Wall Street Craps – 2012 Global Ebook Finance Award-Winner

CHECK FOR SWEATY PALMS: The best entry points in the stock market are often the times when it feels the scariest. This is because the media has an uncanny way of causing negative investor sentiment with a barrage of relentless bad news at stock market bottoms. Recognize that key turning points in the market are usually counterintuitive.

The hardest, yet best time to buy is often when everyone else is selling and no one else is buying. Conversely, the most comfortable, yet worst, time to buy is usually when no one is selling and everyone else is buying. If your palms aren’t sweaty and you’re not afraid to buy, you’re probably not at a good stock-market bottom. Always remember that having sweaty palms caused by media-induced fear is one of the key prerequisites to buying into the stock market at an optimal time.

Comment: Find several ways to monitor fear, worry, and apathy in the stock market. Notice the outspoken people who are notoriously wrong at key turning points in the market. While I like to notice whether I have sweaty palms or not, I also notice when the clamor of worry or the confidence of short-sellers becomes excessively loud in volume or number.

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“Nobody rings a bell at the market bottom.”

Wall Street Adage

DON’T GET ANTSY & JUMP IN: Don’t let low rates of return on cash equivalents be your sole reason for buying. The market will reward your patience and discipline with solid double-digit returns.

Many investors assume that their money must be “at work” all of the time. But there may be times when the best values for your liquid assets are not to be found in the equity or fixed income markets. Instead, the best use of your money at these unique moments may be in paying off debt, buying items of value for personal use, increasing your insurance needs, or simply protecting it from risk.

There’s something good to remind yourself about when low returns on cash equivalents cause you to start feeling antsy to trade: it’s much better to earn a positive risk-free rate of 1%, than it is to suffer through a negative 25% return in a downward trending stock market.

Comment: It’s perfectly okay to sit in a cash position for extended periods of time even when it is yielding less than 1%. Don’t let salespeople talk you into going after higher yields when it comes to your short-term and intermediate-term money. The extra yield over a year or two is less significant than keeping your powder dry for a market that is setting up for an eventual big move in either stocks or bonds.

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“Bet big when the odds are in your favor, bet small when you’re less convinced, and don’t bet at all if you’re not sure.”

Jim Cramer ~ Host of CNBC’s Mad Money

MARKET BUY SIGNALS FOR JANUARY 8, 2012: The master strategy for winning at Wall Street Craps is to always play the game correctly by making only smart percentage bets at the optimal time period in the appropriate amounts relative to risk. Do these key tasks consistently as well as manage your overall bankroll wisely and “Know Thy Self” so that you can adjust your play according to your unique individual temperament.

• Sentiment Signals = moderately optimistic both long and short term

• Breadth Signals = breadth indicators are moderately overbought

• High Yield Bond Signals = topping out and headed for a potential stock market bottom

Comment: The stock market is at the top of its trading range. This past week’s action can be described as an “overshoot rally” (enthusiastic momentum) which can be a real fooler to investors. A tradable bottom looks to be more than a few weeks away in order to get the right amount of sentiment shift. But with the overall moderately overbought sentiment and technical readings, the stock market can still go in any direction. This looks like another week to sit on the sidelines letting the market set up for its next big move to participate in.

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“Winning big bets is the real key to investing success. The amateur typically dabbles in an assortment of small high risk long-shots in the effort to receive a big payout. On the other hand, the pro only makes a few big moves when there is low risk and good returns. Therefore, the secret for any savvy player is to wait for the market to set up for a major buy opportunity. That way, an investor can place an intelligent big bet on a well-diversified, deeply undervalued, dividend paying Blue Chip equity position with complete confidence.”

Steve Nakamoto ~ Author of Wall Street Craps