Wall Street Craps – 2012 Global Ebook Finance Award-Winner

SELL NEAR THE CLOSE: Another good time to sell is during the last half hour of trading. This is particularly true before a weekend or three-day holiday when unexpected bad news could trap you in the wrong position.

Today’s stock market can also be subjected to manipulation by large hedge funds, resulting in strong moves during the last hour of trading. Since hedge funds usually base their trading decisions on computerized statistical models, these last-minute advances may not be based on any tangible information that will carry over into the next trading session.

A savvy investor can take advantage of these strong erratic moves during the last half hour by simply selling into the market’s temporary strength. This strategy is particularly useful when the character of recent market behavior shows a tendency to operate without any memory of the previous day.

Comment: Sometimes you just have to take the money and run. And when you get a strong close in the last half hour, it makes a lot of sense to sell into that market strength. You never know when that type of move is merely done to set up shorts in a thin market.

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“The most liquid period is the opening. Liquidity starts falling off pretty quickly after the opening. The second most liquid time of the day is the close. Trading volume typically forms a U-shaped curve throughout the day. There’s a lot of liquidity right at the opening, it then falls off, reaching a nadir at midday, and then it starts to climb back up, reaching a secondary peak on the close. Generally speaking, this pattern holds in almost every market. It’s actually pretty amazing.”

Monroe Trout ~ Professional trader

SELL AT THE OPENING: The best time to sell is often at the opening after a strong close the previous day. Your sell order can be placed during the quiet hours when the stock market is closed and your mind is clear.

For many investors, this is the easiest way to sell at a good price. And while bad news could crop up overnight, there is more often than not some sort of carryover from the previous day’s activities in the market the following morning. Placing your order to sell before the opening of trading is the least stressful way to get out of profitable positions and, in many cases, at the best price of the day. This is particularly true when the previous day’s strength is based on valid fundamental news rather than on pure speculation or anticipation of favorable data.

Comment: This is one of my favorite times to sell. And while I may not sell all of my positions at the opening, I will certainly lighten up a significant number of shares if the previous day had a spectacular upside move with strong close. It’s a way of getting out before the market has time to reconsider and change directions. It also catches a lot of public money trying to pile in at the opening so that they don’t miss out on an obvious rally fueled by good news.

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“Morning markets are the most active and the most liquid. They are largely public. Midday markets are thin and quiet. Most markets get more active and liquid in the afternoon prior to the close, but the activity is largely institutional.”

Dean Lundell ~ Author and professional trader

ALWAYS PLAY THE GAME CORRECTLY: Trade the stock market without any traces of ego or emotional attachments. Your primary objective over the long term is to build real wealth by becoming a savvy investor who manages their money wisely and consistently plays the game correctly.

The reality of playing the stock market is that you won’t win every time you enter into a trade. In fact, the manner in which you handle your losses will determine your degree of success, as much as what you do when you win. As in any sport or serious endeavor, the path to mastery is not about making one great move. Instead, a savvy investor learns to master his or her ability to trade the stock market by taking consistent disciplined action based on accurate thinking and sound investment fundamentals.

Comment: Remember the master strategy for success at playing Wall Street Craps: Always play the game correctly by making only smart bets, at the optimal time, and in the appropriate amount. Do this consistently as well as manage your money wisely and “Know Thy Self” so that you can adjust your play according to your unique individual temperament.

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“Yes, risk-taking is inherently failure-prone. Otherwise, it would be called sure-thing-taking.”

Tim McMahon ~ Featured in Money Talks by Rosalie Maggio (1998)

KNOW THE PROPER TIME FOR ENTERTAINMENT: Don’t trade the stock market for the sake of fulfilling your entertainment needs. Your goal in trading is to make fast money and then get out. The time to entertain yourself with the stock market is when you’re on the sidelines anticipating your next big move.

If it’s the thrill of “action” that you crave, then you would be better off taking a gambling trip to Las Vegas or Atlantic City. At least you can get free drinks for playing recklessly with wild betting schemes, when you’re at these places of entertainment. It’s much more appropriate to think of the stock market as a place for making serious money with disciplined thinking, rather than a place for receiving instant gratification with just plain luck.

Comment: Trading the stock market is very much akin to playing chess. Over the long haul of a person’s investing life, the outcome will ultimately be determined by consistent smart moves in terms of market tactics and money management. All of a person’s side issues regarding such things as the need to be right, the need for action, the need to feel special, etc. will only serve to undermine your trading and investing success. When it comes to playing the market for serious money, know that when you are holding trading positions, it’s all business and not necessarily for pleasure.

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“A successful trader is rational, analytical, able to control emotions, practical, and profit oriented.”

Monroe Trout ~ Trader and hedge fund manager

“TO SELL OR NOT TO SELL? THAT IS THE QUESTION!”: When you follow the price of stocks that you own, it is tempting to calculate how much money you have gained or lost up to that point. But this calculation is only relative to the stock price at which you bought your stocks.

Since buying and selling are essentially independent decisions to make, the captured buying price of a stock should not be a factor at all in determining when to sell it. By keeping the purchase price of a stock fixed in your mind, it will only serve to cloud your thinking and result in making an unwise trading decision to sell or not to sell.

This means that you will likely do two things when you regularly calculate your paper profits:

1. sell too early in an upward moving market and thereby miss out on potential profits, or
2. sell too late in a downward trending market and end up taking unnecessary large losses.

In both of these cases, the unwise decision to sell or not to sell is based on the investor’s fear. And that fear is the amateur’s avoidance of any emotional pain associated to taking a financial loss and, more importantly, admitting that he or she was wrong.

If you are not willing to take a loss and admit that you can be wrong, then you have no business trading or investing in today’s volatile stock market.

Comment: This doesn’t mean that you can’t play the stock market. It just means that trading the market over the shorter-term based on extremes in the underlying indicators is not suited for your temperament. What you can do is play the longer term in your “growth funds” and “security assets” portions of your portfolio in more value and income-oriented buy candidates.

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“If you can’t take a small loss, sooner or later you will take the mother of all losses.”

Jack D. Schwager ~ Author of The New Market Wizards (1992)

DON’T COUNT YOUR CHIPS WHILE YOU’RE PLAYING: Don’t count your gains and losses while you have positions in the stock market. This natural tendency will most likely cause you to trade based on the prices of your stocks instead of the underlying market indicators.

In order to reap large gains in the stock market, you must be able to hold a portion of your winning position longer than you’re emotionally inclined. And conversely, in order to avoid large losses in the stock market, you must be able to sell out of losing positions quicker than you normally would like. In both cases, it’s usually the practice of watching the price of the stocks they own that causes investors to sell at the less desirable time.

Comment: Always remember the masses exclusively follow price while the savvy players pay more attention to volume and breadth when it comes to the technicals. And in terms of sentiment, the masses love plenty of company to reassure them of what to do while the savvy players do the opposite of what the masses do at key turning points or extremes in the market.

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“Avoid ‘jogging in place’ with your portfolio. Failure to decide is, in effect, a decision. If you would not care to buy each holding in your portfolio each day, you should sell it (barring tax considerations).”

Bennett W. Goodspeed ~ Author of The Tao Jones Averages (1983)

DON’T PARTY WHEN YOU PLAY: The market doesn’t care if you’re on vacation or goofing off somewhere. You must either get out of your positions before you leave or else monitor stock market action after the close of every day while you’re away at play. And if the latter is the case, you must also have the presence of mind to take clear decisive action when necessary.

Not everyone has the experience or discipline to play the market correctly while their mind is somewhere else. Therefore, cashing out or lightning up your positions before you take a real or mental vacation might be the smart way to handle this situation. Otherwise, your play time may end up costing you more than you ever imagined beforehand.

Comment: I know this first-hand from the days before the Internet and when I used to take cruise vacations every October. Back then I couldn’t make trading decisions while I was away on a cruiseship. And the stock market had a not-so-funny habit of always crashing with me aboard every October.

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“If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right three or four times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong.”

Bernard Baruch ~ Legendary investor (1870-1965)

FOCUS WHILE YOU ARE PLAYING: When you hold positions in the stock market, refrain from as many distractions as you possibly can. Make it a daily practice while you’re in the market to know how the major indexes and underlying indicators performed at the end of each trading day. You never know when the stock market will give you an unexpected gift in the form of a spectacular one-day gain.

That’s why it is so important to pay attention to the market every single day when you’re holding stock positions. It could turn out that your window of opportunity to sell at a great price will be quite small when unexpected news-driven market events occur. As seasoned market players can attest, it’s not uncommon for a big up day caused by investor euphoria to be followed immediately by a sobering big down day. (Note: Never forget a Wall Street adage that reads: “Take windfall profits when you have them.” Sometimes the smartest move you can make is to simply “take the money and run.”

Comment: Always remember that the stock market doesn’t know when you bought your stocks. That means that you should be ready to sell at any time. Pay attention to the stock market whenever you hold positions in your “play money” trading account. Otherwise, you may find yourself selling on the market’s term instead of yours.

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“If there is a well-defined movement on at the close, it is more than an even bet that the next day’s market is to be a speedy one, for the closing movement usually carries on in greater strength and for a longer duration than the movements which develop and pass out again during the course of the usual day’s trading.”

Richard W. Schabacker ~ Author of Stock Market Profits (1934)

CATCH A HOT STREAK & RIDE IT: A stock market rally is more about longevity than it is about price. When it comes time to sell, accept whatever price the market gives you. Discipline yourself to sell out before the rally runs out of time.

Most amateur players only concern themselves with the price of the stocks they own. But when you buy investment vehicles like broad-based Exchange-Traded Funds, you’ll know that when the market is up, your stock value will be up and, conversely, when the market is down, your stock value will be down.

If the market gets on a hot roll, be content to take your profits on the way up no matter what the actual quoted price is. An obsession with meeting predetermined price objectives for individual stocks is what keeps many amateur players from selling when the time is right. A major key to trading success is the ability to maintain the mental discipline to buy and sell according to time rather than price.

Comment: When time becomes your determining factor in buying and selling, it is normal to occasionally be a day early and/or a day late. But you will be more likely to participate in a major move rather than be left behind by trying to wait for the perfect price to come in for you.

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“If you are in the right thing at the wrong time, you may be right but have a long wait; at least you are better off than coming late to the party. You don’t want to be on the dance floor when the music stops.”

Adam Smith ~ Author of The Money Game (1967)

FINE-TUNE YOUR BETTING STRATEGY: After you have gained valuable experience in trading, you can adjust your betting strategy to suit your own individual preferences.

For example: In my own trading account, I find it easier to buy three times over a three to five day period. This means that I don’t necessarily buy every day during the period of time that I identify as a bottom area. I will also make my first bet only one unit. I do this in order to eliminate the tendency to miss moves by wanting to time the market perfectly. Then I’ll make my second and third bets equal to two units, bringing my total for any one position to five betting units.

This strategy works for me because I’ve found that the hardest bet to make is always the first one. This 1-2-2 betting strategy also makes it easier to sell effectively if I choose to leave this particular market position in the same gradual progression. (Note: The 1-2-2 progression appeals to our basic antsy, fear-based behavior when it comes to trading the stock market. On the buying side, we are often afraid of missing out on an opportunity but scared of being too early. On the selling side, we can be fearful of losing a profit and having it turn into a loss. But at the same time, we are afraid of selling too early and losing out on the potential for further profits.)

Comment: If all of this seems a little confusing, then simply make of your bets small ones. I call these the “$5 Bets.” This is the smallest denomination of a betting unit and is one that any player with a $100 bankroll can feel comfortable about playing. Remember that the key to playing freely lies in not being afraid to lose – hence the $5 bet.

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“To obtain better than average investment results over a long pull requires a policy of selection or operation possessing a twofold merit: (1) It must meet objective or rational tests of underlying soundness; and (2) it must be different from the policy followed by most investors or speculators.”

Benjamin Graham ~ Economist & Professional Investor (1894-1976)