something to take note of as it characterizes the current age of computerized hedge fund trading. From now on, you definitely want to avoid being on the wrong side of any large bets involving volatile trading vehicles.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
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Special Notes: Last Monday December 15th, marked the 14th day out of 15 in which the TRIN Index showed a bearish reading. This has never happened since I’ve been tracking the markets from 1974. While price movements have largely disguised this breadth indicator’s reading, it does demonstrate that the internal market forces have most likely corrected upside excesses. With the end of the year in sight, I’d be looking to buy some shares of diversified, non-leveraged broad-based Exchange-Traded Funds for participation in what could be a final speculative phase of the Bull Market lasting a few more years. Those ETFs would include the DIA, SPY, and QQQ (Note: Charles Schwab clients should consider building positions in SCHD and SCHB for larger, longer-term accounts)
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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for the next dip or trading opportunity in order to establish additional long equity positions. Any short-term oversold readings would be prudent times to make simple additions to your positions. While there are several more clever ways to play the upside from here, it is most likely wiser to just keep it simple by timing the dips, purchasing the above mentioned ETFs, and building core equity positions. That way, you won’t waste any time and/or energy on “stock selection” instead of the more important aspect of strategic “money management.”
Categories: Stock Market Strategy Tags: AAPL, ETF, invest, investing, investing tips, investments, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR December 6, 2014: The stock market continues to push upwards to new closing highs in the Dow and S&P 500. But under the surface, many breadth indicators show that the rest of the market is not following through. This suggests that the upside is limited at this time until we can create an oversold condition. With a mild correction in the coming week, we could have a buy opportunity to take us into the New Year. But for now, the market is over-extended and not a place to buy.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
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Personal Note: The 21-Day Weighed Equity-Only Put-Call Ratio flashed an intermediate “sell signal” on Monday December 1st. This indicator has proven to be a very reliable measure of the extremes in term of the duration of bullish and bearish sentiment. I would respect this signal as a clear warning to avoid new purchases here. This would also be a good time to take profits on overextended long positions. On the other hand, the TRIN Index readings have been negative for 8 out of the last 9 trading sessions. This indicates a disproportionate amount of selling (energy sector), but could mean that any correction in the general market will be short in duration.
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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for a near term bottom in mid-December in order to establish new long positions. Don’t get antsy and remember that the “casino is always open!”
Categories: Stock Market Strategy Tags: AAPL, ETF, invest, investing, investing tips, investments, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 30, 2014: The stock market has now reached the point of exhaustion to the upside. The last two new closing Dow highs have been contained within the intraday highs that were achieved in the week before. This means that the general market should correct either sideways or to the downside in the coming week to ten days. That process has already begun in many individual stocks. But this could easily lead up to a short-term buying opportunity in mid-December for a quick ride back to the top by year’s end.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
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Personal Note: I’m watching Equity-Only Put-Call Ratios with great interest now. With this past Friday’s 13th successive new closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we have now arrived at the optimal point of “buying” exhaustion. The top of this move may become a mirror-image of the most recent bottom – turning on a dime and never looking back. So be careful out there. In the wise words of Art Cashin, UBS Director of Floor Operations at the NYSE, “Stick with the drill: stay wary, alert and very, very nimble
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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for a near term bottom in mid-December in order to establish new long positions. Don’t get antsy and remember that the “casino is always open!”
Categories: Stock Market Strategy Tags: AAPL, ETF, investing, investments, money, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 23, 2014: The stock market is approaching a point of exhaustion to the upside. But Thursday’s “buy” signals in the NYSE and Nasdaq breadth indicators show that there is still more room to advance. I’m looking for the market to retest Friday’s intraday highs in the coming week. But more importantly, I would be ready for a mid-December buying opportunity should the market to begin its correction right here.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
Personal Note: I’m watching some other medium-term indicators (Equity-Only Put-Call Ratios, Investor Sentiment, and NYSE Summation Index) with great interest now. With this past Friday’s 10th successive new closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we are historically only 2 or 3 more new highs from the point of “buying” exhaustion. The top of this move may become a mirror-image of the most recent bottom – turning on a dime and never looking back. So be careful out there. In the wise words of Art Cashin, UBS Director of Floor Operations at the NYSE, “Stick with the drill: stay wary, alert and very, very nimble
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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for a near term bottom in mid-December in order to establish new long positions. Don’t get antsy and remember that the “casino is always open!”
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Categories: Stock Market Strategy Tags: AAPL, ETF, invest, investing, investing tips, investments, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 17, 2014: The stock market is churning near these price levels as money is nervously flowing in and out of the market. Those who bought this last bottom may be eager to cash out after this spectacular run, while others who missed it are trying to get in. With a mixed bag of internal indicators, expect the market to remain in this holding pattern with another possible run to the upside in order to entice the public into buying at the top. Keep in mind that the next cyclical bottom is due in mid-December just in time for tax-loss selling in Big Oil stocks that influence the widely-watched DJIA.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
Other key market gauges worth following right now include:
Personal Note: The timing of Tony Robbins’ new bestseller, Money – Master the Game may coincide with a classic top in the market. As a former trainer for Mr. Robbins, I have tremendous respect for his ability to learn and master anything that he puts his heart and mind into. I’m just saying that his publisher’s timing of this work is when the book market is ripe for this topic. Hence, the uninformed public is ready to invest in equities (low-cost Equity Index Funds) at a highly popular but less-than-optimal trading time.
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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for a near term bottom in mid-December in order to establish new long positions. Don’t get antsy and remember that the “casino is always open!”
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Categories: Stock Market Strategy Tags: AAPL, ETF, investing, investments, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock trading, stock trading tips, stocks, trading, trading tips, wall street
STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR September 14, 2014: The stock market experienced a mild correction that has put it in a slightly oversold condition. With a little more downside, it could set up a short-term rally to challenge the old highs. In the meantime, interest rates have increased to provide the backdrop for a more significant decline in the coming weeks. I’d expect one final narrow-based rally within reach of the old highs before the stock market makes a steep decline into October-November.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
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My advice for traders and investors is let the market set-up for one last rally in order to move completely to the sidelines. The stock market has experienced a long rally for the majority of 2014 and now is the time to prepare for a meaningful correction both in extent and duration.
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STOCK MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR March 23, 2014: The stock market rallied sharply in the beginning of last week which prevented a true “oversold” condition from developing. With weakness towards the end of the week, the stock market is currently showing “neutral” readings across the board. This means that the market has an equal chance of going in either direction. So be patient and wait for the market to set itself up for its next important move.
Key underlying market indicators show the following
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My advice for traders and investors is to be largely in cash while the market is in this indecision pattern. There are currently no stocks or Exchange-Traded Funds that are in the “oversold” area. Along with the “neutral” readings on all of the internal indicators, this is most likely a time to sit and wait for the next major move to take shape.
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