Archive

Posts Tagged ‘stock market timing’

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 10, 2018

November 10th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 10, 2018: The stock market made a huge upside move in response to the election results on Wednesday. The question is whether that move signified a breakout to a new highs or a last grasp top for the latest bounce. Since this is anyone’s guess, the next entry point would likely be an oversold condition in the majority of breadth indicators. But a strong move down from here and a resumption of October’s down move would certainly change the character of the market again. This is a time for caution, as well as a time for opportunity for those willing to accept the risks and stomach the volatility.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 18 or “Extreme Fear.” While this is still in the “Extreme Fear” category, it is far off of the lows from the previous two weeks. This might suggest that the market is simply retracing its strong move up with a chance of forming another pivot bottom in about 5-10 trading days. So be alert and ready to act on a brief buying opportunity ahead.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY NOVEMBER 3, 2018

November 3rd, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 3, 2018: The stock market had a key reversal on Monday that carried over all the way until Friday morning. In the process, it has recovered much of its losses over the month. Right now, several of the breadth indicators have short-term overbought readings suggesting that a retest of the previous lows could be in the making. If we are to assume that the bull market is only in a correction mode, then it would make sense to take positions on weakness as it nears last Monday’s previous lows. If that retest comes on light volume, then a reversal to the upside is even more likely.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 7 or “Extreme Fear.” This reading suggests that there is plenty of room for the market to rally. This time of year can be particularly tricky, but present several trading opportunities. But not everyone is suited for playing this much volatility and I happen to fall into that category. But a light volume retest of the previous lows would present a lower-risk entry point for the next ride up. But you never know about this market. It may just continue to go straight up from here.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY OCTOBER 21, 2018

October 21st, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR OCTOBER 21, 2018: The stock market has either completed its bounce or is in the process of retesting the previous lows. I have a hunch that whichever direction the market goes on Monday, the rest of the week will do the opposite. So if we get a rally on Monday, I’d be selling into that strength, but conversely I’d be buying on a retest of the lows. Of course this is a gamble, but something that I see as an opportunity for gain.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 14 or “Extreme Fear.” It has been in the this area for over a week and usually doesn’t stay here for more than two weeks. So the market is either going to rally here or is in the middle point of a decline into a lower-risk buying zone before the election.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY SEPTEMBER 30, 2018

September 30th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 30, 2018: The stock market is churning at a high consolidation area which neither good or bad. While it may seem like the market is overdue for a correction after this long rally, it still shows resiliency in the face of a mixed bag of political and economic news. With the three timing indicators set almost identically around the neutral reading of “50,” I’d expect the market to either correct into a short-term bottom or rally into resistance and a short-term top. But most of all, there is nothing to do right now.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 47 or “Neutral.” This makes the market within striking range of a quick move to “Extreme Fear” under 25 and a chance to a short-term tradable rally to participate in.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY SEPTEMBER 23, 2018

September 23rd, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR SEPTEMBER 23, 2018: The market’s rally has continued to push upwards while running into resistance. The current breadth indicators are presently in mid-range (neutral) and suggests that another challenge to new All-Time Highs is likely in the near term. If we should get an “oversold” condition in the coming weeks, it would be worth the risk to trade for another leg of the rally despite the time and extent of this bull run.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 75 or “Extreme Greed.” This doesn’t mean that the market is overbought and time to sell. But it does suggest that it is not the time to buy. That would come on a move to the “Extreme Fear” territory.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JULY 31, 2018

July 31st, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JULY 31, 2018: The market has dropped quickly into a semi-oversold condition. This would suggest that a bounce could occur in the next day or two. But after the bounce should come another wave down into a better buying opportunity. Be ready in case the market presents the right conditions for a tradable rally at the end of this week or the beginning to next week.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 64 or “Greed.” I’m still awaiting for a quick move into the “Extremely Fear” area in order to feel like the conditions are ripe for a more sustainable rally. So, we continue to wait for a better trading opportunity to the upside.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JULY 23, 2018

July 22nd, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JULY 23, 2018: The stock market has been hovering in a trading range for several weeks now. This choppy action presents only short-term trading opportunities. But rallies from oversold conditions have been producing profitable moves for nimble traders. With that in mind, I have selected what I consider as the four more reliable technical indicators when used together for short-term trading. This change is designed to make decisions easier to make with the understanding that only small & short-term trading positions are being maintained.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The market appears to be at a short-term top and it is time to step aside for now. Another short-term upside set-up will take at least another week to develop.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY JULY 14, 2018

July 14th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR JULY 14, 2018:  The market presented a tricky, short-term trading opportunity on July 3rd. It came from a semi-oversold condition which suggests that the rally will not be strong. So far, it appears as if the market can still go in either direction with the same degree of certainty. This is a time to be on the sidelines waiting for the next opportunity to set up. The Volatility Indicator will have to traverse across its oscillator from “overbought” to “oversold” which will probably take over a week to happen.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 47 or “neutral.” I’m still awaiting for a quick move into the “Extremely Fear” area in order to feel like the conditions are ripe for a more sustainable rally. So, we continue to wait for a better trading opportunity to the upside.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY MAY 19, 2018

May 20th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR MAY 19, 2018: The internal indicators of the stock market have been trending down the last few days, chewing up time, and possibly setting itself up for another trading bottom as early as late next week. Another plausible scenario is for next week to produce a bounce with a more stable bottom about two weeks out. In any event, there is nothing to do but wait for the next set-up and that can only happen with a bout of bad news.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 52 or “Neutral.” This doesn’t really tell you anything except that it has probably seen the worst in terms of extreme negative sentiment. One more quick trip to the “Extreme Fear” area will probably be all that it takes for another tradable intermediate term bottom.

WALL STREET CRAPS STOCK MARKET STRATEGY APRIL 28, 2018

April 28th, 2018 Comments off

craps front coverSTOCK MARKET STRATEGY FOR APRIL 28, 2018: The stock market may be setting itself up for an intermediate-term bottom next week. The internal breadth indicators below are all close to oversold readings and additional weakness is sure to trigger buy signals. If a decline next week starts to materialize, then look at it as an opportunity to go long and ignore the “bad news” that has to happen in order to create the public selling. The trick will be if this happens mostly on Friday when it will take more guts to make trading commitments over an uncertain weekend.

Key underlying short-term timing indicators show the following:

***********

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Fear/Greed Index is currently reading 40 or “Fear.” This reading is after it has been in the “Extreme Fear” range for many weeks. I would expect a brief one or two day return to the “Extreme Fear” zone to coincide with a new intermediate buy signal on any weakness next week. If so, this “correction” will have scared enough weak hands out of the long game with only strong hands left to ride the next rally up. Of course, if we rally straight up from here then this scenario goes out the window and the deck will be “shuffled” once again.