STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR DECEMBER 25, 2020: The stock market has been hovering in the same range for several weeks now while digesting its substantial post-election gains. With many of the internal indicators near oversold readings, any short burst to the downside would produce a short-term buy signal worth taking a risk. It seems that the “Buy the Dip” strategy will continue to work into the future until it doesn’t.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator just broke below its 15-day moving average after “clustering” for several days near its high. This is a classic pattern for an intermediate term top. This would make a prudent swing trader or investor very careful at this time.
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 14, 2020: The stock market rallied strongly Post-Election last week with shorts getting squeezed and a radical rotation into low-performing basic industry stocks. But what happens from here is anyone’s guess. One thing seems certain: high volatility can be expected in these next couple of months and with that come trading opportunities for disciplined, clear-thinking swing traders.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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Short-Term Swing Trading Strategy: The market may be heading towards a 27-day cycle high for Wednesday November 18th. The next low would then be projected to Wednesday December 9th which is a 27-day cycle low. If the technicals match up well with this scenario, I’d be looking to make some trading moves to match the rhythm of the market.
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR OCTOBER 29, 2020: The stock market is in a clear correction and set up right now as we head into the November election. The internal indicators are mostly oversold or quickly approaching those levels. My guess is that a bounce is coming either today or tomorrow. But the real question will be: what will the market do after Election Day? I answer I expect: It will do the opposite of what it did in the days before.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator remains below its 15-day moving average and is expanding to the downside. Because of this indicator, a trader/swing trader should be very careful about waging too much capital on a long-side bet too early.
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 7, 2020: The stock market had a fresh break to the downside this past week. Could this be the long-awaited correction that will take us into October? Or will this simply be a “dip” to buy for another rally to new all-time highs. The NYSE McClellan Summation Index reading tells us to be very careful here – things can change quickly in this environment.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator remains below its 15-day moving average with a chance of expanding to the downside. Because of this indicator, a trader/swing trader should be very careful about waging too much capital on a long-side bet.
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: Categories: Stock Market Strategy, invest, investing, investing tips, investments, QQQ, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips, Tags: AAPL
STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR AUGUST 22, 2020: The stock market is hovering near its all-time highs in many indices. But the real strength has been in large tech companies like Apple, Google and Amazon. I suspect there will be one more rally coming soon since some indicators are showing “oversold” reading today.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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NYSE McClellan Summation Index: This key trend indicator broke below its 15-day moving average on Friday which has been an early sell signal in the past.
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JULY 12, 2020: The stock market is near the top of its trading range. After a large gap down last month, the market has held its own for a few weeks now. The question is whether the market will fill that gap soon or head down from here. In any case, it does not appear that a new All-Time High is likely or if it does reach a new high – that will mark the end of the rally since March 23rd.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market’s internal indicators are reading “neutral.” This means that it could go either way from here. The move that I think may happen is a new closing high to fill the June gap, but that high marking the top of this move since March 23rd.
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JUNE 16, 2020: The stock market made a sharp move downwards on last Thursday and has recovered much of that decline over the last 3 trading days. This sets up the possibility of a Classic Dow Theory and Granville Non-Confirmation sell signal on the next closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This new unconfirmed high could mark the end of this powerul rally since the March 26th bottom.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market is setting itself up for a possible sell signal on the next closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That new high would be unconfirmed by the majority of other indicators and particularly the Dow Jones Transportation Average which would need to rally substantially in the next few days. Note: The next closing high may even have one or two additional days to the upside with each day being progressively weaker and more selective.
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MAY 7, 2020: The stock market has been hovering in a tight trading range for the last couple of weeks. During this time, a few of the internal oscillators have come down to the “oversold” range. That brings the possibility of a short-term bottom in 2 to 3 trading days if the trend continues down. But be careful of a potential crash, too.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market is approaching a possible short-term buying opportunity as the internal indicators move down to oversold readings. But a trader must be careful not to jump the gun since there could be a downside break with momentum or a possible mini-crash.
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR APRIL 11, 2020: Last week,the stock market said “no” to the idea of an immediate retest of the previous lows that so many were expecting. Instead, it went straight up in the face of bad news where it now sits at the halfway point of the entire previous decline. With the internal indicators just below “overbought” levels, one could expect a few more days of strength before the top of this rally can be expected.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market may have a few more days of strength before it corrects this rally phase. It is anyone’s guess whether the market will decline or back and fill. But the stage can be set for an extended rally where the majority missed out at the bottom, the fear of missing out kicks in, and the market climbs the proverbial “wall of worry.”
“The market will do whatever it has to do to embarrass the greatest number of people to the greatest extent possible.” — Walter Deemer’s Law Of Perversity
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STOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR APRIL 2, 2020: The stock market made an internal bottom on March 23rd and rallied until March 30th. In the process of rallying, the general market became overbought and now is trending lower. It will likely take 3-5 trading days from here in order to become oversold. That means that a successful retest of the lows could occur early next week and be worth playing to the upside. But be careful……. let the oscillators become oversold and the volume to lighten up.
Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:
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THE BOTTOM LINE: The stock market made an internal low, bounced and is now in the process of retesting its March 23rd low. If a new closing low in the Dow Jones Industrial Average occurs without the majority of other major internal technical indicators confirming that action, we could be in store for a tradable bottom. Of course, this would likely occur in the face of obvious bad news. And as famed market technician, Walter Deemer, famously said, “When the time comes to buy, you won’t want to.”
Categories: Stock Market Strategy, Stock Market Timing Tags: invest, investing, investing tips, investments, QQQ, retirement, SPY, stock action, stock market, stock market timing, stock trading, stock trading tips