STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR AUGUST 22, 2020: The stock market is hovering near its all-time highs in many indices. But the real strength has been in large tech companies like Apple, Google and Amazon. I suspect there will be one more rally coming soon since some indicators are showing “oversold” reading today.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator broke below its 15-day moving average on Friday which has been an early sell signal in the past.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: AAPL, invest, investing, investing tips, investments, QQQ, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JULY 12, 2020: The stock market is near the top of its trading range. After a large gap down last month, the market has held its own for a few weeks now. The question is whether the market will fill that gap soon or head down from here. In any case, it does not appear that a new All-Time High is likely or if it does reach a new high – that will mark the end of the rally since March 23rd.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market’s internal indicators are reading “neutral.” This means that it could go either way from here. The move that I think may happen is a new closing high to fill the June gap, but that high marking the top of this move since March 23rd.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: AAPL, invest, investing, investing tips, investments, QQQ, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JUNE 16, 2020: The stock market made a sharp move downwards on last Thursday and has recovered much of that decline over the last 3 trading days. This sets up the possibility of a Classic Dow Theory and Granville Non-Confirmation sell signal on the next closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This new unconfirmed high could mark the end of this powerul rally since the March 26th bottom.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market is setting itself up for a possible sell signal on the next closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That new high would be unconfirmed by the majority of other indicators and particularly the Dow Jones Transportation Average which would need to rally substantially in the next few days. Note: The next closing high may even have one or two additional days to the upside with each day being progressively weaker and more selective.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: AAPL, invest, investing, investing tips, investments, QQQ, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MAY 7, 2020: The stock market has been hovering in a tight trading range for the last couple of weeks. During this time, a few of the internal oscillators have come down to the “oversold” range. That brings the possibility of a short-term bottom in 2 to 3 trading days if the trend continues down. But be careful of a potential crash, too.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market is approaching a possible short-term buying opportunity as the internal indicators move down to oversold readings. But a trader must be careful not to jump the gun since there could be a downside break with momentum or a possible mini-crash.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: AAPL, invest, investing, investing tips, investments, QQQ, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR APRIL 11, 2020: Last week,the stock market said “no” to the idea of an immediate retest of the previous lows that so many were expecting. Instead, it went straight up in the face of bad news where it now sits at the halfway point of the entire previous decline. With the internal indicators just below “overbought” levels, one could expect a few more days of strength before the top of this rally can be expected.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market may have a few more days of strength before it corrects this rally phase. It is anyone’s guess whether the market will decline or back and fill. But the stage can be set for an extended rally where the majority missed out at the bottom, the fear of missing out kicks in, and the market climbs the proverbial “wall of worry.”
“The market will do whatever it has to do to embarrass the greatest number of people to the greatest extent possible.” — Walter Deemer’s Law Of Perversity
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: AAPL, invest, investing, investing tips, investments, QQQ, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR APRIL 2, 2020: The stock market made an internal bottom on March 23rd and rallied until March 30th. In the process of rallying, the general market became overbought and now is trending lower. It will likely take 3-5 trading days from here in order to become oversold. That means that a successful retest of the lows could occur early next week and be worth playing to the upside. But be careful……. let the oscillators become oversold and the volume to lighten up.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market made an internal low, bounced and is now in the process of retesting its March 23rd low. If a new closing low in the Dow Jones Industrial Average occurs without the majority of other major internal technical indicators confirming that action, we could be in store for a tradable bottom. Of course, this would likely occur in the face of obvious bad news. And as famed market technician, Walter Deemer, famously said, “When the time comes to buy, you won’t want to.”
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: invest, investing, investing tips, investments, QQQ, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips
The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” has a current reading of “4” which indicates that we are in the area of an “Extreme Fear” buy signal. This is only one criteria for a trading bottom but an important one. The December 24, 2018 bottom had a reading of “2” so we are in that rare general area. Any reading below this is probably worth a trade to the long side. This indicator does not stay in this area for very long.
Categories: Fear & Greed Index, Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: invest, investing, investing tips, investments, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MARCH 7, 2020: The stock market made a key low on Friday February 28th and has had a choppy bounce since them. A retest of that low is taking place right now and there is a good chance that any weakness from here would represent a buying opportunity for a short-term trade. But buying into weakness with the current news background will take nerves of steel because the retest could fail as well.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market may be in a position to rally strongly after some short term weaknesses. But this is not a certainty and the low may not hold with prices continuing downwards on another leg. For many swing traders and investors, this may be an opportunity to pass on or play very lightly.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: invest, investing, investing tips, investments, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips
The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” has a current reading of “10” which indicates that we are in the area of an “Extreme Fear” buy signal. This is only one criteria for a trading bottom and it could easily go down further. An “Extreme Fear” reading of “2” occurred at the December 2018 bottom. So be careful here. There is still room for more downside and the stretching of this indicator.
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR FEBRUARY 23, 2020: The stock market experienced a broad decline over the past week. In the process, many internal indicators are now trending down towards a possible low and buying opportunity in the near term. The question will be whether this bounce is worth buying or not. At this time, it is hard to determine if the current downtrend will gather momentum or not.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market is trending down into a likely bounce towards the end of next week. For the quick and nimble, it might be worth playing this bounce for a quick gain. But for others, it might be wise to let the market determine the true strength of this decline and whether it’s simply better to sit on the sidelines for awhile.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: invest, investing, investing tips, investments, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips