MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR December 7, 2013: The stock market had a mild 5-day correction after hitting its 13th consecutive new high in the DJIA. Yesterday (Friday Dec. 6th), the market snapped back with a rally that puts it into position to retest the previous week’s highs. That retest will occur early next week and could produce a new closing high. My hunch is that this retest will fail and clear the way to a more substantial correction shortly afterwards.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
For now, my advice for traders and investors is to remain of the sidelines and watch for short term buying opportunities in alternative oversold asset classes. Those would include real estate (IYR), long-term Treasury bonds (TLT), emerging markets (EEM), silver (SLV), and gold mining (GDX). Other stocks that could experience tax-loss selling in December and may be worth picking up for longer-term holdings include: IBM, CSCO, and AT&T.
MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 24, 2013: The stock market continues to push upwards without a hint of an extended correction. This past Friday marked the 10th consecutive new high of this current rally from its October 8th low. This pattern of new consecutive highs should continue until it reaches 13 which could occur in another week. About the only thing that could cause the change in momentum to the downside would be investor expectations of new Fed tapering. Otherwise, the lone prudent investment choice will continue to be the asset class of equities.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
For now, my advice for traders and investors is to remain of the sidelines and watch for short term buying opportunities in alternative oversold asset classes. Those would include real estate (IYR), long-term Treasury bonds (TLT), emerging markets (EEM), silver (SLV), and gold mining (GDX). I strongly discourage trading leveraged, inverse ETFs for downside action because of their tricky nature, limited history, and deceiving internal indicators. But for those who insist on dabbling in this dangerous area with small bets for short holding periods, my two choices would be (TZA) and (SDS) based on liquidity and volatility.
MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 17, 2013: The stock market continues to push upwards without a hint of an extended correction. Last Friday marked the 7th consecutive new closing high in the Dow with still more room to go on the upside. When a series of new highs occurs around the 13th time, it often marks the point of upside exhaustion….but we are not there yet. Other underlying indicators (shown below with links) also imply that the stock market still can move upwards for a little longer (4-7 market days) without a correction.
Key underlying market indicators show the following:
For now, my advice for traders is to be on the sidelines and wait for the market to set itself up for its next big move. The balance of indicators have neutral readings despite the upwards movement in prices. While many chartists are jumping at the bit to call the next top, the internal readings of the market still allow for more room or time to the upside. But that being said, a market player should be ready for one good correction in December in order to set up the customary Santa Claus Rally. Be on the lookout for a tricky, but opportunity-filled stock market during Thanksgiving Week.
MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR November 9, 2013: The stock market’s wild swings on Thursday and Friday suggest that we are entering a period of high volatility. This makes the game make trickier to play and being wrong can end up putting your emotions to the test. While Wednesday’s top looked like a classic non-confirmation, the strong rally on Friday ends the most recent simple price patterns of the market and puts the future in doubt. As the indicators will show, the overall market is a mixed bag of both buy and sell signals.
Key market indicators show the following:
For now, my advice for traders is to be on the sidelines and wait for clearer signals on the market. While the oscillators are close to buy signals, the price appears to be too high for a low-risk entry point. But a series of weak new closing highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average could signal a sharp sell-off in the coming week.
MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR October 27, 2013: The stock market has been marching upwards for the past 13 trading sessions. During this coming week, the time of this rally will have matched the previous downleg and thus, be ripe for a pullback. I would not be surprised to see a new closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average sometime next week which would mark the high of this phase of the rally. But current readings of key breadth indicators show that the general market has already begun its correction. That could mean that the correction will be sharp in terms of price, but short in duration.
Key market indicators show the following:
For now, my advice for traders is to be on the sidelines as the stock market peaks this coming week. Since I don’t see a good way to participate on the downside, I’d prefer to wait until the market becomes oversold and then play the next rally. Retests of highs and lows has not been characteristic of this market. Instead, the stock market goes up until it runs out of time and then retreats into a similar reversal. Playing the extremes in breadth oscillators seems like the best way to go….. especially to the upside. And in this market, playing the downside has been a study in frustration and capital loss.
MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR October 20, 2013: As I mentioned last week, the stock market’s rallies and declines over the past few months have ranged between 14 and 17 trading days. The October 8th bottom comes exactly 14 days after the most recent closing high in the Dow Industrial Average. The current rhythm of the market suggests that the next top should come between 14 and 17 days after the October 8th bottom. That means that the end of this rally in terms of time is scheduled to arrive around Oct 28-31. So there is still another week of upside before this market is ready to move downwards.
Key market indicators show the following:
For now, my advice for traders is to move to the sidelines as the stock market reaches the end of this month. The overbought readings along with overly-bullish sentiment makes it an ideal time to start selling positions and moving to cash. The news can’t get any better and the opportunity is to sell, not buy right now.
MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR October 13, 2013: The stock market’s rallies and declines over the past few months have ranged between 14 and 17 trading days. The October 8th bottom comes exactly 14 days after the most recent closing high in the Dow Industrial Average. The current rhythm of the market suggests that the next top should come between 14 and 17 days after the October 8th bottom. Since we are only 3-4 days into the rally phase, there is still lots of time for the stock market to continue its current uptrend.
Key market indicators show the following:
For now, my advice for traders is to look for weakness early next week in which to take short-term “rental” positions in the QQQ, IWM, SPY, and DIA Exchange-Traded Funds. Expect to hold these positions into the end of the month. Otherwise, be ready to lighten up as the market’s rally runs out of time.
“Virtually all traders experience periods when they are out of sync with the markets. When you are in a losing streak, you can’t turn the situation around by trying harder. When trading is going badly, Clark’s advice is to get out of everything and take a holiday. Liquidating positions will allow you to regain objectivity.”
Source: Schwager, Jack D. (2012-04-25). Hedge Fund Market Wizards. John Wiley and Sons. Kindle Edition.
MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR SEPTEMBER 11, 2012: The stock market is at the top of its trading range right now. It has made three new rally highs in the last four trading sessions. The question is whether these new highs are confirmed or not confirmed by strength across the board. There’s a good chance that today’s closing high is the high for the year especially if tomorrow’s early strength does not follow through.
The McClellan Summation Index has broken out into a new uptrend after going sideways for several weeks. It gives the indication that the rally has more to go on the upside in both time and price. This prevents me from being more certain about an immediate correction.
Other key market indicators show the following:
- Investor Sentiment – is slightly negative over the long term but neutral near term
- NYSE Breadth Oscillator – the Ultimate Indicator reading is 68 which is only two points away from a sell signal. This would be triggered by one or two up-days.
- Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – the Ultimate Indicator reading is 64 which is 6 points away from a sell signal.
- Risk On/Risk Off Indicator – the Ultimate Indicator reading is 67 and is 3 points away from a sell signal. This would be triggered by one to two up-days.
For now, it would be prudent to move out of stocks and into cash. For those seeking a chance to speculate, a small bet on the downside can be made if Wednesday’s initial up move is not confirmed by strength in the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
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In regards to Apple (AAPL), the stock was hit hard today and could be setting itself up for a classic cover story top tomorrow September 12 with the unveiling of its new iPhone. Weakness in AAPL and other technology issues are a signal of subsurface weakness in the market. This is one of the main reasons why I think today’s close may be the top of this rally.
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MARKET OBSERVATIONS FOR AUGUST 26, 2012: The stock market has gone through a short and shallow correction since its intraday highs early last week. If the correction is complete, then I expect those highs to be retested sometime this week. If a nominal new closing high (or series of exhaustion highs) occurs without underlying strength in key breadth and volume areas, this could mark the end of the summer rally. But a successful retest of the highs will add more fuel to the upside and prolong the current rally well into September and maybe beyond. Either scenario has a decent chance of playing out so stay flexible in your stock market decision-making.
Key market indicators show the following:
- McClellan Summation Index – is on the verge of turning down. This is warning us to beware of the market failing at the upcoming retest and then falling sharply afterwards.
- Investor Sentiment – is still close to the mid-range area with no definitive signals.
- NYSE Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator reading of 40 and needs to close below 30 to signal a buy.
- Nasdaq Breadth Oscillator – Ultimate Indicator reading of 44 and needs to close below 30 to signal a buy.
- Risk On/Risk Off Indicator -Ultimate Indicator reading of 48 and needs to close below 30 to signal a buy. It is now in a “risk-off” position which means to be on the side of safety (Treasury Bonds or cash).
- Volatility Indicator – had a recent sell warning and gives a hint of future weakness up ahead.
For now, the best advice is to remain on the sidelines getting ready for a retest of last week’s highs. A successful test will give the rally more time on the upside. But an unsuccessful test may lead to a sharp shakeout and increased volatility to the downside.
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In regards to Apple (AAPL), the stock may see its highs on Monday with the favorable news on its court ruling with Samsung. This is just the kind of “cover story” and obvious good news that tends to trap the amateurs into buying at the top! Any buying done here is at high risk! However, lightening up and getting out of long positions in AAPL would be considered prudent from a trader’s perspective.
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