STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 25, 2018: The stock market gave us one chance to get out on Wednesday morning before the Fed’s announcement. But after the Chairman Powell’s briefing, the market tanked hard on the remainder of Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Monday of Christmas Eve Day. Needless to say, there was no “Santa Claus Rally” and investors are in total shock mode right now. As the internal indicators show, this is a gradual “crash” up to now and when it finally stops is anyone’s guess.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 2 or “Extreme Fear.” This confirms the action of the internal indicators above and suggests that we are near an internal low for the market. We may get a short and sharp rally soon, but in all likelihood we should see another visit to the established lows. It may take a classic “crash” in order for the market to finally hit bottom and reverse its downward trend. And with the most recent figures, that is going to take an intraday drop exceeding 1000 Dow points which is going to be scary. If I had to guess, I’d say that a rally should start on Friday December 28th after tax-selling season finally ends.
The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” has a current reading of “2” which is the lowest number since this indicator’s inception. This suggests that market sentiment is at levels last seen in the 2008-2009 bear market. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that the market is ready to go up just now. But what this does do is potentially indicate the location of the “internal bottom” of the market. The “external bottom” or lowest Dow Jones Industrial Average closing price will likely follow 2-5 weeks later. On this second “external bottom” there will be many non-confirmations to show it’s a final bottom. This type of set-up won’t happen until January.
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 16, 2018: The stock market continued its downward move by closing at its lows for this correction. With the majority of internal indicators showing readings in the 30s, a short-term bottom can be expected on Monday or Tuesday. That should set up the market for its anticipated “Santa Claus Rally.”
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 8 or “Extreme Fear.” This single digit reading after two months of “Extreme Fear” readings overall is sufficient to indicate that the general market is unloved and the sentiment has been severe enough it both duration and direction. This sets up the market for a year-end rally starting sometime between Tuesday and Thursday of this week.
Note: Thursday would match the recent 18-day cycle of lows from October 29 to November 23 in terms of number of trading days. Tuesday would mark the matching number of calendar days. Thus, a cyclical low can be anticipated between Tuesday and Thursday of this week. But remember that it will be tricky catching the exact bottom for it may mean trying to catch a “falling knife.”
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JULY 14, 2018: The market presented a tricky, short-term trading opportunity on July 3rd. It came from a semi-oversold condition which suggests that the rally will not be strong. So far, it appears as if the market can still go in either direction with the same degree of certainty. This is a time to be on the sidelines waiting for the next opportunity to set up. The Volatility Indicator will have to traverse across its oscillator from “overbought” to “oversold” which will probably take over a week to happen.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 47 or “neutral.” I’m still awaiting for a quick move into the “Extremely Fear” area in order to feel like the conditions are ripe for a more sustainable rally. So, we continue to wait for a better trading opportunity to the upside.
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MAY 19, 2018: The internal indicators of the stock market have been trending down the last few days, chewing up time, and possibly setting itself up for another trading bottom as early as late next week. Another plausible scenario is for next week to produce a bounce with a more stable bottom about two weeks out. In any event, there is nothing to do but wait for the next set-up and that can only happen with a bout of bad news.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 52 or “Neutral.” This doesn’t really tell you anything except that it has probably seen the worst in terms of extreme negative sentiment. One more quick trip to the “Extreme Fear” area will probably be all that it takes for another tradable intermediate term bottom.
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR APRIL 28, 2018: The stock market may be setting itself up for an intermediate-term bottom next week. The internal breadth indicators below are all close to oversold readings and additional weakness is sure to trigger buy signals. If a decline next week starts to materialize, then look at it as an opportunity to go long and ignore the “bad news” that has to happen in order to create the public selling. The trick will be if this happens mostly on Friday when it will take more guts to make trading commitments over an uncertain weekend.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 40 or “Fear.” This reading is after it has been in the “Extreme Fear” range for many weeks. I would expect a brief one or two day return to the “Extreme Fear” zone to coincide with a new intermediate buy signal on any weakness next week. If so, this “correction” will have scared enough weak hands out of the long game with only strong hands left to ride the next rally up. Of course, if we rally straight up from here then this scenario goes out the window and the deck will be “shuffled” once again.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy Tags: insurance, investing, investments, money, retirement, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stocks, tony robbins, trading, wall street
The “Fear/Greed Sentiment Index: What Emotion is Driving the Market Now?” has a current reading of 23 which is in the “Extreme Fear” zone. This suggests that the market is in a buying range and not a selling range. Tactically, this means that you should either buy or hold depending on your situation.
This indicator has remained in the “Extreme Fear” area for an abnormally long time. I would guess that it will leave this “oversold” area shortly and not return for some time. (After perhaps, one more spike down)
I would look to buy on any 2 to 3 day weakness that is accompanied by “obvious bad news” as the cover story for a good bottom in the market. I think that the next retest of the recent bottoms will be successful and that a sharp rally should follow. The only trick will be if the weakness occurs on a Friday where traders will have to sweat out the weekend of potentially more bad news.
Categories: Fear & Greed Index Tags: insurance, investing, investments, money, retirement, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stocks, tony robbins, trading, wall street
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MARCH 25, 2018: The stock market is setting itself up for a climatic bottom over the short-term. Breadth indicators are in “oversold” territory with the chance of become even more oversold if the market should sell-off on Monday-Tuesday. While a market panic is difficult to buy into, it may still be the proper strategy for buying low and selling high. But the proper to tactic would be to buy in smaller increments spread over 3-5 days during periods of weakness. This takes discipline that few amateurs possess.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 7 or “Extreme Fear.” With any weakness on Monday, this indicator will have the lowest reading in several years indicating a potential intermediate term bottom. To spread the risk, a wise trader should buy a combination of diversified broad-based ETFs and strong Blue-Chip dividend-paying stocks (example: Exxon, Microsoft, Apple, Wells Fargo). The first step would be to buy on extreme weakness in small pilot positions and add gradually. If a market panic should occur, it may take a few days for the market to stabilize or bounce. And then there is the possibility of a final wave down which a trader must be anticipate when conditions become so extreme as they are now.
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