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WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – SEPTEMBER 18, 2016

September 17th, 2016 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 18, 2016: The stock market has retreated and bounced around for the last few weeks. The internal indicators are near the lower range and could reach oversold readings if the market should fall in the coming days. Look for weakness early this week with the opportunity to buy near the end of the week for another run to new highs. If that scenario doesn’t set up that way, then step aside and let the market create a different kind of opportunity further down the road.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The internal indicators are neutral but within range of a bottom. While the readings have not been very severe to the downside, the length of time in this lower range suggests that a move up should be coming soon. It is based on that factor, that I’d be ready to move into action should we see weakness at the beginning of next week.

BLOGGER SENTIMENT FOR THE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 12-16, 2016

September 14th, 2016 Comments off

sept-12-16-blogger-sentimentThere has been an important shift in sentiment as the bears now outnumber the bulls 41.67% to 37.50%. This is one of the first prerequisites to forming an intermediate-term bottom. Now we need some more downside action to produce a higher degree of fear and for the internal breadth indicators to move into a deeply oversold area. That could happen as early as Friday, but more likely next week sometime. My guess is that the “Brexit Bottom” will hold and even serve as the most extreme lower boundary for any spike down in price.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – SEPTEMBER 5, 2016

September 5th, 2016 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 5, 2016: The stock market reached a short-term low intraday on Wednesday. Since that time, the internal oscillators have been trending up. This has been a sideways correction with the Dow remaining in a 300-point trading range for 38 straight trading days. Another new closing high in the coming week is certainly possible. But overall, the market did not become oversold enough or create enough of a sentiment shift to fuel the market towards a big move upwards.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The internal indicators are all trending up after last Wednesday’s bottom. That gives the general market time to rally more and reach new high ground. But since the market did not become deeply oversold, I would be careful about being either long or short with any significant positions. A better risk/reward opportunity should present itself in the coming months which historically has been volatile. Keep your powder dry instead.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – AUGUST 24, 2016

August 25th, 2016 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR AUGUST 24, 2016: The stock market’s drop today has sent the breadth oscillators downwards towards a possible oversold condition by the beginning of next week. At this point, the market may begin to show more weakness and finally give us a clear pattern from which to trade from. So keep your powder dry and be ready to take positions in case an oversold scenario starts to take shape.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The internal indicators show that the market is finally trending downwards in unison. With today’s action, we have a pattern that may lead to a buying opportunity very shortly. This will probably be a “V-shaped” bottom without any kind of retest so be ready to take action on weakness in a few days. It may even be a spike down towards a key 200-day moving average which chartists will point to as being the pivot point. So be ready for a short-term trade on the long-side if the market sets up that way.

Put/Call Ratio Market Timing For August 15, 2016

August 16th, 2016 Comments off

Aug 16 put call ratioThe stock market appears to be at the very end of its rally since February 11, 2016. The only thing that prevents me from being downright bearish, is the possibility that the Brexit bottom may have already flushed out the weak hands and created an intermediate-term low. But most of all, this indicator makes an investor or trader aware of the risks to holding long positions in the general market at this time. Better odds for upside appreciation seems likely at another time down the road. (Source: www.optionstrategist.com)

Put/Call Ratio Market Timing For May 20, 2016

May 21st, 2016 Comments off

Put Call Ratio May 20The tide has turned according to this venerable intermediate-term indicator. And while short-term bounces can occur whenever the market gets slightly oversold, this chart shows us that the really good buying opportunities occur when the red “B” is closer to the 150 level on the left axis. This level does not appear to be possible for at least another month of market activity. The general pessimism in the market is not yet at the level of fear that is needed in order to buy for the longer term. (Source: www.optionstrategist.com)

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – MAY 15, 2016

May 15th, 2016 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MAY 15, 2016: The stock market bounced from an oversold condition mid-week and then reversed to the downside by Friday. With the internal indicators reset to neutral positions, the market can experience moves in either direction. This sets up a volatile market and one that is likely to have some scary moments to the downside. While a retest of previous highs in still a possibility, I would stay out until a better bottom appears as a result of higher investor fear in the market.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market could go in either direction. My guess is that the market needs more fear in order to sustain a rally worth betting on. So expect bad news and increased volatility in the near term in order to create the ideal buying situation.

Put/Call Ratio Market Timing For May 14, 2016

May 14th, 2016 Comments off

Put Call Ratio May 14This intermediate-term indicator shows that the rally from February 11th is over. The next destination is a buy signal marked by the red “B” which should ideally arrive when the x-axis is above 150. In terms of time, that would project to the July time period if you were to measure the space between the two most recent buy signals. Based on this, it would be prudent to sit out the action in the stock market until more severe pain causes a better buying opportunity. With the goal of buying low and selling high, it is not a time to buy now. (Source: www.optionstrategist.com)

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY – MAY 8, 2016

May 8th, 2016 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MAY 8, 2016: The stock market reached oversold breadth conditions on Thursday’s close. The early down move on Friday presented an opportunity to enter the market for a possible ride back to challenge the previous highs. The market’s character for the past several years is to form V-shaped bottoms on corrections so don’t be surprised if it goes straight up from here. Traders – look for any weakness on Monday as one more chance to buy this market for a short-term rally.

Key underlying short-term market indicators show the following:

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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market may go up from here based on oversold breadth indicators. This will probably be the last rally in this market and be the proverbial “Sell in May” high for the intermediate term. The best place to be on final rallies is usually the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA). And as legendary market analyst, Joseph Granville, used to point out, “The last rally is usually lead by the oils.”

Put/Call Ratio Market Timing For May 7, 2016

May 7th, 2016 Comments off

Put Call Ratio May 7This reliable intermediate-term indicator suggests that an important sell signal has just been triggered for the general market. While tops tend to be broader and trickier than bottoms, it still implies that this is not a good time to be long equities or to initiate new purchases. But with breadth indicators at oversold readings on Friday, we could have one small rally from here before resuming a further decline. The buy signal (red B on the chart) is projected to be around July-August based on an equal time interval. (Source: www.optionstrategist.com)